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Friday, February 14
Updated: February 18, 10:40 AM ET
 
When Tide shifts, teams can go from ranked to rank

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

Alabama may have belonged in the top 25. But not this high. Not this season. Not with, or without, Kennedy Winston.

But, the Tide couldn't control the beauty contest that is the weekly polls. So, back on Dec. 30, Mark Gottfried's troops went into Utah ranked No. 3 in the USA Today/ESPN coaches poll ... No.1 in the Associated Press poll.

Maurice Williams
In order to salvage an NCAA bid, Mo Williams and the Tide must win on the road.

And as quickly as the Tide rose, the descent began that night in Salt Lake City. Alabama lost to Utah hours after earning its No. 1 ranking and has lost six of eight games (13-7, 3-6 in the SEC West) to fall out of the top 25 all together. And if Gottfried can't stop Bama's current freefall, the Tide could certainly become a college basketball historical footnote by March 16:

That's right, a former No. 1 team who doesn't reach the NCAA Tournament.

And there are others, too. Teams who may not have reached No. 1, but found their way into the top 25 at some point this season, only to see their NCAA status a bit more shaky a month before Selection Sunday.

Don't be surprised if teams that were once ranked -- LSU, Michigan State, N.C. State, North Carolina, Minnesota, Tulsa, UCLA, Western Kentucky, Indiana, Oregon, Texas Tech and Virginia -- aren't invited to the dance. It could happen to more than a few, proving once again that cracking the top 25 will get your highlights on SportsCenter and create a buzz on campus, but that's about it.

"How could we be ranked No. 1 in the country?" Gottfried asks now. "When I saw that we were out of there I was glad. I wanted us out. We've got to earn it now, bottom line."

Back when Gottfried was touting Winston as potentially the best talent on the team, Alabama seemed poised to build on its early success. Winston, who was ineligible for the first 12 games, didn't play against Utah. But he didn't play the next game, either, when Bama beat Xavier to improve to 10-1. No, Winston came back just in time for the Tide's tailspin, which also happened to be the start of the SEC schedule.

The availability of Winston, who has averaged eight points in just over 18 minutes a game, hasn't mattered as much as the Tide's inability to win on the road -- again. The loss in Utah happened to be Alabama's first true road game after neutal-site wins over Oklahoma to open the season (Coaches vs. Cancer Classic) and a victory over Ohio State in Springfield, Mass. Since then, the Tide is 0-5 away from home in the SEC.

But Gottfried's been down this road before and hasn't given up hope on turing the Tide one more time before March. As he see things, the problem is simply a matter of scoring. Alabama can't score. And, as the losses piled up, point guard Mo Williams and forward Erwin Dudley lost so much confidence in their teammates that they started taking shots that they shouldn't have in that situation.

Winston has yet to get on track, shooting a woeful 15 percent on 3s. Senior Kenny Walker has disappeared and the Tide isn't getting the same kind of pep out of Antoine Pettway like they did last season.

"But we're going to turn it around," Gottfried said. "I can see it. We'll find a way."

The Tide better, and fast, beginning with Saturday's game against West Division leader Auburn. Alabama still has to go to Tennessee, Mississippi State and LSU, and gets Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina at home.

Getting to .500 in the SEC should get the Tide into the Dance. The question is can they get there.

Whether it was the case or not with Alabama, getting ranked can have an adverse effect on a team. Expectations end up being too high for a team.

That, however, might not be the case for Minnesota. The Gophers (14-7, 6-4 Big Ten) still have plenty of work to do since beating Georgia and Georgia Tech in early December to reach No. 17.

Mark Gottfried
How could we be ranked No. 1 in the country? When I saw that we were out of there I was glad. I wanted us out. We've got to earn it now, bottom line.
Mark Gottfried,
Alabama head coach

"For our program, it was important to be recognized that we were back on track and that Minnesota basketball was going in the right direction," Minnesota coach Dan Monson said. "But it showed we were back in the mix. But when you're wrong (the media) then you're suddenly soft and the coach isn't doing a good job.

