On Saturday in Milwaukee, Butler will play a semifinal game in the Horizon League tournament. The Bulldogs and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, the top two seeds in the event, have a bye into the league semis this year.

The West Coast Conference and Metro-Atlantic Athletic Conference have new and similar arrangements for Championship Week. In the WCC, top seeds Gonzaga and San Diego benefit from a re-structured bracket with a bye into the conference semifinals. In the MAAC, regular-season winner Manhattan will also sit tight until only four teams remain.

	Darnell Archey readies for the Oklahoma challenge.

A year ago, you may remember, last-place Wisconsin-Green Bay nipped Butler, 49-48, in the Horizon quarterfinals. Ultimately that loss, after wins in 25 of its 29 starts prior to the conference tournament, relegated Butler to the NIT.

Now, the Butlers and Gonzagas need to win only two games to claim an automatic NCAA bid. Perhaps more importantly, the changes in their respective conference tournaments have greatly reduced the possibility of the dreaded "bad loss." And, by playing only the better teams in their leagues, the RPI "hit" that often comes from beating bottom-feeders is also minimized.

So there are procedural reasons for more mid-majors to be optimistic this March. Thankfully, there are also basketball reasons. It says here that Butler, along with perhaps both Gonzaga and Southern Illinois, have already tied up NCAA at-large bids. None are "locks," of course (we've learned that the hard way!), but these three "mids" are in the best position to survive a stumble as conference tournaments begin play later this week.

Butler, in particular, has a much stronger profile than it did a year ago. Southern Illinois is not as strong as last season, but neither is the pool of "bubble" teams from the traditional multi-bid conferences. I'm here to tell you that there are going to be some very mediocre teams seeded No. 11 or No. 12 come Selection Sunday, and that should make it even easier for the men's basketball committee to do the right thing -- that is, take an extra mid-major or two instead of a seventh team from the SEC or Big 12 or wherever.

Butler, in my view, is already safe. At 23-4 overall and as champions of the No. 14 conference, the Bulldogs are in. They project as a No. 9 seed this week and simply cannot fall far enough to miss the NCAAs, even if they were to lose a Horizon semifinal game.

Gonzaga is obviously not the national contender it was a year ago, but, again, the Zags have won the regular-season championship of the No. 10 conference. They also scheduled an insane non-conference road tour in response to last season's disappointing No. 6 seed. These Bulldogs are also in.

Southern Illinois is even hotter right now than Butler and Gonzaga. The Salukis also hold a one-game lead on Creighton with only a visit to Illinois State standing between them and the regular-season Missouri Valley title. Win that one, and SIU can relax heading into its conference playoffs.

Weber State (Big Sky), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Manhattan (MAAC) and Charleston (Southern) are much less comfortable. The tournament committee has generally not dipped down the conference rankings far enough to take regular-season champions from these leagues. Heck, even Fresno State isn't safe for an at-large bid due to the lack of quality competition all year in the WAC.

Perhaps the most interesting mid-major case of all is Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers are among our "Last Four Out" this week, but have suffered buzzer-beater losses the past two Saturdays to Southern Illinois and Butler. The Panthers also stand to host round three against the Bulldogs in the Horizon final.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if two Horizon teams go dancing this month. But don't ask me about the MAC, because anyone who says they know how that muddled mess will unfold is lying.

Oh, and did I mention that Creighton is a "lock?" If the Bluejays lose in the MVC tourney and are passed over, I'm hanging up my brackets for good.

Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He may be reached at bracketology@comcast.net.