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Tuesday, March 11
Updated: March 13, 4:26 PM ET
 
No. 1s: Who's got 'em? Who can get 'em?

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

Every team, not to mention their fans, covets a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But what does it really mean to be a No. 1 seed?

Well, first off, there is the prestige and cachet of arriving at the Dance as one of the four best teams in the country. Then, there is the respect that comes with being a top seed, not to mention the best media coverage from Selection Sunday through a team's last game of the tournament.

Top seeds are put on the easiest road to the Final Four, at least in theory. The first game is against a No. 16 seed; the second-round foe is at worst an 8th seed; and once in the Sweet 16, the bracket is set up for top seeds to matchup with a No. 4 seed. There is no guarantees of reaching the Final Four, but the only teams virtually guaranteed to play in the second round are No. 1 seeds. No top seed has ever lost a first-round game to a No. 16 seed.

This year, two of the No. 1 seeds are set. It's been that way for a while now, with Arizona and Kentucky stringing together quality win after impressive victory during the regular season. There are outlines that six other teams can follow to earn the other to No. 1 seeds, but conference tournaments will seal the deal and determine who gets all the perks of being No. 1. (Oh, and did I mention, No. 1 seeds also get first dibs on the best hotels.)

The No.1s

Luke Walton and Jason Gardner
Luke Walton and Jason Gardner are two reasons Arizona is a favorite to win it all.
Arizona: The Wildcats were destined for a No. 1 seed in October and have not come close to playing their way out of that spot in the West Region. Lute Olson's team has won eight games against the RPI Top 50, and have lost only on the road to LSU (without Luke Walton) and at home to Stanford, which seems to be an annual event. The Wildcats won at Kansas, but have still has not played their best basketball. That is scary, and it cuts both ways. I believe Arizona will be in New Orleans, and there is a good chance that Arizona AD Jim Livengood will be handing the trophy to his coach in the Superdome.

Kentucky: The other mortal lock is another group of Wildcats, this one belonging to Tubby Smith. The 'Cats have been the most cohesive team in the country since its second-half awakening at Vanderbilt. Out of the Kentucky locker room in Nashville came a blue juggernaut, and the Wildcats have not looked back. To me, Kentucky's 16-0 record in the SEC is the most impressive regular season run I have seen since Kentucky ran the table in 1996. This Kentucky run is even more impressive to me than Pitino's 1996 team's run because Smith does not have a first-round draft pick on this squad. This is a true team, and it is worthy of a No. 1 seed based upon its play, not upon its numbers. Kentucky has won five games against Top 25 competition, with the only loss coming to Louisville. That just happens to be Kentucky's last loss. The Wildcats have won 14 games against the Top 50, and 21 games against the Top 100. Smith is my coach of the year, because he has molded a group of very good players into a great team, one whose will exceeds its skill. That is what coaching is all about, and why Smith is one of the great coaches in the college game.

No.1 Contenders

Texas: No other team has a better claim for a No. 1 seed than Rick Barnes and the Texas Longhorns. Barnes has a team that can rebound, especially on the offensive end, defend and score with relative ease. The Lonhorns have won five games against Top 25 teams, and the effort put forth by Texas in its losses would have beaten almost every team in America except teams in the top five. Texas lost at Kansas in an absolute thriller, a game in which there was no loser. The Longhorns dropped December games to Notre Dame by six in a neutral-court shootout, and by three at Arizona in McKale. This week, Texas will have to beat the winner of Texas Tech-Baylor and likely Oklahoma to reach the Big 12 final. If the Longhorns reach the final, they will get a No. 1 seed -- win or lose Sunday.

Nick Collison
Nick Collison
Kansas: The Jayhawks were one of my preseason Final Four teams, and if Wayne Simien were healthy, there would be little chance to keep the Jayhawks away from New Orleans. Without Simien, the Jayhawks have been excellent, and have beaten all but three teams they have played since Simien's injury. Kansas has four wins against the Top 25, and seven wins against the Top 50 -- and with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament, the selection committee will have to honor the fact that Kansas won the Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks will avoid Texas or Oklahoma until the final, and will be getting a tired team. That bodes well for Roy Williams' team. Pencil in the Jayhawks as a No. 1 seed, and get ready to watch KU roll to a regional final.

