2001 NCB Preview

M COLLEGE BB
Scores
Schedules
Rankings
Standings
Statistics
Transactions
Teams
Players
Recruiting
Message Board
FEATURES
NIT
Fans Poll Top 25
D-II Tournament
D-III Tournament
CONFERENCES


ESPN MALL
TeamStore
ESPN Auctions
SPORT SECTIONS
Monday, March 10
 
Championship Week Top 10 List

By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN.com

Welcome to a special Bracketology edition of the "Top 10 Things to Remember During Championship Week":

10) Polls don't matter: In fact, I recommend repeating this statement until fully absorbed. Every highlight package this week will begin with ranked playing teams in their respective conference tournaments. Come Selection Sunday, however, I guarantee you that a team's ranking will have little (and more likely nothing) to do with its eventual NCAA seeding and placement.

9) The BCS conferences will receive an inordinate percentage of the at-large bids: The ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10 and SEC got 27 of the precious 34 at-large invites last year, and there is no reason to expect anything significantly different this time around. What is the current projected total of at-large bids for these six conferences? Funny you should ask ... it's 27 on the nose.

8) There is an average of about one team per year to receive an at-large bid with a losing major conference record: That average will hold again this year, as Alabama (SEC, 7-9, RPI No. 33) figures to see its name on the big board.

7) The same conference can receive more than one No. 1 seed. In fact, it happens more often than you think. Last year, Duke and Maryland were both tops seeds out of the ACC. The year before that it was Michigan State and Illinois from the Big Ten. In 2000, Arizona and Stanford did a Pac-10 double dip at the top of the bracket. So when the Big 12 (or perhaps SEC) does it this year, don't be surprised.

6) All four No. 1 seeds will not reach the Final Four: It has never happened, in fact. Three No. 1 seeds last advanced together in 1999.

5) A BCS conference member will win the national championship: Or at least one has every since 1990. UNLV won the last non-BCS title over Duke that year in the most lopsided championship game ever. Of course, the Blue Devils were so crushed that they came back to become repeat champions in 1991 and 1992.

4) Fewer mid-majors will have reason to beef this year: Really. Creighton, Southern Illinois, Butler and Gonzaga will be in the tournament regardless of the results of their respective conference championship games. And both Weber State and especially Wisconsin-Milwaukee have solid at-large candidacies. All of which is a good thing.

3) Really good teams will get lower seeds than they deserve in favor of really average BCS member schools: Utah, Creighton, Saint Joseph's, BYU and Butler head that list.

2) There is a human element: Think of it this way: You're on the committee; you have every stat in the world in front of you; and it's time to vote on the last team for the final at-large spot. Surely your subconscious reaction to those school names becomes part of any vote. Multiply this by 10 people in the room, and you'll have a better idea of why we'll all have something to scratch our heads about on Sunday night.

And the No. 1 thing to remember during Championship Week ...

Three factors rise above all others. Who did you beat? When did you beat 'em? And where? Ultimately, those questions provide the final answers to all that is bracketology.

Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He may be reached at bracketology@comcast.net.








 More from ESPN...
Lunardi: Georgia's 'domino effect'
So, just how did Georgia's ...

Bracketology: Projecting 2004's field fo 65
Just where will Syracuse ...

Bracketology Insider
Go deeper inside ...

Bracketology: Less mid-major madness
Allowing the best mid-majors ...

 ESPN Tools
Email story
 
Most sent
 
Print story
 
Daily email