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Friday, February 21
Updated: February 23, 9:56 AM ET
 
Believe it or not, RPI can lie

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

BYU is better than Maryland and Pittsburgh.

Right?

That's what the numbers tell us. At least those found on unofficial RPI rankings released each Monday on the Internet. The Cougars are rated No. 18 in the latest RPI. Pittsburgh is at No. 24 and Maryland at No. 32.

And check out these numbers: BYU's strength of schedule is rated No. 11. Pittsburgh's is No. 67. Maryland is 51.

Huh?

Inside the RPI
The RPI is filled is oddities, some explainable, others not so easy to understand. Here is a look at some strange instances of teams either being perceived to be ranked too high, or too low, based on certain criteria (Team's RPI updated through Feb. 20 games):
Road Record
 
School
Div. I
W-L
 
RPI
 
SOS
Road
W-L
vs.
1-25
vs.
26-50
Duke 18-4 9 18 3-4 3-2 3-0
Utah 19-4 12 37 6-2 1-0 5-1
The Utes' road record compensates for its strength of schedule as compared to the Blue Devils. Both teams also have six top 50 wins.
 
School
Div. I
W-L
 
RPI
 
SOS
Road
W-L
vs.
1-25
vs.
26-50
Syracuse 18-4 14 18 3-3 3-1 3-2
Dayton 19-4 17 44 6-4 1-2 3-0
Dayton may have twice as many road wins, but all four of its losses have come on the road against Top 100 teams. Syracuse, meanwhile, is 2-2 away from home against Top 100 teams.
Schedule Strength
 
School
Div. I
W-L
 
RPI
 
SOS
Road
W-L
vs.
1-25
vs.
26-50
Kansas 18-5 11 13 6-1 2-2 1-2
BYU 18-6 16 17 6-2 0-2 2-3
BYU's schedule is maybe the RPI's biggest oddity. The Cougars have played just two teams inside the top 20, lost to both, and beaten just one top 30 team. The RPI may be a bit inflated by a 6-0 record against 51-100 foes.

If we believe the computers, BYU has played a better schedule than Pittsburgh and Maryland; the Cougars' games to date have been tougher overall; and if seeding the NCAA Tournament today, that BYU should be seeded higher than potential ACC and Big East champions.

Uh, not even BYU coach Steve Cleveland is buying that software data.

"Pittsburgh is arguably a better team, but I didn't come up with the numbers," Cleveland said. "Maryland is a better basketball team. I've tried to understand this, but I don't."

This is why the RPI and all the other numbers involved in the NCAA selection process are flawed. And while the RPI has aided the selection committee when it comes to determining deserving at-large teams, it's far from flawless. The RPI has holes, the biggest being where the games are played. A team's road record, while obviously factored into the committee's overall selection process, isn't part of the RPI's formula.

Also missing is the final question that should be asked regardless of RPI ... "Just how good is the team and is it tournament worthy?"

This is obviously a subjective question, one that forces the committee members to use judgment as to whether a team can play at the highest level regardless of what conference they come from and compete for the national title. But, remember, the 34 at-large spots are by invitation only, and most party lists are subjective.

"I know Michigan State is really good after I saw them play (and lose to) Oklahoma when we played Oklahoma State," Cleveland said of the potential bubble-bound Spartans. "Michigan State is definitely NCAA worthy. They could have beaten Oklahoma that night with 16,000 Oklahoma fans."

But look deeper into the numbers and it can make some sense. But all the numbers still don't add up, at least in comparing the strength of schedules of BYU, Pittsburgh and Maryland.

BYU has played two top 25 teams outside its conference (No. 13 Oklahoma State, No. 43 Creighton). The Cougars played one more top 50 game outside the MWC, beating Arizona State (29) in Tempe, Ariz. Where the Cougars' schedule strength comes from is the lack of cupcakes. BYU has played only one team rated below 201.

Pittsburgh is arguably a better team (than us), but I didn't come up with the numbers. Maryland is a better basketball team. I've tried to understand this, but I don't.
Steve Cleveland,
BYU head coach

"I know we played people of note," Cleveland said. "We played at Oklahoma State (actually in Oklahoma City). We went to Arizona State. We went to Creighton, where no one is going. We played good mid-majors like Pepperdine, Santa Barbara and Utah State. Unless you go and play at Utah State or Weber State, you don't realize how good they are.

"The problem is that nobody will come here to play us. We had won 44 in a row (before Utah won in Provo this season). We've already had two or three games canceled for next season. We can't get home-and-home games. The only place we can play these teams is on a neutral floor. If we had played Oklahoma State here we might have won the game. But where the game is played isn't factored in."

Maryland's elite non-conference games were better than Pittsburgh's or BYU's ... not to mention Duke's. The Terps played Notre Dame (No. 4) and Indiana (No. 34) on neutral courts. Maryland hosted Florida No. 7. But the problem for the Terps was they played five games against teams from 201 and below on the RPI.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, played just one top 25 non-conference game against Georgia (No. 7). The other "name" school was Ohio State, but the Buckeyes are 61st on the RPI and the computer doesn't look at anything but that number. The Panthers also played six games against teams ranked 201st and below.

