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Wednesday, April 12
Arizona hoping to duplicate Spartan trend

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

Editor's note: This will be the last Weekly Watch for the season. The feature will return in our college basketball preview in November.

The storyline: Michigan State's model
Wondering who's most likely to pull a Michigan State next season? Arizona fits the Spartan profile just fine. Loren Woods and Richard Jefferson did like Mateen Cleaves and Morris Peterson, spurning the NBA draft to get another shot at a title (Woods will be a senior, Jefferson a junior).

What's ahead

Chris Mihm's decision: If Texas gets Mihm back, the Longhorns have a chance to be a top 10 team. Texas will add shooting guard Maurice Evans from Wichita State, which will keep defenses off Mihm. If he's not there, the Longhorns will struggle to finish in the top four in the Big 12.
Quentin Richardson's decision: If Q returns to DePaul, the Blue Demons should be a repeat NCAA team and one that has a chance to go deep in the tourney. Without Richardson, the Blue Demons can still be a Conference USA contender, but will search for a go-to player.
Finding that gem: The late-signing period runs from April 12 to May 15 and the pickings are slim. Junior college players are the last lot to pluck from and teams that need a quick fix -- like Iowa State -- are hoping to find the sleeper late in the spring.
Testing dates: Darius Miles (St. John's signee), DeShawn Stevenson (Kansas) and Mario Austin (Mississippi State) need to get eligible before May 14 or they could all bolt for the NBA. If they don't qualify, all three schools could be searching for a last-minute signee.
Transfer destinations: Unlike a year ago when more than 70 players found new addresses, players are staying home. But a few may change their mind over the next month as the school year winds down. Recruiting for this group will intensify in May and early June.

While both Arizona stars suffered through injuries that might have made it less likely for them to be high draft picks, Woods and Jefferson have a good chance to take Arizona to the Final Four next season. The Wildcats return all five starters and add enforcer Eugene Edgerson (who redshirted last season) as well as freshman Andrew Zahn.

If the Wildcats are healthy in '00-01, they should return with the drive and desire to earn another No. 1 seed, get to the Final Four and be the team to beat in Minneapolis.

Team of the offseason
Duke: The Blue Devils will face a critical summer in the weight room. Casey Sanders has to get stronger to be more of a factor next season. He wasn't this year, largely because he didn't have the strength to survive inside. But the Blue Devils must get Sanders to be presence at least as Carlos Boozer's backup, if not on the floor next to him.

Duke, which will be a preseason No. 1 for a number of pundits, also needs to massage the egos of Jason Williams and incoming combo guard Chris Duhon. The two should get together this summer and try to blend as a tandem. Both are scoring point guards and need to settle on their roles before the first day of practice.

Player to watch
Kenyon Martin is gone. Marcus Fizer left a year early. So, who is the favorite for player of the year? It just might be Joseph Forte. The North Carolina freshman was sensational in the NCAA Tournament. If he improves over the summer by getting stronger, improving his ballhandling and defense, Forte could be the preseason pick for player of the year. Forte is further ahead of schedule than any other freshman.

Climbing up
Notre Dame: OK, so the Irish didn't get into the NCAA Tournament. But they did get valuable time playing together in the NIT, losing in the final game to Wake Forest. The Irish not only return forward Troy Murphy, but they also add Ryan Humphrey to their stable next fall. Humphrey, a transfer from Oklahoma, should take some inside pressure off Murphy and prevent double teams in the post. If the Irish guards can improve their ballhandling and shooting, this team has a chance to be preseason top 25.

Falling down
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys face a rebuilding phase after losing seniors Joe Adkins, Doug Gottlieb, Desmond Mason, Brian Montonati and Glendon Alexander. That group did what it was supposed to do in delivering the Cowboys to the Elite Eight. But, through the natural cycle in college basketball, Eddie Sutton must bring together a new group in a rugged and improving Big 12.

Five teams to watch
Tennessee: No one seems to be buzzing about Tennessee. Yet, the Volunteers return their entire nucleus (assuming Tony Harris doesn't declare for the draft) as well as one of the best kept secrets in last year's freshman class (Ron Slay). If this team gets better over the summer like Cincinnati did a year ago, the Vols could be the team to beat in the SEC.

Kentucky: Staying in the same league, the Wildcats have a core group of Tayshaun Prince, Marvin Stone, Keith Bogans, Jules Camara, Saul Smith, J.P. Blevins and are likely to keep suspended guard Desmond Allison. There's no reason why Kentucky can't stay with Tennessee and Florida in the SEC East.

Maryland: Terence Morris stayed and the Terps have reason to celebrate. If they can get their defensive performance against UCLA (or lack thereof) out of their heads, the Terps have their core back to compete with Duke and Carolina for the ACC title and a deeper NCAA Tournament run.

Stanford: The Cardinal lose Mark Madsen and David Moseley but add redshirt Justin Davis, who brings Madsen-like intensity with a better scoring touch, and will get a boost from the return of injured shot-blocker Curtis Borchardt. He missed the postseason with a stress fracture. The backcourt is back, too, allowing the Cardinal to compete for Arizona for the Pac-10 title and, yes, a No. 1 seed.

