Maybe it's a bit premature to just anoint a Big Ten team as one of college basketball's Final Four.

After all, there's a non-conference season that hasn't even started. There's a whole slew of conference games and conference tournaments on the schedule. And there's even those first two weekends of the NCAA tournament still out there.

Big Ten Projections

Here are ESPN.com's Big Ten projections and previews of each team: 1. Michigan State 2. Indiana 3. Wisconsin 4. Minnesota 5. Illinois 6. Ohio State 7. Michigan 8. Purdue 9. Iowa 10. Northwestern 11. Penn State All-Big Ten Team G: Tom Coverdale Indiana, Senior G: Kirk Penney Wisconsin, Senior F: Brian Cook Illinois, Senior F: Rick Rickert Minnesota, Soph F: Jeff Newton Indiana, Senior Most Valuable Player Kirk Penney, Wisconsin Newcomer of the Year Ben Johnson, Minnesota Freshman of the Year Bracey Wright, Indiana

But isn't all that just a formality? Can't we just save a lot of trouble and just make plans for one of the Big Ten teams to be in New Orleans?

Oh, that's right, the season does have to be played. Otherwise how do we know which team gets to play at the Superdome and which school's co-eds can expose themselves on Bourbon Street and just maybe end up in a "Girls Gone Wild" commercial? We have to figure out which team is going to be the surprise this season.

Yes, the games need to be played.

You think that's premature? You think that the Big Ten is down, don't you? That the conference of big men, hard rebounding and physical play isn't as good as it used to be. You think that the loss of players like Jared Jeffries and Marcus Taylor and Frank Williams has diminished the league's star power.

Yes, there are those skeptics out there. Yes, there are people who say the Big Ten is nothing but the fourth- or fifth- or sixth-best conference in the country. Things could certainly play out that way, it isn't outside the realm of possibilities.

But before you shovel dirt on the Big Ten and say the league has become tired and worn out and passe, consider a couple of things.

Over the last four seasons, the Big Ten has had six teams in the Final Four, more than any other conference. The ACC, which leads with two national titles in that span, has had five appearances. After that, there's a huge dropoff with the Big 12 sendings its only two teams last year, and the Pac-10, Southeastern and Big East boasting a single team each.

But the number of appearances might not be the most impressive part of the Big Ten's recent run. What's more impressive is that four different schools have reached the Final Four: Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and last season's national runner-up Indiana.

While the Spartans were a No. 1 seed each of the three times it reached the Final Four, the other three schools were a bit of a surprise, to say the least.

The Buckeyes were seeded fourth in 1999, but beat that year's top seed in the South (Auburn) to get to the Final Four. Wisconsin might have been the ultimate long shot a year later when the Badgers barely got into the tournament after finishing conference play at 8-8. But the eighth-seeded Badgers upset top-seeded Arizona in the first second round and gave up fewer than 60 points per game in the run to the Final Four.

Last season, it was Indiana that made the surprise trip. A fifth-seed, Indiana defeated top-seeded Duke on the way to Atlanta.

So how has it happened? How has the Big Ten been able to become this league that churns out Final Four teams?

The theory popular with league top dog Jim Delany is that the success is a result of the Big Ten adding a postseason tournament. After clinging to tradition for eons, the Big Ten held it's first tournament in 1998. A year later the run began. Coincidence? Delany thinks not.

His theory, which is shared by many of the league's coaches, is that the tournament helps sharpen a team's attitude and helps them gain that win-and-advance attitude.

Is the theory right? Who knows for sure. There's probably been other factors like good coaching, a good draw and even luck, but the theory is as good as any.

So with that being said, there's really only one thing left to figure out as this season begins in the Big Ten. Who's going to be the team this year?

There are certainly suspects. Four of them actually. Maybe five. Maybe more?

"I think there are a lot of teams that can win the league," Izzo said.

Michigan State and Indiana are probably the most logical candidates.

The Spartans enter this season as the Big Ten favorites. Tom Izzo has depth that he didn't have a year ago when Michigan State didn't always have enough healthy scholarship players to practice 5-on-5. He also has a boatload of talent, albeit young talent.

The sophomore class of Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert and Chris Hill played a ton of minutes last season, more than Izzo would've liked. And now Michigan State has added a freshman class that features McDonald's All-American Paul Davis, guard Maurice Ager and junior college transfer point guard Rashi Johnson. Throw in seniors Aloysius Anagonye and Adam Ballinger and the Spartans are pretty good.

And one more thing: That Izzo guy can coach a bit.

Indiana has to be on the list if for no other reason than because of what they did last season. Sure the Hoosiers were 7-5 at one point last season, but they rolled to the Final Four.

This year's Indiana will test the theory on whether guards really do rule college hoops. The Hoosiers have a lot of them. Tom Coverdale and Kyle Hornsby return as does A.J. Moye, but then Davis added freshmen Bracey Wright and Marshall Strickland. Now we'll see if that's enough to make up for the loss of Jeffries.

If you want longer shots, there are three of them as well. They're not long shots like the 2000 Badgers were, but more like the '99 Buckeyes or '02 Hoosiers.

Wisconsin: FYI, these are not the Dick Bennett Badgers any longer and players are no longer described as "blockers" and "movers." Bo Ryan's Badgers will still guard, but there's a lot more athleticism.

Illinois: The Illini, which will start two freshmen guards, are probably a year away from being able to make a real run. However, Bill Self's team has a lot of talent, is extremely athletic and has a go-to guy in Brian Cook. The question is whether Illinois can rebound.

Minnesota: Dan Monson's team has a ton of talent in the frontcourt led by sophomore forward Rick Rickert. The Gophers were very good in stretches last season and if their guard play is decent, Minnesota could be a sleeper.

So upon further review, the college basketball season does need to be played. There are too many candidates for Big Ten surprise team to know now what's going to happen.

But one thing is certain. There are going to be Big Ten fans drinking hurricanes at Pat O'Brien's in early April and a Big Ten team is likely going to be playing at the Superdome.

The question is which team's fans will be watching their own team?

Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune (www.startribune.com) is a regular contributor to ESPN.com