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Friday, January 3
Updated: January 6, 6:32 PM ET
 
Getting in the 'know' as conference plays heats up

By Andy Katz
ESPN.com

Here's what we know as the conference season begins in earnest:

  • Parity rules the nation.
  • Freshmen are still the talk.
  • The race for the Wooden Award is wide open.
  • Picking the Final Four means choosing between as many as 16 teams at this point.
  • A number of conference races, and ultimately NCAA bids, could be determined by some additions once players get healthy.
  • The homecourt doesn't mean as much right now (Toledo over Michigan State on one extreme; Arizona over Oregon on the other).

    Here's what we don't know:

  • Can Steve Lavin pull off another magic act and get UCLA back in contention for an NCAA bid?
  • Will officials remain consistent in trying to clean up post play?
  • Will the freshmen hit the wall?
  • Can a mid-major crack the Final Four?
  • Will consensus preseason picks Arizona and Kansas end up in the Final Four?

    Here's our take on the conferences that entered the New Year's with a buzz:

    Jameer Nelson
    Saint Joseph point guard Jameer Nelson and defense could equal an NCAA Tournament bid after all.
    Atlantic 10
    What we know: Xavier is beatable if the Musketeers are defended on the perimeter. But the Musketeers still have the best inside/out combo in the league with Romain Sato and David West. Saint Joseph's is for real because Jameer Nelson is having a player of the year-type season and the Hawks are playing the best defense in the league. Dayton will be tough to beat at home and could build a strong case for an at-large bid with a gaudy record.

    What we don't know: How much of an advantage will Dayton have hosting the conference tournament? Can the Flyers win on the road? Will Saint Bonaventure's frenetic style hold up over the course of the season? Is Richmond a realistic threat to finish second? What do we make of UMass after the Minutemen beat N.C. State? Will Temple ever get a consistent streak going to make a run?

    ACC
    What we know: Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia and Maryland are looking like sure bets for the NCAA Tournament. The Cavs seemed to have solved their perimeter problems. Duke hasn't been tested, but still is getting enough balance. Wake Forest has a significant win at Wisconsin. Maryland opened the ACC with a convincing victory over Georgia Tech. North Carolina is still on the fence after a strong start, and was stunted with losses to Illinois and Kentucky and then the injury to Sean May for two months.

    What we don't know: Does Georgia Tech's recent slide indicate the Yellow Jackets can't score well enough to get a bid? Should we take Clemson seriously after its 9-0 start? Does N.C. State have too many "clones"? What happened to Florida State's defense after getting routed by Boston University? How much of an affect will May have on the Tar Heels if he returns by late February, early March? Will Majestic Mapp return at the point and be a difference maker for Virginia? Will the freshmen hold up at Wake Forest, Duke, North Carolina, Maryland and Georgia Tech over the length of the season?

    Big East
    Chris Thomas
    Thomas
    What we know: Connecticut is the runaway favorite to win the Big East East Division. Pittsburgh has plenty of company for the West Division race, with Notre Dame, Syracuse and Georgetown all having a realistic shot to unseat the Panthers. The player of the year race will be a dead heat -- perhaps even on the Irish, alone -- with Chris Thomas and Matt Carroll competing with Pitt's Brandin Knight, Connecticut's Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, Syracuse's Carmelo Anthony and Georgetown's Michael Sweetney.

    What we don't know: Will Rutgers be a tough out at the RAC once again and cost one of the favorites the title? Will Boston College hit a consistent stride and reach their potential, or will the Eagles tank it? Can Providence be a realistic contender after crushing the Eagles? What do we make of West Virginia? Can the Mountaineers really be a top tier West Division team? Is St. John's going to play up to its potential? Will Miami's new homecourt make the Hurricane tougher to beat at home? Is Seton Hall the dog team in the West? Will Virginia Tech be a given for East Division teams? Will Georgetown find consistent shooters to stay in the race? How will Connecticut handle the tough road stops like at Pitt? How will Pitt handle being the targeted team? How much of an affect will having point guard Billy Edelin have on the Orangemen when he's eligible? What if the Irish don't shoot well?

    Big Ten
    Dee Brown
    Dee Brown
    What we know: Illinois is in the race to stay because of freshman guard Dee Brown and senior forward Brian Cook. Indiana is still the favorite because of freshman guard Bracey Wright and the best winner in the league in Tom Coverdale. Michigan State can still be the best rebounding and defensive team if the Spartans remain focused. Wisconsin could still be a Big Ten title team because of the leadership of Kirk Penney. Minnesota will be extremely unpredictable, especially on the road.

