Entering Round Two with Oklahoma and Kansas State, there are two distinct schools of thought on the Sooners. Both camps have loyal members. I'll outline the arguments and then give my thoughts.
Camp One: OU is a tired team, burdened by carrying the torch of being No. 1 for five weeks. They were much better as an underdog. They're a young team that's over-achieved and are due for a reality check.
Camp Two: OU has simply played to the level of its opponent each week. Can't expect them to execute with precision every time. With the stakes this high, the Sooners will refocus for K-State.
Camp One: Defensive coordinators have figured out how to stop Josh Heupel: forget the blitz and play deep zones. The Sooners have been dinking and dunking -- plays longer than 25 yards have evaporated -- and when they do that, they are ordinary. Oklahoma State has one of the nation's most pitiful pass defenses and held OU to one TD.
|  | | Josh Heupel has been contained lately, but can he really be stopped? |
Camp Two: Mark Mangino will adjust to the "umbrella defense" by emphasizing Quentin Griffin's running and then unveil new ways to stretch the defense with the vertical game. Okie State got lucky by taking risks they hadn't all year in a "nothing-to-lose" game. Besides, it's not in KSU's character to play passive, patient defense. They'll still blitz and Heupel will again make them pay.
Camp One: Heupel's elbow is hurting. His arm went out last year -- and he couldn't deliver the ball downfield. It could be happening again.
Camp Two: No reason to panic. Heupel has an inflamed bursa sack, not the same dead arm malady he got last year. Besides, he's much stronger now. He's looked good throwing in practice this week.
Camp One: OU was lucky to escape Manhattan with a win the first time. If KSU's slow start hadn't taken them out of the game plan or if they hadn't dropped so many passes or if Josh Scobey had been discovered as the featured back, the Cats would have rolled.
Camp Two: KSU was lucky the 41-31 beating wasn't worse. If the Sooners hadn't allowed a blocked punt, the Cats would never have gotten that close. The OU team that came to Manhattan still had something to prove. Saturday, they arrive a supremely confident bunch.
Camp One: The Big 12 title game is hardly on neutral turf. It's in a stadium KSU has already won in (over Iowa in August) and the purple fans will outnumber the Crimson. The situation sets up perfectly for a KSU upset. Then again, the Wildcats are only a slight underdog to the number one team that beat them by ten on their own field. Shouldn't that tell you something? Cats win.
Camp Two: Forget the "Arrowhead" factor. The surface is grass, the Sooners' surface. KSU prefers the rug. Plenty of OU fans will make the trip, and the thousands of Nebraska fans who kept their tickets will pull for OU, if you believe chat room chatter. Even the weather, long feared to be a potential X-factor, should be OK for OU's pass attack. Sooners win.
So, which camp are you in? Camp One has widespread support, judging from talk shows I've heard this week. Everyone loves to be "ahead of the curve" and predict a contender's demise.
Don't be sucked in. Stoops' troops are at their best when being underestimated. They will play much better than they have been. Heupel's elbow is OK, and Mangino will build a better game plan. I just don't buy Arrowhead as a big KSU edge. OU destroyed Texas at the Cotton Bowl -- a "neutral" grass field.
But (and you can call this waffling if you like) Kansas State HAS improved since the first meeting, Oklahoma native Aaron Lockett will NOT play so keyed up that he catches the "dropsies" this time and Scobey is now a legit back. And don't forget Bill Snyder's staff has had two weeks to plot and plan for the rematch.
My God, I've taken both sides of this argument so long that I can't make up my mind. I'll come to some sort of decision by Friday night's radio show. Or by GameDay. Or by Saturday's pregame report on SportsCenter. Or maybe I'll just waffle all the way to kickoff.
SEC, take two
I'm not nearly as fired up for the SEC title game as I usually am. Florida's 38-7 rout in Round One with Auburn (same date as the first OU-KSU game) was even more lopsided than it looked. Rex Grossman had five TDs in his first ten completions. No wonder the Ball Coach says Rex "deserves the chance" to start and, if you believe Steve, finish the game.
True, Auburn rolls in off a road shutout of its arch-rival Alabama. And while Bama's searching for a new coach and the lame duck staff is out recruiting under the specter of an NCAA inquiry, the Tigers can savor a surprising division title and nothing worse than a Citrus Bowl matchup with Michigan. Yes, it don't get much sweeter than this for the War Eagle gang!
Florida comes off a humbling beating by their rivals, FSU. But there is more than enough motivation for a senior class that has not yet been fitted for SEC rings in its four years.
Auburn stays close, allowing Rudi Johnson to test the sometimes-soft belly of the Gators' run defense. Rex Grossman does not throw five first half TDs, but I cannot see Florida losing.
