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Friday, February 14
Updated: February 28, 7:45 PM ET
 
Cinderella shakeup

By Ron Buck
ESPN.com

Dear Omaha, Neb.:

Don't shoot the messenger. It wasn't totally ESPN.com's fault. The public simply felt your Creighton Bluejays were too good to be a Cinderella story in the 2003 NCAA Tournament

For those following the Cinderella Watch over the past month, the biggest debate has been over whether a team ranked in the top 25 should still be considered a Cinderella. So, on the advise of users, we changed the wording in our weekly poll to "What team shouldn't be on the Cinderella Watch?" This certainly left plenty open to interpretation.

Does a team belong on the watch because it's not good enough? Or because it's too good?

Well, 1 in 4 users felt Creighton was too good to be on the watch, which means we'll open the Bluejays' spot to another deserving team this week. (By the way, fans of the Ragin' Cajuns should be thankful for the change -- Louisiana-Lafayette, while deserving in the eyes of ESPN.com, wouldn't be on the Watch this week had the question been phrased as in the past: "Who is your Cinderella team this week?"). To see how ESPN.com users voted last week, and read some of their comments, click on last week's Cinderella Comments.

Moving forward, the Watch has three new teams this week. And, oddly enough, they replace who many considered the three strongest Cinderellas -- Creighton, Butler and Kent State. But, as explained below, the Bluejays were "promoted" while the Bulldogs and Golden Flashes were "demoted" after each lost Wednesday night.

For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works: ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons:

1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. This has a new name this week: the "Creighton Rule" (a.k.a. "Gonzaga Rule")

2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance.

3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the team with the highest vote total is removed from the Watch, no questions asked.

But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about the Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with Cinderella Watch each week.

Here is this week's list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from Feb. 14 and team records are through Feb. 6 games.

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON COUGARS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 19-5
Southern: 9-2
RPI: No. 76
SOS: No. 196
Wyoming, 81-72
Oklahoma St., 66-58
Villanova, 71-69
Sat.: at Appalachian St.
Feb. 17: W. Carolina

It's Showdown Saturday in the So-Con, as division leaders clash in Boone, N.C. That's the home to Appalachian State, the other 9-2 team in the So-Con. But for another week, the Cougars hold down this spot on the Watch with two more victories -- extending their winning streak to a season-high eight games. The other winning streak came in the first six games of the season and included those marquee wins. But a win Saturday would be as important as beating Wyoming, Oklahoma State and Villanova to claim the Great Alaska Shootout title.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Appalachian State: The Mountaineers didn't help themselves by losing to Davidson, who itself looks vaguely familiar as a Cinderella. But the loss wasn't the end to one of the best low-major conference stories of the season. Remember, Appalachian State (16-6) was picked to finish last in the North Division, and they remain a perfect 11-0 in the Holmes Convocation Center, which by the way, is where Saturday's showdown will take place.

DAYTON FLYERS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-4
A-10: 9-1
RPI: No. 27
SOS: No. 75
Cincinnati, 75-69
Villanova, 80-78
Marquette, 92-85 (OT)
Sat.: vs. St. Joe's
Feb. 19: at Richmond

For a half it certainly looked like the Flyers would be "promoted" off the Watch along with Creighton. Then a double-digit lead at Xavier went West -- as in David West's 47-point performance that allowed the Musketeers to beat Dayton. Nevertheless, Dayton is the best bet to become the next choice of ESPN.com users to leave the Watch. The Flyers still lead the A-10's West Division by half-game over Xavier and own an RPI worthy of promotion. But, before they go, be sure to remember what Dayton has done to get such a solid tourney reputation. Then again, maybe they'll be back next week to talk about.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Weber State: A week ago, Saint Joseph's was waiting to take this spot. But if Dayton leaves, doesn't that mean it will have beaten the Hawks the process? And even with a loss, isn't St. Joe's too good as well to be a Cinderella? Just asking. There is no question, however, as to the validity of Weber State's Cinderella status. Not only have the Wildcats created havoc in past tourneys (see: Michigan State and North Carolina), but at 9-0 in the Big Sky and 19-5 overall, the Weber boys are certainly poised to put a scare into any first-round foe come March.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-6
Sun Belt: 9-1
RPI: No. 68
SOS: No. 144
at Miss. State, 79-76
at Charlotte, 68-47
Sat.: at N.M. State
Feb. 20: at Arkansas State

The Cajuns are playing with fire. Not only were they close to being voted off the Watch, but they needed overtime not once, but twice, in the Cajundome to extend their home-court winning streak to 20 games. While they cracked the Watch at home, it's time the Cajuns really prove they belong on this Watch. It's also time to hit the road for three games, starting with a nice little test at New Mexico State on Saturday. Then again, it's not like La.-Lafayette isn't used to life on the road. Entering February, the Cajuns had played 13 of 19 games away from home.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Valparaiso: The Crusaders were once on this Watch, but the public didn't agree. Maybe this will help Valpo's case: The Crusaders have won nine of 10 games since losing three in a row to Purdue, Missouri and Notre Dame. At 8-1 in the Mid-Con, Valpo has once again risen to the top and certainly looks Cinderella worthy come March.

