Fresh Impact

Jay Bilas

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Sunday, December 22
Updated: December 24, 2:04 PM ET
 
Better breed of freshmen? No, just a featured bunch

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

The most discussed trend of the early season has been the impact of freshmen in college basketball.

It was a trend that started before the first tipoff when Duke opened practice with the nation's most heralded recruiting class, headlined by Shavlik Randolph, the most skilled big man Mike Krzyzewski had ever brought to Durham.

It is not that, 'freshmen aren't freshmen anymore.' It's 'upperclassmen aren't upperclassmen anymore,' or more to the point ... 'Upperclassmen aren't even around campus anymore.'
Jay Bilas

The season then tipped off in New York with Syracuse rookie Carmelo Anthony pouring in 27 points against Memphis in the Orangemen's loss. Anthony's prodigious beginning was followed by Florida's Matt Walsh and Anthony Roberson putting up eye-catching numbers in early-season Gator wins. And the zenith of freshman precocious play was reached by North Carolina in the Preseason NIT.

When Tar Heel freshmen Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Sean May stormed the Big Apple, slapped around Kansas and Stanford, the Rookie Revolution seemed well underway and the college basketball world seemed to be spinning off of its axis. Let the upperclassmen eat wood, the seemingly bionic freshmen now refuse to wait their turn any longer ... No PT, No Peace!

We have heard it over and over against this season: "Freshmen aren't freshmen anymore." The basis for this statement always starts with AAU basketball, and the argument that today's freshmen are far more prepared than they used to be.

Baloney.

Freshmen may be playing bigger roles in college basketball, but it is not just because these freshmen are better, stronger or faster than those of years gone by. Freshmen are playing bigger roles out of necessity, plain and simple, more than any other reason.

It is not that, "freshmen aren't freshmen anymore."

It's "upperclassmen aren't upperclassmen anymore", or more to the point ...

"Upperclassmen aren't even around campus anymore."

With this statement in mind, here are some of the factors behind the growing influence of freshmen, and reasons why the young bucks are filling up stat sheets.

Young Man's Game
Freshmen are not that much better now than they used to be. The game is just much younger.

Ten or 15 years ago, very few freshmen earned starting spots, and it was rare for a freshman to carry a significant load without having to rely upon upperclassmen to lead the way. It used to be that bad or middling teams were the only places where freshmen were relied upon to produce from Day 1. But, with more and more underclassmen foregoing college for the NBA, more high-profile programs are forced to rely upon freshmen to play significant minutes -- not to mention, become their stars.

Without experienced upperclassmen, there are too many holes to fill in starting lineups, expected or otherwise, for young players to be brought along slowly.

In the old days, freshmen would take their lumps from experienced, talented, junior and senior lottery picks. The fresh faces were routinely exposed as too young and unprepared to make a real impact over the course of the season.

Today, freshmen are playing against their contemporaries -- other freshmen and sophomores. Instead of getting schooled by older, more experienced players with just as much talent, they are getting "pre-schooled" by their own young peer group.

That's why there will be more Kent States and Gonzagas in coming NCAA Tournaments. Teams who may not get the top-flight recruits each season, but who stay together for four years, and have a core of older, experienced players whose combined talents overcome any individual deficenties. These teams with seniors will have an advantage over superbly-talented but painfully young teams.

Maturing In The Right Situation
Not all 18-year-olds are of the same maturity level, mentally or physically. These players are the basketball equivalent of toddlers. Some toddlers walk and talk earlier than others, but they all get it eventually. Whether a freshman takes flight right out of the gate is not the true measure of his worth as a college player. Some players need more time to mature.

For example, I put up better numbers my freshman year at Duke than one of my fellow freshmen at Maryland. I was a freshman starter, and a Terp you may know wasn't. His name was Len Bias, and he turned out to be just a little better player than Jay Bilas by the time we graduated.

Particular playing situations often dictate the success many young kids can enjoy. I can promise you that Michigan's Daniel Horton and Florida's Roberson would be perceived differently if they switched situations. Horton has to function in the basketball equivalent of a war zone, while Roberson has the benefit of senior leadership around him, minus the threat of sanctions.

Fresh New Thing
Freshmen who carry the load are now more visible than ever before. Their "newness" has taken the spotlight off older players. And, because so many of the elite programs, those with names like North Carolina, Duke, Florida, Illinois and Georgia Tech now are forced to play freshmen in more prominent roles, we are seeing more freshmen up close on television.

It seems as if these fresh faces are taking over the game. But, don't be fooled. Juniors and seniors are still leading the way in college basketball.

While there are exceptions, and while they may be filled with promise and potential, if freshmen are proven to be anything, they have proven themselves to be consistently inconsistent. For the great games turned in by Florida's Walsh and Roberson, they still stumbled on the road against West Virginia. While McCants, May and Felton lit up Madison Square Garden, they got lit up at Illinois and against Kentucky.

While freshmen got "next", and are garnering time on SportsCenter, the experienced players in college basketball got "nets", and will be the ones cutting them down in March and April. Why? Because experience and talent usually wins out over just great talent.

These freshmen have yet to be truly scouted, planned against, and have not had to go on the road in truly hostile conference arenas. They haven't hit the wall yet, and haven't had to play through being tired.

For some reason, the college basketball community is fixated on the new faces with potential and future possibilities. We wonder what they will be able to do, instead of assessing what they can do. If a player stays to be a junior or senior, we pick at his game, discussing his deficiencies instead of his potential, and we overstate the importance of the young kids at the expense of the veteran college players.

The effect is chasing even more players out of college early. With uninformed speculation, we have sacrificed the outstanding juniors and seniors in the game at the altar of potential and newness. We talk about the promise of Felton, instead of the greatness of Kirk Hinrich. We praise the potential of Anthony, instead of the prominence of Luke Walton. We are taken with the early impact of Walsh, instead of the steady excellence of Matt Bonner. We've seen the older guys do it over and over again, and lose interest in them is they don't show us something new and improved, or dazzle us with the spectacular.

Many college basketball commentators spend too much time talking about a collegian's pro prospects at the expense of his college accomplishments. When Mario Austin returned to the Mississippi State lineup and scored 29 points and grabbed nine rebounds against Xavier's David West, the college basketball cognoscenti opined immediately that he would be gone for the NBA. The overstatement includes the constant quoting of unnamed NBA scouts on a young player's prospects.

How many times have you heard, "Scouts love his potential," or "One NBA scout loves the freshman as a first-rounder"? Then the kid goes in the second round, and has pitched away his eligibility and perhaps his career.

It matters little what unnamed scouts think or say, it matters what their bosses do on draft day when their turn comes up. The hyping of young kids should be dialed down, and the respect level for the veterans should be ratcheted up.

Freshmen are doing a great job across the country, and they are certainly needed by the best of programs. Clearly, freshmen load carriers are here to stay. But freshmen are still freshmen, which means they will be up and down and inconsistent.

To paraphrase Forrest Gump, "Freshmen are like a box of chocolates ... you never know what you're gonna get."

Give me the experienced juniors and seniors first, the ones that have been through the wars and know what it takes to win. They are the ones who will hang banners and cut down nets. And they'll take the freshmen phenoms with them.

Jay Bilas is an college basketball analyst for ESPN and frequent contributor to ESPN.com.







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