Coaching carousel
I'm not being cocky, but honestly, no coaching development so far this firing/hiring season has surprised me.
|  | | Frank Beamer did the right thing by staying at Va. Tech. |
I never thought Frank Beamer should or would leave his alma mater. It would have been for the wrong reasons: telling his bosses "up yours" for not ponying up seven figures and taking care of his assistants sooner. North Carolina is (at best) a lateral move. It will always be hoops-first in Chapel Hill. Frank belongs at the place he built. I congratulate him on superb playing of the leverage game.
Butch Davis heading to another school (Alabama) about to hit by further sanctions after finally getting Miami out from under the burdens of probation? Huh? Wasn't gonna happen.
Paul Hackett being canned? The No-Brainer of the year. One bowl game in three years (a loss to TCU!) will never get it done at a place with substantial talent. Now, can USC's next coach recruit and motivate players to play with chemistry, cohesion, commitment and heart? That remains to be seen but it's been a long, long time since an SC team has played with that kind of fire. I'm not sure if the bigger problem is the coaches or the mind set of the Men of Troy.
Maryland hiring Ralph Friedgen is a good move by the Terps' brass in bringing the alum home. He's not svelte, suave or polished. But Ralph is an offensive wizard who can squeeze the most out of players. I wish him well. It will make for an interesting Georgia Tech-Maryland matchup next year.
The ACC is in upheaval. There are three new coaches, George Welsh mulling retirement and Clemson and Georgia Tech replacing prominent offensive gurus (Rich Rodriguez off to West Virginia and Friedgen).
BCA's bad year
Maybe it was omen: lightning and monsoon conditions washing away the Tech vs. Tech matchup opening weekend in Blacksburg. The game benefits the Black Coaches Association, and the cancellation was the start of what's become a rough year for the group that endeavors to promote the advancement and hiring of minority coaches.
The firings of Jim Caldwell and Bob Simmons (two of the guys with established tenures at their schools) drops the number of black head coaches in Division I-A to four: Stanford's Ty Willingham, Michigan State's Bobby Williams, New Mexico State Tony Samuel and Louisiana-Lafayette's Jerry Baldwin. Four out of 115. It continues to be a disgrace to the sport. An embarrassment.
Goat vs. Mule
Someday, I will get to see an Army-Navy game. One of my few regrets is I never took the chance to travel to Philly in the days before my GameDay obligations. Maybe the show will make it to this spectacle some year. But this ain't the year, with the teams a combined 1-19, and Oklahoma protecting a perfect record in the Big 12 game.
Beano, I promise I'll make it one of these years.
Ten astounding hours
In compiling a season-ender essay for GameDay, it hit me again just how amazing the date October 28, 2000 was in the annals of this sport. In my memory, there's never have been a more compelling regular season day.
Consider the elements that were turned upside down within a few frantic hours of simultaneous chaos:
The top ranking, when OU beat Nebraska.
The Heisman race, when Heupel went off and Michael Vick went down against Pittsburgh.
The Rose Bowl picture, when Drew Brees and Purdue threw away, then regained the Big Ten's inside track minutes later against Ohio State.
Northwestern's three-TD rally and last second Hail Mary at Minnesota was a season-saving win that set up the Cats' share of the Big Ten title.
Oregon's Pac-10 leadership was over, until a return from the dead in the Tempe desert. The double OT win kept the Ducks in the hunt for the conference title, while Bruce Snyder's decision to try a fake PAT pass backfired. Two games later, he was fired.
Washington surrendered 22 straight points at Stanford and looked doomed before Marques Tuiasosopo led the Huskies 80 yards in 33 seconds for one of their five fourth quarter comebacks. All in all, the Huskies had seven wins by a TD or less in their Rose Bowl campaign.
Notre Dame's BCS at-large dreams looked dead, until Glen Earl, a backup DB, blocked an Air Force chip shot at the gun to force OT. The Irish prevailed, avoiding what would have been a crippling upset for Davie and Co. The Irish are bound for Tempe (to play Oregon State, my hunch says, if Oklahoma wins Saturday, or KSU if the Cats prevail). The Falcons remain in bowl limbo.
Clemson's perfect season died in Death Valley, thanks to one of the season's circus catches by Georgia Tech's Kerry Watkins. Yet another thrilling, last minute rally!
The BCS decimal duel took shape the night of October 28th, too. Miami's starters were long gone when seven-TD dog Louisiana Tech tacked on late points, shrinking the margin to a misleading 11 points. The BCS computers didn't know the difference. When Bobby Bowden later dragged poor Chuck Amato behind the woodshed, the love affair between the Seminoles and the Silicon brains behind the BCS formula began.
Think about all that stuff, all those heart-stoppers, all those games with far-reaching ramifications happening on side-by-side TV's simultaneously! It was a day we won't forget.
To see how all these moments played out in a chronological time line, check out the feature on GameDay Saturday morning. It was fun to write.
That's it. Hope to see you Saturday morning, when Bob Stoops will join us on the set from outside Arrowhead, following the Sooners' walk-through.
| |
ALSO SEE
College Football ... On Campus with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit
|