A Shot At No.1
Oklahoma: The Big 12 has three teams that can snag a No. 1 seed. Oklahoma is the third. The only reason the Sooners are behind the Jayhawks and Longhorns is because Kansas finished atop the Big 12, while Texas took down the Sooners, twice. Oklahoma has won just two games against Top 25 competition, but seven against Top 50 teams. Kelvin Sampson's team really guards people, and very few will get to 70 against the Sooners. If OU wins the Big 12 tournament, there is a No. 1 seed in its future. Oklahoma has a comparable résumé to both Marquette and Wake Forest, but has the chance to separate itself from both with quality wins in the Big 12 tournament that the others cannot match. Now, if the NCAA Tournament were decided by the "Bubble Drill," OU would be national champions, hands down.

Gerry McNamara
Gerry McNamara
Syracuse: The Orange has won eight games against Top 50 competition, including four games against Top 25 teams. The Orangemen have beaten Missouri, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame (twice), not to mention Michigan State on the road. While these are impressive numbers and results, it is short of what Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas have accomplished. To gain a No. 1 seed, the Orange have to win the Big East tournament and hope there are some Big 12 upsets. Without the Big East crown, Syracuse will still be slotted into a No. 2 seed.

Marquette: The Golden Eagles have done an incredible job in winning the Conference USA title outright, becoming the only team to do that other than Cincinnati. The Golden Eagles have beaten Villanova, Wisconsin, Cincinnati (twice), Wake Forest and Louisville. Their only loses have been to Notre Dame, East Carolina, Dayton (OT) and to Louisville at the buzzer. If Marquette wins the Conference USA title, and Syracuse does the same in the Big East, it'll be an interesting No. 1 seed debate if Texas, Oklahoma and/or Kansas lose early in the Big 12 tournament.

Wake Forest: Has any coach in America, except for perhaps Tubby Smith, done a better job than Skip Prosser? The other night on College Gamenight, I said that Prosser guided Wake Forest to the ACC Championship (by a full two games) with "smoke and mirrors". That was meant as a compliment to Prosser, because he took a young team that was barely on solid food all the way to an ACC title. Wake Forest, in my estimation, was going to finish in the middle of the ACC pack, but won the title with a great senior, a great coach, and some young kids that believed in their coach. This year, the ACC title. Next year, maybe they'll start shaving. While Wake Forest has had a great year, and should be a No. 2 seed at worst if it wins the ACC tournament title, it is unlikely that the Demon Deacons will snag a No. 1 seed. Wake will play the winner of Clemson-Florida State, and then the winner of N.C. State-Georgia Tech. None of those teams are in the RPI Top 50, and beating them will not give Wake a big boost in the eyes of the Committee. While the Deacons have had a great year, the ACC is not strong enough to give Wake Forest a No. 1 seed without the teams above staging a major collapse at the same time.

This week's conference tournaments aren't just about No. 1 seeds. They take on immediate importance when it comes to a team's chances to get into the NCAA field and be seeded as high as possible.

Consider this: the selection committee will be in their Indianapolis hotel suites watching teams play and going over data on each squad's season. The committee is trying to determine which teams to invite to play for a tournament title to be played on a neutral court. What could be better evidence of how a team would play in a tournament setting than how it plays in a tournament setting?

The conference tournaments are played right before the committee's eyes, and it is the last impression the committee has of a team before making its final decisions.

If a team is on the bubble, the week of its conference tournament is by far the most important week of the season.

Committee Tidbits: The committee will arrive in Indianapolis on Wednesday and immediately take a vote. There are two ballots to fill out: one that is for teams that they believe should be in the field; and the other for teams they would like to have considered for inclusion into the field.

The committee members stay in the same hotel rooms in Indianapolis each year, and there is no need to use room keys because nobody but authorized personnel can get up to the top floor where the committee stays. There are two conference rooms, one that is used as a "war room" for voting, discussion and bracketing, and another room that has four television sets to monitor games. Teams can play out of a bid or a seed right in front of the committee's eyes.

The committee is well fed in Indianapolis, getting food brought up from Don Shula's restaurant downstairs. There is also plenty of ice cream available (it doesn't have to be like breaking rocks the whole week, you know).

Certainly, reasonable minds can disagree with the decisions of the committee. However, one thing that is fact and not subject to reasonable debate is that this season will provide the committee with the biggest challenges that any committee has faced. Deciding who is in and who is out will be brutal, and seeding this NCAA Tournament will be a nightmare.


Q & A with Jay Bilas

Send in college basketball questions to ESPN's Jay Bilas, who will answer a few each week as the season continues.

Jay Bilas is a college basketball analyst at ESPN and a regular contributor to ESPN.com.











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