    What we don't know: Can Iowa continue its strong start into the Big Ten? What happens when Ohio State is completely healthy? Will Purdue be a tough out at home and make a late postseason run? Should Michigan be taken seriously as a trouble spot after winning six straight games? Will Penn State win a road game? Can Northwestern score enough to win on the road? Are we finally done talking about Mike Davis' outburst against Kentucky?

    Big 12
    What we know: Kansas is still the class of this league. Texas Tech is here to stay this season and should return to the NCAA Tournament. Texas point guard T.J. Ford will keep the Longhorns in the race for the title.

    What we don't know: Can Oklahoma score well enough in the post to be a contender again? Will Missouri's guards shoot well enough to keep the Tigers in the top four? Should Oklahoma State be taken seriously as a top-four team within the conference without a proven star? What do we make of Texas A&M after the Aggies beat LSU and Tennessee but lost to Texas-San Antonio? Could Colorado be a factor in the race after a sudden surge late with a win at Charlotte? Can Iowa State, Baylor, Nebraska and Kansas State be trouble for one of the elite teams? Is there an easy conference game?

    Conference USA
    What we know: Louisville is the real deal. The Cardinals are a legitimate Conference USA contender. Rick Pitino has the Cardinals in position to make a run toward the Sweet 16 with offensive balance and defensive pressure. Cincinnati will struggle to score, but it's still the team everyone wants to beat. Marquette is the toughest to figure, especially away from Milwaukee. Memphis is only going to get better once Chris Massie adjusts to the daily regimen.

    What we don't know: Can Memphis finally crack through and become a tournament team? Will DePaul be as consistent in Conference USA play and make a late charge for a bid? Will this league get three-to-four bids, or could it get reduced to two if either Cincinnati, Memphis, Marquette or Louisville collapse? Can TCU, South Florida, UAB, East Carolina, Saint Louis and Charlotte be trouble and cause unrest for the NCAA favorites? Is this emerging as one of the most competitive conferences at the top with Louisville, Marquette and Cincinnati battling for one division crown? Can Louisville's Reece Gaines or Marquette's Dwayne Wade be national player of the year finalists? Will Cincinnati's Tony Bobbitt be a consistent scoring threat?

    SEC
    Ron Slay
    Slay
    What we know: The SEC could make a strong case at this point for six NCAA Tournament teams -- Alabama, Mississippi State, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky and LSU. The SEC probably has as many, if not more Final Four contenders, than the Big 12, Big East and Big Ten. The games between Alabama and Mississippi State will be two of the best conference rivalry home-and-home series of the season. The Bulldogs' defense is the best in the nation, or at least the toughest. All six teams are capable of beating anyone in the country on a given night. They are all that talented, but also as unpredictable.

    What we don't know: Will Kennedy Winston get eligible for Alabama, and if he does, how much of an affect will he have? Will Christian Drejer be healthy to play for Florida? If so, how much? Can Kentucky work in Antwain Barbour enough to keep everyone happy? Will the Wildcats handle losses well with the pressure of producing for the Kentucky faithful? Can Georgia's thin inside hold up in the rugged SEC? Did Ole Miss play a soft schedule or should the Rebels be a threat, too? Will Ron Slay lead the SEC in scoring and take Tennessee to the postseason? Will South Carolina get strong enough guard play to be a factor? Should we discount Auburn just yet? Vanderbilt can shoot but can the Commodores defend well enough to stay in the hunt for an NCAA bid? Will LSU keep up its good fortune after beating Arizona?

    Pac-10
    Ike Diogu
    Diogu
    What we know: Arizona is the team to beat in the Pac-10 and may not lose a game in the league. Oregon can't rebound well and is extremely vulnerable. Stanford's season will rest on the play at the point. Arizona State freshman Ike Diogu is the best in his class in the league, as well as the top post player in the Pac-10. The Sun Devils look like they could challenge for second place.

    What we don't know: Will UCLA ever click enough to be dominant at home? How dangerous is USC once the Trojans get a complete team? Will Luke Walton be effective throughout the Pac-10? Can Cal find a fourth option and get consistent point guard play? Will Washington, Washington State and Oregon State battle out for the last spot in the Pac-10 tournament? Will there be any coaching changes before the Pac-10 tourney?