So, how does BYU's schedule compare to Duke, which has a strength of schedule ranked one spot behind BYU, but is rated higher overall at No. 9? Well, believe it or not, the Blue Devils also played just one top 25 non-conference game against Dayton (No. 20). Duke entered the week with one top 50 non-conference win (44), but the win over Michigan will be another when next week's RPI rankings are released. As for games against UCLA (190) and Georgetown (134)? Well, those don't help because of their respectively poor seasons. Duke has played two games against teams rated below 201.

Cleveland won't dispute Maryland's elite games are better than those played by the Cougars. Pittsburgh's lost at Georgia is also a better loss than any BYU has suffered. But Cleveland isn't alone in his confusion, and to make matters worse, he coaches a school that is hoping to get into the tournament by using its high RPI.

Maryland's Gary Williams said this week he doesn't get it. How is Maryland's strength of schedule lower than Duke? Look at the teams' "elite" games and it's tough to understand, considering the Terps have played Notre Dame, Indiana and Florida, while the Blue Devils' best three games outside the ACC are against Dayton, Michigan and Butler.

But Maryland doesn't have to rely on the strength of schedule or even the RPI to get a bid. Neither does Duke or Pittsburgh. BYU, for whatever reason, needs it more than any team in the RPI's top 25.

But Cleveland won't use the RPI as a crutch, nor will he feel good about the Cougars' chances because of a high RPI. He got his reality check two seasons ago when the Cougars had 23 wins and MWC commissioner Craig Thompson told him he had to win the conference tournament to get a bid. BYU was about to play New Mexico for the tourney championship. The Cougars beat the Lobos. Cleveland was stunned his team had to feel that kind of pressure. But Thompson was right. BYU earned the automatic bid and a seed usually reserved for the final at-large teams, or lower conference champions (No. 12).

The problem with even looking at the RPI at this stage in the season, even late February, is that it is constantly changing. The RPI, which is updated daily on some websites, really should be judged as a finished product, which is what the selection committee is able to view it as in Indianapolis. Teams fluctuate throughout the season and a win over Michigan in December when the Wolverines were 0-6 was clearly easier than today against the Big Ten's leaders.

But the constant criticism from coaches outside of the major conferences is that they don't have a chance to raise their RPI in conference play like the big boys. The Mountain West isn't going to give a BYU a push outside of playing Utah (12). That's not the case in the ACC or Big East, where teams can consistently get power rating points and move up in the RPI even by playing average basketball in the conference.

This is where the major conferences have a decided advantage that the committee won't address.

"I just hope we're not becoming the BCS in college basketball," Cleveland said. "I'm not saying we're better than those teams because I know we're not. But if we played them on a regular basis and they came to our gym, we would beat some of them. There will be a year when we have an RPI of 40 or 50 and will be more of an issue."

One more thing to watch is how BYU is seeded come March 16. Yes, the high RPI will essentially help BYU in the selection process, but see how it translates in the seeding process. Maryland and Pittsburgh may not win their respective conference titles, but still have shots at top three seeds with RPI outside of the top 25. BYU would be happy with No. 6 seed.

Yes, we can consider BYU a lock to be in the NCAAs because of the Cougars' high RPI. But no way are they more of a cinch to be in the Dance than Maryland or Pittsburgh. Welcome to the imperfect science of relying on a computer.

Just get used to the RPI references from this point forward. And remember the big question: Are the numbers valid?

What we're hearing ...
At UCLA ... If Cedric Bozeman's shoulder injury prevents him from playing against Stanford on Saturday after sitting out Thursday's victory over California, he might shut it down for the season.

At Tennessee State ... The school is looking at a laundry list of head coaching candidates, such as UCLA administrative assistant Gary Stewart, Scott Edgar (former Division I head coach at Murray State), Wayne Brent (Ole Miss assistant), Tony Collins (Austin Peay assistant), Joe Harge (Arkansas-Little Rock assistant) and Coleman Crawford (SMU assistant).

In the America East ... The league could lose its automatic berth to the NCAAs if Northeastern leaves for the Colonial Athletic Association within three years. The Huskies are mulling a move -- if formally invited. The problem for the America East is that it would fail to meet the criteria of having six continuous members for five seasons. The America East is re-recruiting Northeastern to show why it's best the Huskies stay in their league rather than bolt on brethren like Boston University for a league to the South. The America East might not recover from a recruiting hit if it loses its automatic berth. The league's presidents are expected to meet on the issue this weekend.

At North Carolina ... Freshman Sean May has another doctor's appointment Friday to see if he can play. He won't play in games until he practices. He is in week eight of an 8-10 week recovery from the broken foot. But the latest news means he might not return until Wake Forest (March 5) or Duke (March 9) or the ACC tournament.

At North Carolina A&T ... This squad is five games away from going winless, and would be only the second team since 1955 to go through a season without a win. The other was Prairie View A&M in 1992. To add even more fodder for misery, A&T's leading scorer -- Tyrone Green -- broke his hand in frustration when he punched something in the locker room at halftime of last Saturday's loss at Delaware State.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. His Weekly Word on college basketball is updated Fridays throughout the year.







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