Big Ten championships ought to carry this warning: Past performance is not an indicator of future results. For the second straight season, it looks like a conference champion is headed for a rough season despite returning a strong nucleus from its title team.

Last year, it was Northwestern that melted down, going from 6-2 in 2000, when it shared league honors, to 2-6 in 2001, when it shared the basement.

This year, it's Illinois that appears to be headed south. The Illini returned 14 starters from 2001, when they went 7-1 in league play for their first outright championship since 1983. But that veteran core has been unable to keep it going. The Illini head into league play with a 1-3 nonconference record, including a 38-35 loss to San Jose State in Champaign last week that left the home fans booing the home team.

UConn Say It -- Football In Storrs

If Jim Calhoun's Huskies were off to a 2-2 start, it would be cause for alarm at Connecticut. But these are Randy Edsall's Huskies who are 2-2, and that's cause for optimism. Basketball is still the force. But football also is finding a home in Storrs, Conn. UConn, which went 2-9 last season, already has equaled that win total -- not bad for a school in its first official full season as a Division I-A competitor. "I felt going into the year we had a chance to be a better football team,'' said fourth-year coach Randy Edsall. "But I knew our schedule was going to be tougher, so I wasn't sure how that was going to translate in terms of wins and losses.'' Here's how: The Huskies have beaten Buffalo and Ohio in their last two games, building on a surprisingly competitive loss to Boston College and a rough day against Georgia Tech. But wins and losses aren't the only thing on Edsall's mind these days. Next season, UConn will put down another building block, a new 40,000-seat stadium, on its road to becoming a full-fledged member of the Big East Conference in 2005. Edsall, who began his coaching career as an assistant at Syracuse in 1980 after playing there, is well-suited to program-building. While he was at Syracuse, that program got a shot in the arm from the opening of the Carrier Dome. He was an assistant at Boston College until 1993, the year BC surprised Notre Dame, Penn State and Syracuse. The following year, he went with Tom Coughlin to Jacksonville to start up the new NFL franchise there. So he's well-acquainted with uphill, start-from-scratch assignments. "Every year, we get one step closer to completing the puzzle,'' said Edsall, who has a new selling point for this year's recruits; playing in the Big East as redshirt sophomores. "Having the opportunity to be in the Big East has allowed us to recruit a caliber of student-athlete we haven't been to recruit before.'' Fans are starting to notice. A crowd of 16,571 packed 16,200-seat Memorial Stadium with its largest Huskie football crowd for the 31-14 loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 7. Another 15,900 turned out for the Ohio game. And this week's home game against Ball State is a sellout. Freshman running back Terry Caulley, a 5-foot-7 178-pound freshman from Lusby, Md., has put together back-to-back 100-yard games and is budding offensive star for UConn. He also has the positive outlook Edsall is stressing. Asked about his lack of size, Caulley said, "Sometimes, it's an advantage. I can get lost in a pile and then just emerge.'' Could there be a better poster boy for an emerging football program? -- Herb Gould

How does this happen? How does a team that finished 10-2 struggle so mightily? One answer is that the Illini miss Kurt Kittner, their all-time winningest quarterback, whose passing opened up the running game and kept the defense from being exposed too often. Another answer is that outside of the losses Michigan and LSU, the Illini either weren't tested or they caught some breaks.

"Every year is different,'' Illinois coach Ron Turner said. "It's a new team, new chemistry, new leadership. Last year, we probably weren't as good as a lot of people thought. We played some games over our head and won some games on pure character and guts and found a way to win. We're not doing that right now.''

Turner's biggest complaint with his team, especially on defense, isn't that he's got a quiet bunch who don't push each other to stay fired up. Breakdowns on third-and-long were the biggest problem against San Jose State. A little toughness would have meant sacks and incompletions, instead of San Jose State first downs.

"The ability's there,'' Turner said. "We don't have the best ability in the Big Ten. But we don't have the worst, either. The ability's there. It just has to come together.''

The Illini will learn more this week, when they take on Michigan, and there is an encouraging precedent. In 1999, the Illini were 3-3, with a three-game losing streak, when they faced the Wolverines. They upset Michigan 35-29 and lost only one more game.

For all of its problems, though, Illinois might not be the biggest disappointment in the Big Ten. Also in the hunt for that dubious honor is Michigan State, which was expected to be a powerhouse thanks to the combination of Jeff Smoker, arguably the best returning quarterback in the league, and wideout Charles Rogers, arguably the Big Ten's best player. For all their hype, the Spartans limp into conference play 2-2, coming off losses to Cal and Notre Dame.

An 0-3 mark against the Irish -- Purdue and Michigan also lost to the Irish -- leaves the Big Ten 2-3 vs. top-25 teams in non-conference play. The two teams with top-25 wins, Ohio State and Penn State, look like the cream of the conference, but this still shapes up as a wide-open race.

