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| Thursday, January 24 Updated: January 25, 12:08 PM ET Hoosiers host healthy defending champs By Jay Bilas Special to ESPN.com |
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No. 8 Illinois at Indiana
Indiana, despite the loss to Ohio State, remains just a half-game behind the Buckeyes in the Big Ten race, while Illinois moved to 4-2 in the Big Ten with its win over Wisconsin. While Illinois was expected to be at or near the top of the Big Ten, the Hoosiers were not, and have bounced back very nicely from a difficult early-season schedule that saw Indiana struggle on the road. Indiana is a better team than its personnel suggests it should be. The Hoosiers do not have great quickness or speed at the guard position, they do not have multiple scoring options, and they do not have great size or depth. What the Hoosiers do have is a multi-talented forward in Jared Jeffries, who has brought everyone on this team together. Mike Davis has relied upon sets that put Jeffries in the low post, and the Hoosiers play off of him very effectively. Hoosier guards Tom Coverdale, Dane Fife and Kyle Hornsby are stand-still jumpshooters and do not shoot effectively off the dribble, nor do they create their own shots. Because Jeffries commands double-teams down low, he can look opposite or step out and deliver passes to Hoosier guards for open shots. Jeffries averages 17 points and 7 rebounds, but has been playing his best in Big Ten play, averaging over 20 points on 52-percent shooting in league games. Coverdale is a savvy player, and he has averaged almost 15 points in Big Ten games. Jeffries and Coverdale have to be the primary focus of the Illinois defense. Illinois is looking like a more complete team, now that Lucas Johnson and Damir Krupalija are back playing. Johnson has been out of action since October, and the Illini have not been as tough since he went down. Illinois runs several multiple-option sets that feature ballscreens, flairs, high-low looks and staggered screens, and the Illini can be very hard to guard. Defensively, Illinois plays mostly man defense, with little switching, and will occasionally throw out a 1-2-2 press. Frank Williams is the best point guard in the country not named "Jason", and has the ability to take over games, especially down the stretch. Williams is able to get to the free-throw line and is a clutch player, and when the game is on the line, he can get to the basket and get almost any shot he wants. Brian Cook continues to show flashes of brilliance, but he is still working to be consistent on a very high level. Cory Bradford is in a good shooting rhythm right now, and Robert Archibald has been one of the steadiest interior performers in the Big Ten. After tough losses, Illinois is playing like the defending champion everyone thought the Illini would be. Key matchup: Jeffries vs. Cook Jeffries is one of the top 10 frontcourt players in the country, and is proving to be a match-up nightmare for opposing coaches. Jeffries caused Michigan State to double him, which the Spartans rarely do and is quite a compliment to Jeffries, and the Indiana big man made the Spartans pay by finding his teammates for open looks. Cook has all of the ability a coach could ask for, and can play with anyone. When he is hitting his shot, Cook shows the confidence of a great player. When he is not, he can be ordinary. Key Stats: Rebounding and Turnovers Illinois is a better rebounding team than Indiana, and if the Hoosiers want to win, they need to hang tight with Illinois on the glass. The Hoosiers are protecting the ball better than any other team in the Big Ten, but must be strong with it against a very physical defensive team in Illinois. What to watch For: Watch how Illinois guards Jeffries, and how the Hoosiers adjust. If Illinois decides to double Jeffries when he gets it into the post, the Illini will have to rotate effectively to cover up. Because Jeffries is so effective, expect Illinois to give him extra attention and force the other Hoosiers to make plays. No. 7 Virginia at No. 1 Duke
After emotionally investing in this team to an unprecedented level, Krzyzewski has successfully refocused his players on improving daily, and on playing inspired team defense. This Duke team is incredibly explosive offensively, but it does have some holes. The Blue Devils are not a great rebounding team, but can hang on the glass well enough if all five guys go to the boards on every possession. Duke is not as strong on the interior as some other teams nationally, but the Blue Devils' ball pressure can help make up for that. Duke is not deep, and Krzyzewski has shortened his bench, going longer with the players that can give him consistent production. Good teams can exploit the Blue Devils' relative weaknesses, but they have to do it for 40 minutes in order to win, and only a handful of teams have the ability to do that, especially in Cameron. If Duke continues to play defense the way it has since the loss to Florida State, the Blue Devils will be very difficult to beat -- for anyone. Virginia is a quality basketball team, and the Cavaliers have talent at every position. Pete Gillen has put together a program that can compete with anyone, and he has a true star in Roger Mason, Jr. Mason is a versatile slasher who can get his own shot, and get it quickly. He is a complete player who is third in the league in scoring at close to 19 points per game, and has scored in double figures in 25 straight games. Mason is playing the point for Virginia, which affects him as a scorer. But, overall, he has handled it very well -- although it is difficult for him to get others involved and still look for his own opportunities. Mason has a lot of help, with an outstanding big man in Travis Watson, an underrated and productive forward in Chris Williams, and an outstanding interior prospect in Elton Brown. Virginia plays a chaotic style. To be successful against the Cavs, teams must be in top condition, handle the ball and be able to make plays on the run. To beat Virginia, however, teams must have good transition defense, getting back quickly and in passing lanes, keeping the Cavs off of the offensive glass, defend against dribble penetration, and neutralize Watson. The Cavaliers run motion and sets, using ballscreens, stacks and high-low looks. Defensively, Virginia employs a swarming, trapping defense that has great backflow, and the Cavaliers get steals and deflections. Virginia, as good as they are, will have to get over a mental hurdle to beat Duke in Cameron. Over the last few years, Virginia has not only lost at Duke, but has been blown out. The key for Virginia will be to stay close and competitive early, and to not get behind from the start. Key matchup: Carlos Boozer vs. Watson Boozer has been playing very well, and has played with passion and intensity that so many have opined was missing from his game because he is a reserved personality. Boozer had a career-high 28 points against Boston College on Thursday night, after going for 20 points and 18 rebounds against Wake Forest, and he is doing a better job defending in the post. Watson is the best rebounder Virginia has had since Ralph Sampson, and leads the ACC in rebounding at over 10.8 rebounds per game. Watson is a lefty with great post moves and can be an absolute monster inside. Look for Virginia to go to him early, and for Duke to attempt to keep it away from him by pressuring the ball and denying vision of passers into the post. Key stats: Rebounding and Free Throws Every game Duke plays will require a focused effort on the glass, but especially against Virginia. The Cavaliers can send several terrific athletes to the glass, especially Watson, Williams and Brown. Duke is attacking pressure very effectively, and the Blue Devils are getting to the line with regularity. Virginia does not get near the credit they deserve as a defensive team, allowing only 39-percent field goal defense, second in the ACC, but the Cavaliers have to keep Duke off of the line to win. What to watch For: Watch how Virginia goes to the glass, and how Travis Watson works inside. Although a pressing team, the Cavaliers take a workmanlike attitude and really go hard to the boards. Gillen, despite his jokester demeanor, is a hard worker who instills that ethic into his team, and he is one terrific basketball coach. Watson is a player who should garner far more respect and acclaim than he seems to get. All he does is come to the gym, go to work, and kick your tail. He is a man's man inside, and if you do not play all out on every play against him, Watson will destroy you. |
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