There is a chuckle in Mike Montgomery's response, and why not? A week ago, his Stanford basketball team was ranked No. 10, among the favorites to win a Pac-10 championship, and headed for another solid NCAA Tournament seed.

Today, Montgomery is being asked how his team might avoid missing the madness altogether. Some have gone as far as whispering those three dreaded letters when talking about a program with such prestige ... N-I-T.

	Fresh off being swept at home by USC and UCLA, Teyo Johnson and Cardinal head to Arizona this week.

Crazy stuff, this.

Or is it?

"You're making assumptions that we're fighting for (an NCAA at-large bid)," said Montgomery. "There are no guarantees with the NCAA Tournament, especially with as many good teams as our league has. We just have to continue being competitive. I don't have any idea whether or not (one more victory) is enough.

"Everything that we want to accomplish is still ahead of us, but we're going to have to really dig down and get better."

The likely scenario: Six teams from the Pac-10 -- Oregon, USC, Arizona, Cal, Stanford and UCLA -- are NCAA bound.

Another scenario: Say, for instance, Arizona State (playing its best ball of the season right now) wins the league tournament and automatic NCAA bid. A team such as Stanford might not want to tempt fate with a poor finish.

The league has never received six NCAA bids. Seven is a huge stretch.

The Cardinal (17-8 overall, 10-6 conference) is coming off consecutive home losses to USC and UCLA and finishes the regular season at Arizona on Thursday and at ASU on Saturday. It will then draw a difficult first-round opponent (who won't?) in the conference tournament next week.

It's unlikely a team as talented as Stanford (RPI of 38, schedule rating of 53) would end with five straight losses.

And yet -- considering the parity among Pac-10 teams -- not impossible.

"Stanford is a terrific team with some quality wins," said Cal coach Ben Braun. "This just happens to be a great conference. I don't see any of the (top six) teams being in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament because they lose a few here at the end."

	“	If that's the scenario -- four losses in a row (to end the regular season) -- we could say hello to the NIT. ”
		— Julius Barnes, Stanford junior guard

What the Cardinal has lost of late is confidence.

It showed against both the Trojans and Bruins last week, an uncertainty when and if to shoot. It also doesn't help that sophomore forward Justin Davis (bruised ribs) remains out, not allowing for a complete rotation up front and more rest for junior center Curtis Borchardt.

Montgomery is struggling with the option right now of going big and being exposed by quicker players who can step away from the basket. It's one of many questions Stanford must answer the next few weeks.

"We're in a great league," said Montgomery. "Arizona has won a national championship and been to the Final Four (since 1997) and neither time did it win our conference. Right now we're playing tough, top 20 teams who are taking away our strengths and that's not the best way to try and get your confidence back.

"Everything ultimately becomes my responsibility somehow or some way. That's why you're the coach. But we've talked about guys just having to go out and perform and play and not putting pressure on themselves. But no matter what happens, this is not life and death. The worst thing that could happen is that we play poorly and lose games."

Games of the Week

Oregon at USC Thursday It could all come down to this in the Pac-10, as the Trojans (19-7, 11-5) are one of three teams that trail the Ducks (20-7, 12-4) by a game with two remaining. But consider: USC ends on Saturday against eighth-place Oregon State; Oregon ends at UCLA; Arizona, also at 11-5, hosts Stanford and Cal this week; Cal, also at 11-5, get ASU and Arizona. A USC win against Oregon could very well leave the Trojans sitting alone on top come Sunday. Utah at Wyoming Saturday It's no surprise, but the parity-driven Mountain West Conference will likely be decided in this final regular-season game. Each team enters the week 9-3 in league. Wyoming beat Utah 54-46 in Salt Lake City on Feb. 4, and winning the regular-season title is far more critical to the Cowboys, whose RPI and strength-of-schedule rating aren't flattering in terms of at-large NCAA bids. Utah, meanwhile, appears on solid NCAA ground. Hawaii at Fresno State Saturday The Rainbows (23-4, 14-2) can clinch the regular-season title outright by winning at Nevada on Thursday and against the Bulldogs here. And yet this game is bigger for a Fresno State team that needs confidence entering the WAC tournament. Jerry Tarkanian's team enters the week a sure bet for the NIT if it can't find some magic in Tulsa next week. WCC Tournament Final Monday (ESPN) If seeds play out, co-champions Pepperdine and Gonzaga will play for the league's automatic bid into the NCAAs. The teams split regular-season meetings, each winning on their home court. A darkhorse? In a conference tournament, always look to the host school. University of San Diego opens as the No. 5 seed, but won three of their final four games at the Jenny Craig Pavilion.