Despite a 5-0 start, Wisconsin hasn't dazzled, but can't be overlooked. Even though they have struggled to beat some lesser opponents, the Badgers finished with a strong 31-10 win over Arizona and are likely to have All-Big Ten receiver Lee Evans back for their league opener against Penn State. Michigan's defense also keeps it in contention for the league title despite some offensive problems.

The darkhorse candidates include Iowa, which enters league play 3-1. The Hawkeyes, who couldn't deal with Iowa State's impressive Seneca Wallace and survived a narrow escape at Miami of Ohio, aren't imposing. But then, no one outside of Penn State and Ohio State is, giving the other schools hope. Even Illinois remains determined to shake off its early-season problems.

"We won the Big Ten championship last year, and we can still do it again this year,'' linebacker Joe Bevis said. "We can still finish the season 9-3, win the Big Ten championship and go to the Rose Bowl. "We're only a third of the way done. We've got eight more games. But we're not going to do that unless we get people to step up and be leaders and we pull together as a team.''

At this point, though, it would be a monstrous surprise if Illinois repeated.

Around the Big Ten

Illinois
Illinois' Big Ten home opener against brings back memories of the last time Michigan came to Champaign. In 2000, the Illini were on the verge of beating the Wolverines at home for the first time since 1983 until two late fumbles left them with a 35-31 defeat. The Big Ten later apologized for errors on the calls. Turner marked this week's return of the Wolverines by calling for sweeping reform of the way Big Ten games are officiated. "We need to take a good look at everything -- how they're hired, how they're graded, how they're trained, how they're rewarded. The whole process needs to be continually looked at,'' said the Illinois coach, who experienced replay reviews when he was the Bears' offensive coordinator. "How any coach in the conference could not be for instant replay boggles my mind. The officiating in the NFL was much more consistent. They're human. They're going to make some errors. That's why they have instant replay. Here, there seems to be -- no, I better be quiet. But it definitely could work at this level.''

Indiana
Indiana prepares for Ohio State encouraged by a strong second-half comeback in its 39-29 victory over Central Michigan, which had opened a 26-16 lead. "There wasn't any panic,'' coach Gerry DiNardo said. "We were down 10 points to a team, but our coaches really had a lot of poise and put together a good second-half plan. And this team deserves incredible credit for how hard they played in the second half. Putting together a plan doesn't do you any good unless the team plays as hard as it played.''

Iowa
Iowa hopes to keep the momentum of a 48-7 thumping of Utah State going when it travels to Penn State this week. The Hawkeyes, who believe they are a serious contender for the league title, have won their last two meetings with the Nittany Lions, including a 26-23 double-overtime win at Penn State in 2000. ... The Hawkeyes are tied for fourth in the nation in total offense (488.8 yards a game) and third in run defense (46.8 yards a game). The question mark is their pass defense, which ranks 114th (305.8 yards a game) and could be exploited by Nittany Lions quarterback Zack Mills.

Michigan
Michigan coach Lloyd Carr is concerned about faulty kicking that has left the Wolverines 3 for 11 on field goals. Philip Brabbs kicked a game-winning 44-yarder against Washington, but is 3 for 9. "He has a tremendous leg, but is inconsistent,'' Carr said. "Is he kicking as well percentage-wise as we would like? No. You just have to have faith and confidence that it will get better.'' Punter Adam Finley, who is 13th in the nation with a 43.7 average, has been working on field goals in practice and could be given a chance in games.

Michigan State
Wide receiver Charles Rogers, who can set an NCAA record for consecutive games with a touchdown reception against Northwestern this week, said bruised ribs won't keep him from playing against the Wildcats. "It's real tender. If the game was today, I couldn't play,'' Rogers said. "The good thing is, we don't play until Saturday.'' Rogers, who caught two touchdown passes in the Spartans' 21-17 loss to Notre Dame, has made a touchdown catch in 13 consecutive games.

Minnesota
Minnesota is off to its second 4-0 start in four years. After their 4-0 start in 1999, the Gophers wound up 8-4, including a 24-20 loss to Oregon in the Sun Bowl. But Gophers coach Glen Mason, unhappy with the way his team bogged down after building a 24-0 lead in its 41-17 victory over over-matched Buffalo, wasn't satisfied. "We've got a lot of work to do,'' Mason said. "We need to get better in a hurry.''

Northwestern
Northwestern coach Randy Walker was pleased with the progress of freshman quarterback Brett Basanez in the Wildcats' 49-40 shootout victory over Navy. Walker, who had simplified the offense in NU's 26-21 victory over Duke the previous week, decided to open things up a bit against the Midshipmen. "We decided to give Brett some latitude and get him going,'' Walker said. "He's doing a good job of playing smarter than he did initially. Brett has a great future. We just have to get him playing better and better.'' Basanez completed 20-of-26 for 260 yards against Navy and did not turn the ball over, which has been a concern.