North Carolina: The only hole on this team is at the point. Joseph Forte is back. So, too, are Jason Capel, Kris Lang and Brendan Haywood. Throw in point guard Ron Curry, forward Brian Bersticker, forward Jason Parker, point Adam Boone and guard Brian Morrison and that should make the Tar Heels one of the deepest teams in the ACC. Curry and Bersticker are back from injuries and Parker, Boone and Morrison could continue a recent trend of freshmen having big impacts at Carolina.

Question these five
UCLA: If the Bruins lose both JaRon Rush and Jerome Moiso to the draft, UCLA will once again be in need of reliable scorers and a defensive presence inside. The onus will be on Dan Gadzuric to improve his skills and not just his strength this summer. The Bruins would need to find another scorer on the wing, either on the roster or in the spring, to replace Rush.


	Ernie Kent faces a tough task in keeping Oregon in contention for the NCAA Tournament.

Oregon: The Ducks added Luke Ridnour, but the biggest test facing this program will be how they survive the losses of Alex Scales and A.D. Smith. Elite programs can lose a few key guys and still get back to the NCAA Tournament. Is Oregon at that level yet?

Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane face a similar dilemma with the loss of Brandon Kurtz, Eric Coley and Tony Heard. Tulsa has the personnel and the homecourt advantage (hosting the WAC tournament) to get back to the NCAAs, but Bill Self may be relying even more on his defense to get Tulsa back to the dance.

Iowa State: The Cyclones will be guard-heavy next season, which will make it tough to match up with the more physical teams in the Big 12. Larry Eustachy has been a tough, defensive coach, and like Self, will have to rely on his team's quickness to survive next season.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes will be playing without Scoonie Penn for the first time in three years. Ohio State's rise to the elite in college basketball has been with Penn at the helm. The test for Jim O'Brien will be can they stay at this level without him?

What looks good for next season
Utah's additions: Rick Majerus is taking a gamble by adding troubled point Travis Spivey. But if Spivey can settle down and take control of the Utes while listening to Majerus, he has a chance to lead a team capable of making a deep NCAA Tournament run.

Spivey joins a team that returns senior center Nate Althoff, redshirt guard Nick Jacobson, junior forwards Phil Cullen and Jeff Johnsen and junior point Gary Colbert, and will be bolstered by forward Britton Johnsen, guard Trace Caton and center Jon Carlisle (all back from Mormon Church missions), and center Chris Burgess (Duke transfer). Add signee Kevin Bradley and the Utes are a threat out of the West.

Wyoming's redshirts: The Cowboys will give Utah a run for the Mountain West title with Ugo Udezue (injured this season) and redshirt Uche Amadi back in the lineup. Add these two to forward Josh Davis (one of the best-kept secrets in the game) and Wyoming has a top-25 frontcourt. Get decent guard play and the Pokes could be a problem for people.

Seton Hall's recruiting class: The Pirates have the most heralded recruiting class in Eddie Griffin, Marcus Toney-El and Andre Barrett. There shouldn't be a bump in meshing these three with Ty Shine, Darius Lane and Samuel Dalembert for a run toward the Big East title.

Virginia's and N.C. State's hunger: The Cavaliers and Wolfpack slipped late in the second half of the ACC season and fell out of contention for NCAA Tournament berths. Virginia was knocked out of the NIT in round one by Georgetown while the Wolfpack made it to the final four in New York. Both have their core returning and should expect, not hope, to be in the NCAAs in '01.

The sleeper teams: Remember, no one talked about Wisconsin, Iowa State or LSU this year, or Ohio State the previous year. The early read on potential sleepers includes Memphis, South Carolina, Cal, Iowa, Georgetown and South Florida.

What might not look good
Connecticut without Khalid El-Amin: Don't expect the Huskies to look as bad as they did when El-Amin went down in the NCAA Tournament vs. Tennessee, but there's no doubting El-Amin's impact as a winner. Finding that attitude and leadership won't be easy, even with the addition of Taliek Brown at the point in the fall.

Replacing DerMarr Johnson and Kenyon Martin: Cincinnati still has talent on the wing and inside, but the Bearcats will surely miss Martin's inside dominance and leadership and Johnson's deft outside touch. Those were the two things that made Cincinnati a threat to win the title before Martin's injury. Instead, it was a second-round NCAA exit for the fourth year in a row.

The Atlantic 10: The league lost its best chance for its first Final Four team since '96 when Temple lost in the second round to Seton Hall. The league has potential tournament teams in Temple, Xavier, George Washington and Massachusetts but lacks a lock for the top 10 -- maybe even top 25 -- like it had this year.

The hype on Illinois: The Illini need to produce next season after a year where they were probably overhyped (even here). The natural progression for this program (Big Ten tournament title game in 1999, NCAA second round in 2000) is to challenge for a high seed and make it to the second weekend of the tournament. But the offseason is critical for strength and conditioning for Brian Cook, who could be a dominant player if he improves.

Kansas: The Jayhawks return their core group of players but they may strike out on the newcomer front if incoming freshman DeShawn Stevenson isn't eligible. Kansas already looks to be out of the running for Travon Bryant. Kansas should be better, simply because its young players will improve during the offseason. But the Jayhawks face a critical juncture in their development -- do they go from good to great?

Andy Katz is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His Weekly Watch appears every Sunday during the college basketball season.