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Thursday, January 16
Updated: January 17, 2:47 PM ET
 
Irish hope to shoot down streak in Rupp

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

Chris Thomas
Chris Thomas can't try to do it all himself Saturday if Notre Dame expects to leave Rupp Arena with a victory.
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 16 Kentucky
GAME TIME: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET (CBS)
LAST MEETING: Kentucky 72, Notre Dame 65 (Jan. 19, 2002)
SERIES: Kentucky leads, 39-17

Tubby Smith loses a first-round draft pick (Tayshaun Prince), a nationally-rated recruit (Rashaad Carruth), a terrific big man prospect to a rival SEC school (Jason Parker) ... and the Wildcats are a better team because of it.

How can that be? Because Tubby Smith can coach, and because these Wildcats will not allow petty jealousies and off-court distractions bother them.

Notre Dame, meanwhile, is among the most skilled teams in the country and Mike Brey has a cadre of players who can all dribble, pass and shoot from the perimeter. The key for the Irish, however, is to share the ball and avoid battles on an individual level. When the Irish play together, and don't try to take it on themselves to make an individual move, Notre Dame can beat anyone.

Surprisingly, the Wildcats have won the past eight meetings between these two non-conference rivals dating back to 1990. And this year, this game is just like playing a bigger Pittsburgh team all over again for the Irish. And, when the Irish take quick shots, they provide opponents transition opportunities, which leads to the tempo getting beyond where they want it to be. The Irish are hard to guard, and can spread the floor and stretch a defense out beyond its ability to help and recover. As long as the shots they take are within the offense.

Notre Dame Breakdown: The Irish love to spread out defenses, attacking inside-out, and swinging the ball from side to side before attacking with the dribble or the shot. Brey believes by swinging the ball, the defense is less able to react because it has been forced to move. It also conditions his team to make the extra pass (which forces the defense to work extra hard to cover it). Notre Dame is an excellent passing team, when it decides to make passes and not go it alone. Brey's team runs 4-around-1 motion, with a few quick-hitting sets mixed in to give his team structure.

On the defensive end, the Irish play man-to-man and pick up at the 3-point line. It is a sloughing man, which allows passes around the perimeter but not penetrating passes. Notre Dame forces to the outside to give better weakside help, but often try to play straight up and stay in front.

Notre Dame's strength is its excellent guards, led by senior Matt Carroll, who is one of the most underrated players in the country, not to mention, one of the best "basketball players" in the nation. He may not be a great athlete, but Carroll knows how to play, can really shoot it and is deadly from the corners. He moves without the ball and has improved as much as any player in America over his four years in South Bend.

Chris Thomas is an elite point guard who creates for himself and others, can go off the dribble, and can shoot it well when he takes good shots. Thomas has total control of Brey's system, and when he plays in control, there are very few guards better in the country.

Danny Miller is skilled with the ball, has a great feel and is a streaky shooter. Miller can guard people and does it with his smarts and skill level. Torin Francis is a big-time prospect who is versatile around the basket, has great hands and good footwork. He is long, can make moves and reminds me of a poor man's Joe Smith (who is no longer a poor man). Francis rebounds well, but will have to give his toughest effort of the season against Kentucky.

Two important players for Notre Dame will be Jordan Cornette, a 6-foot-9 forward with perimeter ability and the ability to pass the ball and keep it alive; and Chris Quinn, a point guard who can handle and pass. Expect these two to play major minutes and roles in this game.

Kentucky Breakdown: This is a typical Kentucky team under the direction of Tubby Smith. The Wildcats try to get it in the paint first, trying to get the ball inside through a high-low look, with basket cuts, inside cuts, and going hard to the offensive glass. But, while Kentucky wants to pound it inside first, it doesn't just settle for jumpshots when the ball is kicked out. Kentucky is making use of a bunch driving opportunities, especially off of shotfakes. When a shot goes up, the Wildcats crash the boards hard, with three and sometimes four guys to the offensive glass.

Kentucky is deep and can legitimately play up to 10 guys. Keith Bogans is the leading scorer, and he has been a terrific college player for Kentucky. Bogans is doing a better job of taking good spot shots, getting out in transition, and running the floor. Bogans may be suspect handler and shooter on the next level, but he has been a very good college player over his four years. He has the ability to beat a team late in games.

Gerald Fitch is a do-it-all guard who has played the point with very good success. He is always around the ball, tough, hard-nosed and physical. Erik Daniels is the lefty small forward who is a good shooter and passes well within the Kentucky offense. He is long and can guard inside or out on the floor. Marquis Estill and Jules Camara run a lot of high-low together and both can defend and rebound. Camara is a shotblocker, but Estill is foul-prone and subject to getting caught behind inside. Chuck Hayes is versatile, Cliff Hawkins is quick and a good penatrator and defender, and Antwain Barbour can go off the dribble and attack the basket.

Kentucky will press full court, and look for traps out of a man press, a 1-2-1-1 (with a man on the ball) or a 2-2-1 press after a 3-pointer. Through the last several games, Kentucky's defense has been swarming, active and getting steals and forcing bad shots. The Wildcats forced 22 turnovers against Vanderbilt in a spectacular defensive performance in the second half.

Kentucky is trending upward right now, and playing with a great deal of confidence. The Wildcats are shooting right at 50 percent on the season and are outrebounding opponents by over four boards a game. Kentucky is a very good offensive rebounding team, and should look to exploit Notre Dame on the backboards.

Key Matchup: Chris Thomas and Gerald Fitch






Thomas
Notre Dame
Thomas is the better prospect, but Fitch is more experienced and perhaps a little bit tougher. Fitch had 18 points and five steals against Vanderbilt, and is the point guard that runs the team best. Fitch is strong and tough-minded, and has the ability to play successfully against a player of Thomas' caliber. Thomas is the key to this game, for both teams, and must stay within himself for Notre Dame to win. Thomas has the chance to be great every time he steps onto the court. When he controls tempo, and makes the right reads for the situation, Thomas is among the top five point guards in college. If he controls the tempo in this one, Notre Dame can win at Rupp.





Fitch
Kentucky

Key Stat
Rebounding and Turnovers
Kentucky's defense has been forcing turnovers and Notre Dame cannot afford to cough it up in the press or the halfcourt. The Wildcats are bigger and stronger, so look for them to try to exert their physical advantage on the glass. Francis, Cornette, and Tom Timmermans must rebound aggressively for the Irish, while the guards must hit the boards as well.

What to Watch For
How Matt Carroll Plays The Game
Carroll moves without the ball, is able to use either hand, and stays on the floor to make plays. Carroll is one fine college basketball player, and he is All-Big East material. Carroll is a winner, and he knows how to play.








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