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| Thursday, October 19 Chaos Theory alive and well in college football By Chris Fowler Special to ESPN.com | |||||
| The question I've spent a couple days pondering is this: "Can a butterfly flapping its wings in China affect the weather in New York City?"
The answer is yes. That means several Subway Series games could be delayed by rain.
The questions you're now pondering are: 1. "Has Fowler lost whatever mind he had?" 2. "Has life on the road with Lee Corso taken its toll?" 3. "Has one too many commuter flights to college towns had a profound impact on his frontal lobe?" 4. "Is he just groping for a lame hook on which to hang the otherwise over-analyzed issue of college football's current unpredictability?" The answers are: 1. Possibly. 2. Certainly. 3. Unlikely, but I do have a sinus infection. 4. You betcha! We are T-minus four days from the launch of BCS 2000, the barrage of numbers that annually dictates which two teams will play for the national title. The first BCS ratings are released Monday. Fess up, you can't wait to know what the math geeks think of TCU and Clemson. No? Well, don't worry, I'm not serving up a heapin' helpin' of fancy math today. But it is pretty interesting to get a first peek at how the numerical title chase might play out. I'll present my humble ideas if you read on. But first, I'll bet you're dying to know about this butterfly business. Chaos Theory Here's the idea: small events can trigger a series of increasingly larger events -- and ultimately have a profound impact in unexpected ways. For example, Furman clobbering The Citadel last Saturday hurt Clemson, and thus helped every other team competing for BCS decimal points. Back to that later. Secondly, Chaos Theory postulates that events that seem to be unfolding in a random and chaotic manner are in fact part of a greater, underlying order. In other words, huge upsets are part of the fabric of college football and should be expected. If you've thought about Chaos Theory, you're probably a math major or else you saw Jurassic Park. Remember, the Jeff Goldblum character (nutty scientist guy) who kept yammering about the deeper meaning of seemingly random genetic mutations and the folly of trying to dictate to nature? If anyone deserved to be eviscerated by a Raptor. . .well, we've gone a little off trail. TCU coach Dennis Franchione liked the Chaos Theory when we brought it up to him this week. "Sounds like a pretty good theory," he said with a laugh. Coaches know that small things lead to bigger things. That you have to anticipate the random surprises. Here's a "for instance." Let's say that next spring, a redshirt freshman backup offensive tackle suffers an ACL tear. He's out for the season. Seems like a fairly small speck on the larger landscape of the 2001 season. But then, six months later, the Canes' starting tackle goes down. Let's say Butch Davis has to shift his left tackle to the right side and promote a freshman guard to right tackle, where he's never played. In Miami's game with West Virginia, the rookie is overmatched and exploited by the defense. ... Ken Dorsey is harassed into a crucial interception in the third quarter. ... West Virginia pulls the huge upset. ... Don Nehlen's job is safe for another year. ... Miami loses the Big East title. ... Virginia Tech goes to the Orange Bowl. ... While on the bowl trip, a member of the Hokies band meets a model in a South Beach bar. ... They eventually marry. Hopefully, you get the point. Small events trigger other, larger events and can eventually result in unexpected outcomes. Granted, a Virginia Tech band nerd marrying a model IS unexpected, but chains of events like these occur every day. Coaches instinctively know this. That's why they moan when backup offensive tackles blow out knees in spring practice. BCS Relevance By now, you're probably screaming for me to get on with the relevance of all this to this season's national title game. OK.