    A few other conferences to watch:

    MWC:
    What we know: Utah is reemerging as a potential favorite and is defending as well as the Utes were two years ago. Wyoming is still a threat to win the title, even without Marcus Bailey. BYU could end up being the most balanced team in the league. The Utah-BYU rivalry is back to the good ol' days. San Diego State and UNLV are contenders because of their athleticism on the perimeter.

    What we don't know: Will Australian center Andrew Bogut get eligible for Utah? How much of an impact will Evan Burns have at San Diego State as he gets more comfortable? Can this league get multiple bids again, as many as three?

    WAC
    What we know: Tulsa is beatable, as evident by Fresno State's win Wednesday night. Hawaii is still nearly unbeatable at home. Fresno State first-year coach Ray Lopes is the front-runner for coach of the year with the Bulldogs' turnaround in the WAC. Rice can't be taken lightly and could finish as high as third.

    What we don't know: Can Tulsa can win big games on the road? Can SMU make itself a factor with two of the best young guards in the league? Will Nevada and Louisiana Tech get back to being potential top-four teams like they were predicted? Will Hawaii get to a third straight NCAA Tournament? Can the WAC earn multiple bids yet again?

    America East
    What we know: Boston University is clearly the most talented and could be trouble in March. The Terriers scared Stanford and Arizona, but more importantly, beat Florida State and Ohio University. The Terriers run their sets with precision and don't seem to get rattled.

    What we don't know: Is Vermont still trouble for BU without T.J. Sorrentine?

    Sun Belt
    What we know: Western Kentucky misses Todor Pandov more than Chris Marcus. Arkansas-Little Rock can score after putting up over 100 points against Pepperdine. Little Rock is a legit contender, but so too, are New Mexico State and Louisiana-Lafayette. But the reality is this league will probably only get one bid. What we don't know: Will Marcus play hoops this season? Does he even want to play?

    Big West
    What we know: Utah State is once again the class of the Big West. The Aggies win over Utah was the latest example of their toughness at home. But Utah State won't get another chance for a big-time win to push the Aggies higher in the RPI. The at-large berth they covet if they can't win the Big West tournament might not come again.

    What we don't know: Is Santa Barbara a realistic threat to win the title? What about UC Irvine, the best team in this league not to win the conference tournament? And, should Pacific's win over Saint Joseph's mean the Tigers are a threat?

    Southern
    What we know: The College of Charleston has three wins in the Great Alaska Shootout (Wyoming, Oklahoma State and Villanova) that will be bankable for the whole season. Davidson will never be an easy win. Appalachian State is a legit contender for the title with non-conference wins over Charlotte and SMU.

    What we don't know: Are the Cougars this season's Ball State? Will they lose too many games in the Southern to be considered an at-large candidate? Can Charleston take advantage of playing the tournament in its own city, albeit not on its homecourt.

    Missouri Valley
    Kyle Korver
    Korver
    What we know: Creighton is a legitimate Final Four contender. The Bluejays' Kyle Korver should wrap up Missouri Valley Conference player of the year honors.

    What we don't know: Does Southern Illinois have a run in it to upset Creighton and make a case for a bid? Are there any other true contenders like Drake, Northern Iowa or Wichita State? Will the league get two bids by upsetting Creighton in the tournament?

    West Coast
    What we know: Gonzaga is still the class of the league. Ronny Turiaf is the Zags most talented player, but not its toughest. The Bulldogs are stronger than they've been in the post but still are suspect defensively. They need to clean up in the WCC to ensure a bid and a decent seed.

    What we don't know: Can Pepperdine handle Gonzaga's bigs and challenge for the title? Was San Diego's win at UCLA a sign that it can win the tournament on its homecourt? Was San Francisco's win over BYU a fluke, or can the Dons be trouble for the Zags? Can Santa Clara's makeshift lineup hold up over the course of the WCC season?

    Big Sky
    What we know: This will be as tightly contested a race as we've seen. Eastern Washington, Weber State, Northern Arizona, Montana State and Montana have all played "up" and won games on the road or on a neutral court. What we don't know: Were the non-conference wins over Washington, Stanford and UCLA enough to get the Big Sky champ a seed as high as 13 or 14 in March?

    Ivy What we know: Penn, Princeton, Yale and Harvard have all had flashes of looking like a contender for the title. Penn is the most talented, but must shoot better in conference play to win consistently. Princeton is gaining confidence with each week after nearly beating Texas and defeating Texas A&M. Yale doesn't fear Penn or Princeton anymore. Harvard got off to a 7-2 start before slowing a bit but has a renewed sense of purpose this season.

