Familiarity breeds upsets -- but not this time
By Ed Graney
Special to ESPN.com
The question came quickly because, well, who would know better?
Gene Keady, 63 and in his 20th season coaching Purdue basketball, had just
been denied another chance at reaching his first Final Four. And all anyone at
the West Regional final in Albuquerque last week wanted to know is this:
|  | | Mateen Cleaves is quite familiar with Wisconsin's slow-down style. |
Can Wisconsin, the program that has encouraged every two-handed chest pass
rom Milwaukee to Middleton and every contested shot from Madison to Monona,
win the national championship?
"Of course," said Keady. "You have to understand how difficult they can
make it on you. When it gets down to those four teams, there are no guarantees. It's
very hard to crack that defense. You'd better be ready for them, or believe me, they'll
beat anyone.
"If you're gonna face them for the first time, brother, you're gonna have
your hands full."
Michigan State, of course, isn't naive to Wisconsin's ways.
Michigan State is a whole different animal.
Keady was speaking before it had been decided the Badgers would face the
Spartans in one national semifinal on Saturday in Indianapolis. It will be
the fourth time the teams have met this year. Michigan State is three-and-oh.
Who has the advantage? Opinions differ.
This is still a game that demands you make shots, however few in Wisconsin's
case, to earn success. MSU won the three games (two in Big Ten Conference
play and one in the league's post-season tournament) by an average of 10.3 points.
More telling is Wisconsin's point totals: 44, 46 and 54.
"A lot is made about our defense, but what gets overlooked is the fact
Michigan State is one of the best defensive teams in the country," said Wisconsin
coach Dick Bennett. "They're very hard to score against and we obviously haven't found
many ways."
High praise this, considering the Badgers defensively are more committed
than a group of Navy SEALS in search of a fallen comrade. Wisconsin is the team
that held LSU to 14 first-half points. The Detroit Tigers score that many runs
in an inning sometimes.
And yet the Spartans can match such intensity. Scary.
Wisconsin thrives on making more athletic teams (which means anyone from
your son's pee-wee squad to the Lakers) adhere to its plodding ways, tricking them into a
maze of deliberation. But the Spartans in handling Wisconsin this season
avoided the self-destructive path of tournament teams like Fresno State, Arizona, LSU
and Purdue.
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We know what Michigan State does and they know what we do. Any edge you had earlier in
the tournament is gone.
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Wisconsin guard Jon Bryant
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The cliché suggests it is harder to beat someone a second or third time in
one season, so you figure a fourth might flirt with impossible. But the
Spartans, unlike most who have stood across from the Badgers this month, know enough not to
swallow the bait.
Tom Izzo's team won't rush shots. It won't force passes. It won't panic.
Probably.
"It's no different than playing Purdue in the Elite Eight," said Wisconsin
guard Jon Bryant. "That was our fourth time playing them. There are no secrets. We
know what Michigan State does and they know what we do. Any edge you had earlier in
the tournament is gone.
But there has to be an edge. There always is.
Fact: Matchups don't favor Wisconsin at any turn. The Spartans can play
slow and win, something they did in each of the previous three meetings. Michigan State shot
just 34 percent in Madison and still won by 17.
The difference is Mateen Cleaves.
"A nightmare for us," said Bennett.
Both point guards rank among the Big Ten's all-time leaders in
steals, but it is Michigan State's star (and not Wisconsin's Mike Kelley) who has been
the driving force when these two meet. Cleaves in the three games averaged 11 points and
six assists.
"We never really have been able to solve all that he does," said Bennett.
"We haven't been able to stop him from controlling tempo."
Which isn't good for Wisconsin, because if its hand isn't planted firmly on
a game's pace, what card can it really play to compete?
Keady is correct. Wisconsin, the team that lost to South Florida and
Northern Illinois and finished sixth in its conference and is trying to culminate one
of the best stories college ball has witnessed in years, can win the national
championship. It can stand alone Monday evening in the RCA Dome, cut strands of twine hanging
from their fingertips.
It would be much easier, though, if the guys in green didn't know the
Badgers so well.
Ed Graney of the San Diego Union-Tribune is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. |