"The media likes to build you up and then rip you down. It's never their fault and that's what's wrong with the polls."

Monson said his Gophers have always had a realistic locker room. They were excited to be ranked, but weren't too jacked about the position in the polls after two games, or devestated when they fell out five games later on Dec. 16. The Gophers likely won't get back into the top 25, but have to get busy on the road to ensure they don't got left out of the NCAA Tournament.

The Gophers finish with four of six on the road, including games at fellow NCAA hopefuls Michigan State, Indiana and Illinois.

"You can't dispute our quality wins like Georgia Tech, Georgia, Purdue, Michigan State and Iowa. But we have to finish ahead of Michigan State and Indiana in the standings," Monson said. "But we've got to win on the road."

Tulsa simply has to win at home -- in the WAC tournament -- to get into the Dance.

The Golden Hurricane has lost its chance to get an at-large bid. Tulsa, which was picked by many to make a major breakthrough in this year's NCAA Tournament, was ranked as high as No. 18 when it hosted, and lost to, Kansas on Dec. 11. Since the loss, Tulsa has lost six WAC games. That's right, six WAC games. Tulsa also dumped senior guard Antonio Reed, one of its best players.

"Five of the losses in the conference came down to the last possession, but we haven't played well," Tulsa coach John Phillips said. "My hope is that we will start playing well. In this case, we wanted to be recognized and wanted to be good enough to be in the polls."

But the ranking put high expectations on the Hurricane. Expectations, ultimately, it couldn't live up to this season.

But, as we are discovering as the season progresses, Tulsa is far from alone. Two of the most disapointing teams are UCLA and Georgetown.

The Bruins were overrated, ranked No. 12 in the preseason. But they shouldn't have been this bad. If the Bruins (5-15, 2-9) don't qualify for the Pac-10 tournament, UCLA would not only be among this year's most disappointing teams, but rank among the biggest in years.

10 For The Title
On the other end of the NCAA Tournament spectrum, here are teams who were picked to compete for the title and have lived up to expectations. Plus, a few who've entered the fray unexpectedly.

ESPN.com's top 10 title contenders:

Drew Nicholas
Drew Nicholas and the Terps could still make their way to New Orleans ...
At Number 10: Maryland gets into our national title chase because of the experience of having been there and done that. The Terps return four key starters from the team that won last year's national championship. Forget about a few hiccups in the ACC, the Terps have the intangibles to make the NCAA run. But the Terps need to tighten their perimeter 'D' for the repeat.

At Number 9: Louisville could make the remarkable run from being unranked in the preseason to the Final Four because of the Cards' conditioning. Louisville wears teams down in the second half with its pressure defense and its penchant for points off turnovers. And don't forget Rick Pitino has been here before and done just fine.

At Number 8: Pittsburgh doesn't have a superstar and lacks a top 20 scorer or rebounder in the Big East. But it won't matter in March because of the Panthers' tough defense, experience at the point and physical play. The Panthers won't get bullied in the tourney and they're driven to get past the Sweet 16.

At Number 7: Notre Dame has proven it can beat the top competition --taking down Pittsburgh, Texas and Maryland. The offense is prolific enough to carry the Irish to New Orleans and leave the Big Easy with the title. Matt Carroll and Chris Thomas can fire in enough 3s to compliment Torin Francis inside, keeping the Irish in any game.

At Number 6: Billy Donovan has a glaring weakness in the post, but he's got the balance of vets with Matt Bonner, Brett Nelson and Justin Hamilton, with rookies Anthony Roberson, Matt Walsh and Christian Drejer to make a deep run. If the Gators can get out, run and make 3s, then they've got a shot to go the distance.

At Number 5: Oklahoma's toughness could carry the Sooners back to the Final Four, and this time, earn them a national title. Hollis Price is every bit as much a winner as any player in the country. Sure, the Sooners are suspect inside and haven't been able to win big-time road games, yet. But they're tournament-tested and driven to get back and finish what they started last season.