    What we don't know: Can Penn senior Ugonna Onykwe lead the Quakers to the title by being a dominant player of the year favorite? Can Princeton get Spencer Gloger enough shots to lean heavily on their best player? Will Yale and Harvard avoid stumbling to the bottom teams so they can stay in the race? Will there be another playoff like last season?

    Horizon What we know: Butler might be as good as last season and Darnell Archey doesn't look like he's going to miss at the free-throw line (32 of 32). Wisconsin-Milwaukee is just as legitimate a threat to win the Horizon league. But neither team has enough marquee wins to make a strong enough case to get in as an at-large team just yet.

    What we don't know: Will the Horizon League's tournament tweaking to protect the top teams mean the best team will get to the NCAAs?

    Weekly Chatter

  • Arizona State's maturity is showing and the Sun Devils have a legitimate chance for a top-three finish in the Pac-10. The Sun Devils' vets have accepted their roles, notably senior Donnell Knight. He's decided it's OK to be a board and defensive man instead of trying to score. The Sun Devils' vets have recognized that they've got a chance to win by funnelling the offense through hard-nosed freshman forward Ike Diogu. The egos are no more. Rob Evans' staff finally feels it has the chemistry and the talent it needed to make an NCAA Tournament run. The Sun Devils carry a confidence that they lacked last season. It was clearly evident during their attention to detail during Thursday's pregame meal/game breakdown at a Eugene, Ore., hotel in preparation for that night's eventual win at Oregon State. The Sun Devils recognize the importance of winning the games they're supposed to against the bottom feeder teams on the road in the Pac-10.

  • Gonzaga and Saint Joseph's played back-to-back, one-possession deciding games in consecutive seasons on New Year's Eve. Gonzaga won at Hawk Hill in 2001. The Hawks won in overtime in the Kennell to close 2002. Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli and Gonzaga coach Mark Few say they would love to continue what is becoming a bi-coastal rivalry between the two Jesuit schools. "I'll play it every year at New Year's if Mark wants to," Martelli said. "Both teams got a standing ovation at the end of the game. No one saw it nationally but it was a great game." Few said, "We'd love to if we can work it out." A home-and-home series like this one doesn't need to be on television for two schools to continue playing. The game is a plus for each school's RPI and exposes the team to a part of the country that they don't always receive coverage.

  • How down are NBA scouts on college/American talent? Scouts who are making the rounds at games say there are only three consensus American lottery picks. St. Vincent-St. Mary High School (Akron, Ohio) stud LeBron James, Syracuse freshman Carmelo Anthony and Kansas senior guard Kirk Hinrich. Obviously other American players and a few foreigners will fill out the lottery. But two months into the season there are only three consensus picks who play in the States. Yikes.

  • Pepperdine lost to BYU Thursday night. Had the Waves been at full strength they might have entered the Marriott Center in the top 20. At least that's Paul Westphal's take. But the team Westphal envisioned at the beginning of the season will never play together this season. Forward Glen McGowan is out for the year after needing surgery on his shoulder. Center Will Kimble is done for his career because of a heart condition. Point guard Devin Montgomery is due back next week from a fractured thumb. That means the Waves are leaning more on freshmen forward David Patten and guard Alex Acker than imagined. "I really believed we were a top 25 team," Westphal said earlier in the week after winning the Lobo Invitational in Albuquerque, N.M. "We're not whining about it. But we do have a lot of interchangeable players. But there's no secret that we'll have trouble with big teams." And that's why the Waves probably won't beat out Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. Pepperdine has the team to be trouble in March, but the Waves didn't get the wins like last season (see: USC and UCLA on the road) to warrant an at-large berth.

  • Suspended Fullerton center Pape Sow didn't help his NBA chances after getting caught with a petty theft charge on campus. Sow put up 15 points and seven boards a game but the Titans were still 2-7 with him as their first option. Sow wasn't "wowing" the scouts, either, and this blemish won't endear him to the NBA.

  • Hawaii won back-to-back Rainbow Classic titles for the first time since 1971-72. The Rainbows beat Butler in the title game by coming back from a 21-point deficit. Hawaii must move this tournament to before Christmas if it wants a stronger field. Teams don't want to come to Hawaii and make a quick turnaround return for a league game. Hawaii had to do that, too, leaving Tuesday morning after the title game for the WAC opener at UTEP Thursday night.

    Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com. His Weekly Word on college basketball is updated Fridays throughout the year.













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