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| Monday, February 17 Updated: February 23, 3:26 AM ET 'Bracket Buster' does matter ... for some By Joe Lunardi Special to ESPN.com |
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The idea was overrated from the start. As much as I tend to side with quality mid-majors, the whole Bracket Buster Saturday concept was destined to be more style than substance. Why? Well, no matter how good the matchups or advance planning, it is only one game. In other words, Tulsa at Gonzaga counts no more on Feb. 22 than it would on Nov. 22. The visibility may be higher and the P.R. value of the entire slate of games certainly draws attention to the cause, but, as a component of each participant's NCAA calculus, it is still only about 1/30th of the formula. And, three weeks after the event, when the NCAA men's basketball committee is deliberating in Indianapolis, do you really think Detroit at UC Santa Barbara is going to make a significant difference in the eventual 2003 bracket? Didn't think so. The committee is either going to have a philosophical shift or it's not. It's going to recognize that a Butler or a Ball State has achieved everything it possibly can at the mid-major level, and is thus deserving of positive at-large consideration, or not. But until that shift occurs -- one which places a whole lot less value on some sixth- or seventh-place team in a major conference -- no bracket will be busted, only dreams. Having said that, there are some intriguing individual contests coming up on Saturday. Let's look at each from the intended perspective; namely, the potential impact on the respective team's NCAA at-large chances:
Gonzaga (WCC) 69, Tulsa (WAC) 60 Tulsa, 0% Gonzaga, 40% Neither team has really lived up to expectations, especially Tulsa. So the Golden Hurricane needs this game desperately. Tulsa hasn't won a meaningful road game since the WAC schedule began. Got to go with the Zags. Gonzaga could certainly solidify its at-large chances. Tulsa probably can't do enough to save theirs.
Creighton (MVC) 67, Fresno State (WAC) 66 Fresno State, 35% Creighton, 40% Fresno State has no at-large profile of note, other than playing in a traditional multi-bid league. Creighton, because they're better. The Bluejays will avoid falling another seed line with a victory.
Southern Illinois (MVC) 66, Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Horizon) 64 UW Milwaukee, 10% Southern Illinois, 20%
That's a toss up, as both teams have realistic NCAA hopes at this point. The Salukis, who have more experience in big games and who generally face better competition. Yes, the loser can pretty much forget about an at-large bid.
Hawaii (WAC) 79, Kent State (MAC) 78 Hawaii, 0% Kent State, 30% You'd think Hawaii, but I'm not buying the Rainbows' at-large chances at all. All of which places Kent, the "last team out" in this week's NCAA projections, squarely on the hot seat. Both teams have NCAA Tournament talent, but one can't win on the road. Kent in a walkover. Only if Kent State loses.
Detroit (Horizon) 75, UC-Santa Barbara (Big West) 59 Detroit: 0% UC Santa Barbara: 5% UC Santa Barbara, because at least the Gauchos have a slim chance at an at-large bid.
Illinois-Chicago (Horizon) 83, Bowling Green (MAC) 72 Bowling Green, 0% Illinois-Chicago, 0% No one. The wrong teams from each league are participating.
I have no idea. Only to UIC's NIT chances.
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) 84, Ball State (MAC) 79 Ball State, 0% Western Kentucky, 5% What was a marquee pairing in October finds only WKU alive, and barely, in the at-large pool. Go with the Hilltoppers, who seem to have hit their stride. Probably not, as WKU's real hurdle to the NCAAs is Louisiana-Lafayette.
Illinois State (MVC) 57, Marshall (MAC) 53 Illinois State, 0% Marshall, 0% Yuk. Double yuk.
Northern Iowa (MVC) 76, Louisiana Tech (WAC) 71 Northern Iowa, 0% Louisiana Tech, 0% LaTech by default. Same as above. As it turns out, the Bulldogs may have been better off with a non-DI opponent in this spot.
Joe Lunardi is the resident Bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. He may be reached at bracketology@comcast.net. |
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