MANHATTAN JASPERS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 19-4
MAAC: 12-2
RPI: No. 57
SOS: No. 204
St. John's, 72-65
at Seton Hall, 74-70
Sun.: at Iona

At least the Jaspers can say they owned the nation's longest winning streak for all of 24 hours. That was the time between Louisville's loss and Manhattan's first defeat in 15 games -- to Fairfield, on its own court. It certainly wasn't Luis Flores' fault, but the difference between winning and losing against the Stags came down to his production. Flores poured in 44 at Fairfield, but was held to 27 in the two-point loss Thursday night. Say good bye to any talk of an at-large bid, but Manhattan has known all along its best route to the NCAAs is through the MAAC tournament title.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Fairfield: Why not? Thursday night's victory over Manhattan not only kept the Stags in contention for the regular-season title, but gave them the confidence to know it could happen again in the MAAC tournament.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 13-9
MAC: 9-3
RPI: No. 125
SOS: No. 165
at Kent State, 67-61 Sat.: at E. Michigan

Before you start firing off those emails about replacing one MAC team ranked in the top 50 with one outside the top 100 (not to mention any other teams who could have had this spot), look at a few recent numbers. First off, Northern Illinois has won nine of its past 10 conference games to take the top spot in the West. Yes, there are other mid-major or low-major teams on rolls, but we're talking about the MAC, folks. After losing four of its first five road games, it hasn't lost on the road in the MAC -- winning at such places as Ball State, Ohio, Bowling Green, and most recently, Kent State (67-61). NIU has gone from 4-8 in the non-conference, to an early pest in the MAC, to now a possible team to beat in next month's MAC tournament. Sure, NIU has way too many losses -- good and bad -- to be on the selection committee's radar. But MAC teams are more than aware of the Huskies' ability to, quite frankly, emerge as the lone MAC team in the NCAAs.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Troy State: The Trojans cracked the Mid-Major Top 10 this week, so why aren't they on the Cinderella Watch? Good question. If the men of Troy can get past their closest pursuers in the A-Sun (Mercer and Central Florida) on the road this week, we may not have a good enough answer to keep 'em off the Watch.

PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 13-5
Ivy: 5-0
RPI: No. 90
SOS: No. 184
at Villanova, 72-58
at USC, 99-61
Fri.: Yale
Sat.: Brown

No team has had a quirkier schedule than the Quakers. Maybe that's why they fell out of the Watch's sight, not to mention the national scene. Remember, ESPN.com called Penn the best team in Philadelphia back in the preseason. Well, that still may be true -- although Saint Joseph's fans will cry foul on that claim. But this is a team that started a little slow, and just when it appeared to have gotten its feet under it (beating Temple and Villanova), classes cut any momentum short and Penn took a 20-day break on Dec. 10. When they returned on Dec. 30, the Quakers promptly lost at Providence and in Colorado to slip to 3-4. Ah, but since then, and with regular game action, Penn has reeled off 10 wins in 11 games -- losing only at St. Joe's. Penn is perfect playing in the Ivy, having just knocked off Princeton. It can take sole possession of first place with a win tonight against Yale and over Brown on Saturday.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
UNC-Wilmington: This spot was the Seahawks to lose, which they did at Old Dominon. The Seahawks appeared ready to string together more than three or five wins in a row, but still haven't put it all together yet. UNCW is still up by a half-game in the CCA, but no lock to get into the dance.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SALUKIS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-4
MVC: 12-1
RPI: No. 63
SOS: No. 192
None Sat.: at Bradley
Feb. 19: vs. SMS

Suddenly, the Salukis find themselves in one of the best Bracket Buster matchups. And, while a victory over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Feb. 22 won't do much as SIU would like for its NCAA résumé, but it certainly will give 'em some much-needed publicity out of the MVC -- where all news seems to begin and end with Creighton. Don't worry Saluki fans, you've got at least one more shot at the Jays.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Holy Cross: As we said last week, no team has come closer to bigger first-round upsets than the Crusaders over the past two seasons. If the Cross can get back into the Dance -- they lead the Patriot League by a game over Lehigh -- just think what having 7-6 Neil Fingleton in the middle for a few minutes could mean. Just a thought. By the way, Holy Cross has won 12 of 13 games, losing only at American.

WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE PANTHERS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 20-5
Horizon: 11-2
RPI: No. 64
SOS: No. 182
Butler, 69-65,
Sat: at Youngstown St.

This story isn't new in Milwaukee, where Marquette isn't the only team making headlines. But, as recently as last week, we said Illinois-Chicago could take this spot. Scratch that. The Panthers changed the script and beat the Flames for the second time this season, 81-78 on Wednesday night, while Butler was losing at Loyola-Chicago, 73-63. Already at 20 wins, the Panthers still aren't in position to get an at-large bid. So, winning a wide-open Horizon tournament is a must. For those who don't know much about Wisconsin-Milwaukee's season, two of its five losses came at Wisconsin in the season opener and at Georgia in early December. The nation gets its first look at the Panthers in the Bracket Buster when they travel to Southern Illinois.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Butler: We haven't given up on the Bulldogs, it's just that losing at Loyola-Chicago gives us a reason to give another Horizon team props this week. Butler gets the Panthers at home in the season finale when the conference's No. 1 seed could be on the line.

Ron Buck is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com.






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