The date always means the renewal of Alabama and Tennessee's ancient rivalry, of course. Trouble is, the backdrop for this year's matchup is a bit soiled. Tennessee enters the battle with a losing record for the first time since 1988. What's more amazing, the Vols are 0-3 in the SEC. Freshman Casey Clausen gets the start, with Phil Fulmer's idea being to "shake things up." Clausen has a big future, so they might as well toss him into a big rivalry and get him some seasoning. The preseason odds that Bama-Tennessee would have zero implications for the national title were pretty slim. Now, consider that Michigan State-Michigan, Purdue-Wisconsin, Penn State-Illinois, Virginia Tech-Syracuse, and USC-Stanford also lack either major impact or sufficient intrigue, or both. So, Gameday stays home this Saturday, to rest up for next Saturday's Big Red Battle in Norman. If you can afford to quit your job and follow us around each Saturday, consider it. We've already had the privilege to witness the most exciting string of games in the show's history: Nebraska's OT thriller at Notre Dame, Florida's last-minute rally to beat Tennessee on the controversial Jabar Gaffney catch, followed the next week by Drew Henson's heave to beat Wisconsin, the bedlam of Oregon's victory against UCLA, Miami's epic upset of Florida State and Oklahoma's 41-31 upset of Kansas State. Not a bad six-week run, huh? It's OK to hate us for being so lucky to watch these games for a living. We fully appreciate how sweet we've got it. So, come on down to Norman. It's bound to be a great one. Week after that, we'll be in Florida -- either at Miami for Virginia Tech's visit, or in Tallahassee for Bowden-Bowl II, both of which figure to have huge impact on the title picture. As Mr. Corso repeats nonstop, "Life is Good." By the way, while we're handing out props, keep in mind that Kirk Herbstreit has taken Corso's crown, at least for the time being. Kirk has picked the correct winners in all six of our road shows this season, including picks against Tennessee at home, and back to back outright upsets of top three teams Florida State and Kansas State. Lee had his 16-game "headgear pick" win streak snapped at Miami. Pac-10 upheaval This conference is divided into five tidy pairs of teams from the five geographic areas. Here's how they stack up in the conference race: 1. Oregon pair: 5-1 2. Arizona pair: 4-2 3. Washington pair: 3-3 4. Bay Area pair: 2-4 5. Los Angeles pair: 1-5 Most figured USC and UCLA would both be up this season. Once again, the conference has proven too wacky for the experts' forecast. The marquee event in the Pac-10 is the visit by surprising Arizona to mighty Autzen Stadium. The worst news for Oregon opponents is that Joey Harrington might have hit his stride. The Ducks' QB made USC pay dearly for selling out to stop the running of Maurice Morris, a JUCO transfer from Fresno City College who spurned the Trojans. Harrington threw for 382 yards and four TDs against mostly single coverage by a banged up USC secondary. Against Washington the game before, Harrington had one completion in the second half. If you were defending the Ducks, you'd emphasize stopping the run, too. Arizona will make that the first priority. But if Harrington remains sharp and the receivers hold on to the ball, Oregon will rip through a Wildcat defense that was exposed by Washington State. I think the Ducks roll at home. Can't wait for "The Civil War" with Oregon State, with the Rose Bowl at stake. Other "leans" South Carolina is rolling, coming off a bowl-clinching, super-satisfying payback whupping of Arkansas. But beware the Gamecocks' visit to Music City. Just get a feeling the Commodores, who out gained Georgia in last week's loss, will be more than pesky. South Carolina is very beat up and might just let down, even though Lou's on the warpath to prevent it. Colorado is also being killed by injuries, among other troubles. The Buffs' will likely be down to a third-team tailback Saturday at Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming off a rejuvenating rout of rival Missouri and are playing for a bowl game. They are home underdogs. That's a mild surprise to me. Drew Brees is ready to eliminate the multi-interception efforts against Wisconsin. Picks have been the only things that have prevented Purdue victories the past two meetings. Saturday at Camp Randall, Purdue slices through Wisconsin, which might be without Brooks Bollinger, the QB who was knocked woozy and lost his lunch behind the bench last week against Michigan State. Bollinger's concussion could force Jim Sorgi to make his first career start. True, Purdue already has lost once to a first-time starter (Gary Godsey and Notre Dame), but the Boilers control their Rose Bowl destiny and won't let it slip away here. Shameless promotional plug Hope you'll try to catch the On Campus radio show on the ESPN network of stations each Friday night with Kirk and myself. And see you Saturday for Gameday's "Homecoming" Show. Chris Fowler is the host of College Gameday and his column appears every Thursday. | ALSO SEE College Football ... On Campus with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit Corso: Not So Fast, My Friends Tirico: Waking up in a time warp | ||||
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