At Number 4: Kansas is still waiting for Wayne Simien to return from a shoulder injury, and when he does, the Jayhawks will have everyone in place for a run. Depth has been an issue this season, but it won't be once Kansas gets its top eight intact. The combination of seniors Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich should carry this team back to the Final Four and possibly deliver a title to Roy Williams.

Jason Gardner
... but Jason Gardner and his 'Cats remain the favorite to win it all in New Orleans.
At Number 3: Texas has the best point guard in the country, if not the player of the year in T.J. Ford. He's certainly the most valuable player to a team this season. Ford can control the outcome of a game more than any other player, but he's not alone. He's got the shooters on the wing in Brian Boddicker and Brandon Mouton, not to mention two potential finishers in Jason Klotz and James Thomas.

At Number 2: Kentucky's defense is suffocating enough to get the Wildcats to New Orleans and earn Tubby Smith his second national title. The 'Cats don't have one superstar, but are playing selfless basketball. The leadership of Keith Bogans on the perimeter and Marquis Estill inside could carry this team to the title. The knock on the 'Cats could be their halfcourt offense, which has the potential to go cold if the 3s don't fall.

At Number 1: Arizona remains the favorite for the title because of its depth and talent at each position. Luke Walton, Jason Garden and Ricky Anderson were all part of a national runner-up team two seasons ago. The freshmen -- Hassan Adams and Andre Iguodala -- can change the game with their above-the-rim play. And Lute Olson is driven to finish this season on top after missing the brass ring in 2001.

POY ... Still too close to call
With a month left in the regular season, the race for player of the year remains wide open. Here are the 10 who've put themselves in position.

T.J. Ford, Texas: Ford controls the game like no other. He's not a great shooter, but he is the reason the Longhorns have been a top-10 team all season. If you ask any coach who they'd want guiding their team at point into the NCAA Tournament; most would take Ford.

David West, Xavier: The 47-point effort against Dayton lifted West into this group. Oh, and don't forget about the Musketeers, just yet, when it comes to team who could get to the Final Four. West is leading the Musketeers back into contention for a run deep in the tournament.

Reece Gaines, Louisville: Gaines has been the architect of Louisville's remarkable turnaround. He's also done a nice job changing positions to the point. Gaines' defense has improved to the point where he's the point man in Rick Pitino's defense.

Ron Slay, Tennessee: He's the most prolific scorer in the SEC and has almost single-handedly put the Vols into NCAA Tournament contention. Slay bumped out Georgia's Jarvis Hayes and Auburn's Marquis Daniels from this group.

Dwyane Wade, Marquette: He's Mr. Everything for Marquette and the reason the Eagles are in contention in Conference USA, not to mention a Final Four berth. Wade and Gaines should have a heck of a race for the C-USA honor, let alone national honors.

Kyle Korver, Creighton: Korver is one of the top shooters in the country and it's hard to ignore the Bluejays record (22-2 through Thursday) and wins over Notre Dame and BYU. He might not play in a high-major conference, but he's got big-time skills.

Hollis Price, Oklahoma: Price struggled at times this season, but has turned it on during the Big 12 and been a money player for the Sooners. Few players make bigger shots in the final seconds than Price.

Josh Howard, Wake Forest: Howard is a lock to be ACC player of the year and with that award comes a chance to be national player of the year. Howard has kept the Demon Deacons in most games (save the Duke game when he fouled out Thursday). He has carried the Demon Deacons this far, and could take them deep into March.