Also sweating it out
When it comes handing out NCAA Tournament bids in the Mountain West, it's simple: Everyone is sweating except Utah.

There is a reason many refer to these eight teams as a "great NIT conference." Parity has again defined the league, but when one of two first-place teams (Wyoming) has an RPI of 77 and schedule rating of 146, it hurts all involved.

The conference will make things quite easy on the NCAA selection committee (and hard on itself) if the Utes win the league tournament in Las Vegas next week. Should that happen, Utah (RPI of 18, schedule rating of 29) could and likely should be the lone NCAA representative.

But if one of seven others (and it truly could be any of them) wins out in Vegas, that team and Utah will go.

"I'm hoping our league can somehow get two teams in the NCAA Tournament," said San Diego State coach Steve Fisher. "Now, whether or not that is realistic, I don't know. Utah obviously has a great name and the best chance.

"But I think the best-case scenario for the league is someone other than Utah winning the conference tournament. But I don't know. A lot of people are talking about us only getting one team in."

In the WAC, the likely outcome: Aloha to everyone except Hawaii (23-4 overall, 14-2 conference) and Tulsa (23-5, 14-3) come Selection Sunday.

There is an at-large case being made in some circles for Louisiana Tech (18-8, 12-4), still in contention for a share of the regular-season title. Tech, however, has an RPI of 60, meaning it must win the conference tournament to make the NCAAs.

But no one can dispute the strides Tech made in this, its first WAC season.

"What has come to light is that we can compete," said Tech coach Keith Richard. "What has also come to light is that there are no freebies in this league."

Preseason favorite Fresno State (17-12, 8-8) finds itself in a tie for fifth and in the same win-the-conference-tournament-or-go-to-the-NIT mode. The Bulldogs have won six of their past eight WAC games, but are still without point guard Chris Sandy (suspended) and wing Chris Jefferies (knee).

The Big West doesn't sweat much, because the facts are fairly clear. The winner of the conference tournament goes to the NCAAs. Period. Utah State (21-4, 13-3) and UC Irvine (20-8, 13-4) might try to offer a case for at-large consideration, but only the Aggies (RPI of 44) could get a look.

It might not be a long one with a schedule rating of 158.

Who's Hot
Marcus Banks: The UNLV junior point guard was off-the-charts special last week. He had 22 points, six rebounds and six assists in a victory against Colorado State, but it was his effort against San Diego State that really turned heads. Banks scored 34 of his career-high 36 points after halftime in an 83-76 overtime win. He made 11-of-14 shots and his step-back 3-pointer over Tony Bland with 4.2 seconds left in regulation tied the game at 68.

Ben Braun: The Cal coach has his team playing its best at the most critical time, sitting a game out of first in the Pac-10. The Bears, who have won six of their last seven, travel to Arizona State and Arizona this week in search of their first conference title since 1960. Cal, last ranked during the 1998-99 season, enters this week No. 21 and No. 25 in the polls.

Who's Not
Utah: For the first time in recent memory, the Utes are losing big leads in conference games and paying for it with losses. Two weeks ago, UNLV went on a 21-4 second-half run to beat the Utes. Then, on Saturday, Utah blew all of a 21-point lead in losing at BYU. A few problems: Utah can't go inside consistently enough and it appears tired, as if some players have hit a wall that didn't exist in past years.

Cal Poly: The Mutangs began the season so well, including a non-conference win against Oregon State. But they have dropped three straight Big West games to sit at 14-10 overall and 8-8 in league. It's still a solid year for a team picked to finish eighth, but coach Kevin Bromley's side needs to close with wins against bottom-dwellers UC Riverside and Cal State Fullerton before the conference tournament.

Quote to Note
"If that's the scenario -- four losses in a row (to end the regular season) -- we could say hello to the NIT."
-- Stanford junior guard Julius Barnes.

Thought for the Day
Didn't we hear New Mexico's season would implode by now amid all the off-court chaos? Juding by effort and results, someone forgot to tell the players.

Ed Graney of the San Diego Union-Tribune is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. He can be reached at ed.graney@uniontrib.com.