Ohio State
Playing without freshman tailback sensation Maurice Clarett, the Buckeyes squeaked past Cincinnati 23-19. The Bearcats outgained Ohio State 415-292 and dropped two potential touchdown passes on their last drive. "I'm sure we missed Maurice, but there were some things we could have done a lot better,'' said Ohio State coach Jim Tressel, who expects to have Clarett back from arthroscopic surgery for this week's Big Ten opener vs. Indiana. "Cincinnati did a great of of lining up and coming after us.'' ... This is Ohio State's second 4-0 start in three years. In 2000, the Buckeyes wound up 8-4, including a 24-7 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl.

Penn State
It was only Louisiana Tech, but Penn State continued to look impressive in its 49-17 victory. Considering its 40-7 rout of Nebraska, the Nittany Lions head into Big Ten play looking like a strong contender for the conference title, which has proved elusive. Despite being one of the nation's most storied programs, Penn State has won only one Big Ten championship (in 1994, when it went 12-0) since coming into the league in 1993. ... In three games, Penn State has seven interceptions, one more than it managed in 11 games last season. The Nittany Lions are plus-six in turnover margin after posting a Big Ten-worst minus-11 mark last year.

Purdue
Purdue, which dropped to 2-2 after a 24-21 loss to Wake Forest, knows 10 lost fumbles have spelled trouble in its sluggish start. The problem is, running backs Joey Harris, Montrell Lowe and Jerod Void, who have combined for nine of the fumbles, all have had trouble holding onto the ball, leaving coach Joe Tiller with limited options in terms of personnel changes. ... Receiver Taylor Stubblefield's return from an offseason fractured skull was marred by a lost fumble. Stubblefield failed to cover a dropped lateral, allowing a Wake Forest defender to recover it. ... Defensive end Kevin Nesfield, who had 12 tackles against Wake Forest, is questionable for this week's Big Ten opener against Minnesota due to a sprained knee.

Wisconsin
All-Big Ten wide receiver Lee Evans, who underwent major knee surgery last spring, is expected to make his season debut against Penn State on Oct. 5, when the Badgers return to action after an open date. But Evans, who has been practicing with the team since training camp, still has not received medical clearance for game action. ... A 31-10 victory over Arizona has quieted critics of Wisconsin's 5-0 start, which featured some shaky games against weak teams. "There's been some concern about not playing our best football, yada, yada, but right now we're sitting 5-0,'' quarterback Brooks Bollinger said. ... Wisconsin is 5-1 in its last six games coming off of bye weeks, and 6-4-1 overall under Barry Alvarez.

Around the Independents
Connecticut evened its record at 2-2 by defeating Ohio 37-19. After trailing 19-6, the Huskies scored the final 31 points of the game. Much of the credit goes to the defense. "They motivated us," freshman running back Terry Caulley,who rushed for 117 yards and two TDs. "We saw them fighting and fighting, and we tried harder.'' ... Navy piled up 678 yards of offense against Northwestern, the third-best offensive game in school history and punted only once. But five turnovers left the Midshipmen pondering a 49-40 loss to Northwestern. "We're not talented enough to beat anybody when we do that,'' a disappointed Navy coach Paul Johnson said after Navy's 11th straight home loss. ... Notre Dame, off to a 4-0 start that is its best since 1993, will take advantage of this week's open date to try and get quarterback Carlyle Holiday healthy. Holiday injured his left shoulder in the third quarter of the Irish's 21-17 victory at Michigan State. "It couldn't be a better time to have a bye," said coach Tyrone Willingham, who's hopeful that Holiday will be ready when Stanford comes to South Bend on Oct. 5. If not, Pat Dillingham, who threw the game-winning touchdown to Arnaz Battle at Michigan State, will go. Holiday was injured when a Spartan defender landed him at the end of a bootleg play. ... In 1993, the last time the Irish started 4-0, they wound up 11-1. A perfect season was spoiled by a 41-39 loss to Boston College in their last regular-season game. ... South Florida faces another tall order when it travels to Oklahoma this week. But the Bulls, who are coming off a 42-3 rout at Arkansas, the worst loss the young program has endured, used an open date to regroup for the meeting with the Sooners. "This is a process, a journey, that's going to take time,'' coach Jim Leavitt said. "But I think our team will be resilient. I believe in this football team. I think they'll battle.'' ... Troy State, which travels to Missouri this week after falling at Iowa State 42-12, faces another uphill battle against a Big 12 opponent. But the Trojans are taking comfort in the fact that they won't have to deal with Seneca Wallace, Iowa State's explosive quarterback. "All those quarterbacks who are in the running for the Heisman Trophy can't do what he can do,'' Troy State coach Larry Blakeney said after Wallace completed 17 of 25 passes for 295 yards and three touchdowns, and added a rushing touchdown against the Trojans. ... Utah State gave up touchdowns to Iowa's defense and special teams as well as the Hawkeyes' offense in a humiliating 48-7 defeat. "Often times, you're able to put your finger on where you're bleeding," Utah State coach Mick Dennehy said. "I don't know if I have enough fingers to put a bandage on everything we need bandaged.'' On the plus side, the Aggies will have a chance to put their experience to good use this week against Boise State.

Herb Gould covers college football for the Chicago Sun-Times.