Teams To Watch
Top Five Surprises
PURDUE: The Boilermakers weren't supposed to be leading, let alone contending for the Big Ten title. Tremendous turnaround by Gene Keady.
AUBURN: The Tigers aren't in the Dance just yet but they're close and no one, I mean, no one thought that would occur.
WEST VIRGINIA: OK, the Mountainers aren't going to the tournament but they were supposed to be downright awful this season. Instead, John Bielein coached the Mountaineers to wins over Florida and Tennessee.
SAINT JOSEPH'S: The Hawks were supposed to be an A-10 title team - last season, not this season. But Saint Joe's defense has been sensational all year.
DAYTON: The Flyers were considered a potential NCAA team a year ago but have come back strong and are a real threat, to not only get to the Dance but do some damage.
Top Five Turnarounds
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: The Huskies started the season 4-8. They're 13-9 through Thursday. The Huskies were 9-3 atop the West Division - a tremendous turnaround by Rob Judson.
MICHIGAN: The Wolverines started the season 0-6 and then ripped off 13 straight wins. Tommy Amaker has handled this team as well as anyone could under a self-imposed postseason ban.
SETON HALL: The Pirates looked like they were headed nowhere fast at 5-7 and winless in the Big East. But Seton Hall has won six of its last eight games (five of six in the Big East) to make itself a factor in the West Division.
VIRGINIA: The Cavs weathered a dismissal of Keith Jenifer, brutal losses to Virginia Tech to Georgia Tech to win at Maryland. The Cavs aren't safe yet but they did save their season.
STANFORD: The Cardinal looked like they were toast after losing to Montana and Richmond at home in December. But Stanford turned around and became a contender in the Pac-10 with a sweep of the Arizona schools on the road.
Conference Sleepers
NORTH CAROLINA: If Sean May comes back and is effective then the Tar Heels could easily get hot to win the ACC tournament.
BOSTON COLLEGE: The Eagles have a big three (Troy Bell, Ryan Sidney and Craig Smith) that could be tough to stop for three or four days in New York.
INDIANA: If the Hoosiers can re-create their early season chemistry and they start hitting 3s then they could easily win the Big Ten tourney.
MICHIGAN STATE: The Spartans still have the talent, the toughness and the moxie to get hot for three days in Chicago.
OREGON: The Ducks aren't as tough as they were a year ago but the Lukes (Ridnour and Jackson) are talented enough to carry this team to a Pac-10 tourney win.

Brian Cook, Illinois: Cook is the favorite for Big Ten player of the year and has really become a leader for the Illini this season. The Illini have a shot to make a serious run because of his leadership and inside-out scoring.

Nick Collison, Kansas: Collison edges out his teammate Kirk Hinrich because of his overall scoring and rebounding. His effort against Texas elevated him into the top 10 and made him a serious contender for player of the year, even if he doesn't beat out Ford or Price for player of the year in the Big 12.

Xs & Os
As for the coach of the year race, here's our top five.

Rick Pitino, Louisville: Like the Oscars, if Louisville is in the national championship race, then it's director (or coach) has to be on this list.

Tubby Smith, Kentucky: The turnaround from OK team, to sensational, especially the emphasis on defense, was one of his best moves of his career.

Skip Prosser, Wake Forest: No one had this team pegged to be ACC champs. But after the win over Duke, the Demon Deacons are the team to beat.

Mike Montgomery, Stanford: He gets no love nationally, but he's challenging Arizona for the Pac-10. And Stanford has no business doing it with all those makeshift lineups.

Mike Brey, Notre Dame: The Irish burst onto the scene with the wins over Texas and Maryland and haven't left the stage. They could make a run to New Orleans.

Fresh Faces
So many freshmen have made headlines this season, but these five have sustained their excellence.

Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse: He's leading the Orangemen with 21.5 points and 9.6 rebounds a game and has been the difference in Syracuse being a tourney team.

Craig Smith, Boston College: Even though the numbers are a bit lower, Smith has been even more consistent then Anthony with 20.6 points and 8.1 boards. He could share the Big East honors, even if Anthony gets all the national love. More importantly, Smith has kept the Eagles clinging to hope for an NCAA bid.

Ike Diogu, Arizona State: He's the best big man on the West Coast, maybe second in the country to Smith at this rate, with 18.1 points and 7.2 boards a game. Diogu is the reason the Sun Devils should make the Dance.

Chris Bosh, Georgia Tech: Bosh has emerged as the best freshman in the ACC. He's leading the Yellow Jackets to the brink of a bid with 15.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and two blocks a game.

Antione Wright, Texas A&M: The Aggies are hanging around any bubble discussion because of Wright's presence. He's put up 16.1 points and 7.3 rebounds a game and been a difference-maker in the Big 12.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. His Weekly Word on college basketball is updated Fridays throughout the year.











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