| ESPN Network: ESPN | NBA.com | NHL.com | ABC | Radio | EXPN | Insider | Shop | Fantasy |
| |
| Friday, March 7 From Championship Week to Cinderella story? By Ron Buck ESPN.com |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
It's time to get serious. Time to find those teams in the land of mid-majors who not only will get to the dance, but make a first-round opponent sweat when they see the field of 65 announced on Selection Sunday. This will be the final Cinderella Watch until the NCAA Tournament bracket is announced. So, the Watch's job starts by sorting through Championship Week, and locating eight teams who'll either get into the dance via an at-large bid, or by winning their conference tournaments. It wasn't an easy task, but we're confident in these eight teams. But again, a season's worth of work can be wasted without winning a conference tournament. That's why Championship Week is so much fun. Before we get to this week, let's review what happened last week. The public didn't see a Cinderella story coming out of either Troy State or Mercer, so it voted both off the Watch. It was a tough call. Neither the Trojans or Bears lost a game. But then again, only Valparaiso (which finished second to the Troy State/Mercer combo in the public's voting) lost last week. That means eight of the nine teams on last week's Watch didn't lose -- by far the best week of teams, as a group, on the Watch this season. Valparaiso losing this late, even if it was at Oral Roberts, worries the Watch. That's why the Crusaders are missing this week. We replaced Valpo with a team that should be dancing win or lose this weekend -- Southern Illinois. All the Salukis did was beat Creighton and win the Missouri Valley Conference title outright. The Salukis aren't a lock to get an at-large bid, but the past nine MVC regular-season champions that failed to win the conference tournament all received at-large bids to the tournament. That leaves one more spot open for an old friend -- Manhattan. We didn't like how the Jaspers finished the season, but still like their position in the MAAC. Manhattan won the regular season, thus earned a bye into the conference tournament semifinals. Two wins and their dancing, which is good enough for us at this point. For those still new to the Watch (where have you been?), here is how it works: ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons: 1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. This has a new name this week: the "Creighton Rule" (a.k.a. "Gonzaga Rule") 2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance. 3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the team with the highest vote total is removed from the Watch, no questions asked. But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about the Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with Cinderella Watch each week. Here is this week's list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from March 7 and team records are through March 6 games.
Forgive College Gamenight for omitting the Bulldogs from their field of at-large teams Thursday night. Hey, everyone is entitled to their opinion. But we just can't see the Bulldogs being snubbed for a second time -- win or lose in the Horizon League tournament. And once in the field of 65, Butler's been known to do damage. Two years ago, the Bulldogs ripped Wake Forest in the first round. The year before, they pushed a Florida squad that reached the Final Four into OT before losing by a point. When "Butler" shows up in the bracket on Selection Sunday, the team slotted with the Bulldogs won't be happy. But winning the Horizon tourney is still something the Bulldogs need to do to prove they belong in the field, no questions asked. Butler received a bye into the semifinals, where they face either Loyola-Chi., or Detroit. The Bulldogs split with Loyola, losing in Chicago. They swept Detroit. Who do you think the Bulldogs are rooting for?
The Crusaders were nearly perfect in the Patriot League's regular season. Now they'll have to be a perfect 3-0 to get into the dance. Two wins in the Show Place Arena on Saturday and Sunday sets the Crusaders up to earn the NCAA bid on their own court as the conference's top seed. A year ago, the Crusaders won on American's court to get the Patriot League's automatic bid. This year, the tables could be reversed, with American as the No. 2 seed. Holy Cross has won 17 of 18 games and were unbeaten at home over the course of the regular season. It's closest call was American, a 68-66 victory. It's only Patriot League loss also came at American. A rematch of last year's title game on March 14 would certainly be interesting.
Manhattan may have blown its shot at an at-large bid with three losses over the final five regular season games, but the Jaspers still have the best shot to claim the MAAC's automatic bid. Why? The league saw fit to move its regular season champion into the semifinals and thus only two wins from the NCAAs. The Jaspers' losses over the final few days of the regular season weren't all that bad, either. A two-point setback at second-place Fairfield, which the Jaspers beat in Connecticut. A double-overtime loss at Iona, who the Jaspers beat to close out the regular season. And a four-point loss at Siena, which won its final five regular season games. Manhattan may have lost a little steam after winning 14 straight, but it can certainly pull off a first-round upset if it takes care of business this weekend in Jersey.
The Quakers need to win two of three remaining Ivy League games to go dancing. Remember, the Ivy doesn't have a postseason tournament, so the regular season champion gets the automatic bid. Penn has a two-game lead over Brown, which it has swept this season. That makes the Quakers the safest Cinderella on this list, which is saying something after Penn's up-and-down season. But over the last two months, no mid-major team has been more impressive than Penn, which has won 12 straight and 16 of 17 games overall since starting the season 3-4.
Good news and bad news for the Seahawks. First the bad news. The CAA didn't alter its postseason tournament like some mid-majors to reward the regular season champion, so UNCW has to win three games to get the automatic bid. Now the good news. Old Dominion landed in the other side of the bracket, and must beat the No. 3 seed, and most likely, No. 2 seed, before it gets a shot at the top-seeded Seahawks in a possible title-game matchup. What's so special about the sixth-seeded Monarchs? Well, they swept UNCW in the regular season.
The Salukis put a loss at Bradley in the rear view mirror and mowed down the MVC in route to the regular season title. What it does in the conference tournament still matters, but remember, the past nine regular season champions have received at-large bids. And this year, that meant beating a highly-regarded Creighton squad over the course of 18 games. SIU's victory over the Bluejays not only clinched the title, but may have clinched an at-large bid. A third meeting between the teams in a possible MVC title game on Big Monday would be a great way to tip off Championship Week.
The perfect Big Sky regular season is complete, not it's time for the Wildcats to validate 14 regular-season wins with a conference title. Sorry, that's life in a low-major league. It may not be right, but beating the likes of Sacramento State or Portland State isn't going to impress the committee enough on March 16. No matter, the Wildcats only need to win two more on their own court to make any at-large questions moot. And once in the dance, they can don damage. Just ask Michigan State or North Carolina fans.
The Hilltoppers lost Todor Pandov in the season opener. They never really had Chris Marcus. And while they may not be the top 25 teams most predicted they'd be with a healthy Pandov and Marcus, they can get back to the NCAAs without either player. Finally figuring out who they were this season without their stars, Western Kentucky has reeled off nine straight wins heading into the Sun Belt tournament. Included in the win was a victory over Louisiana Lafayette in the Cajundome, where the Hilltoppers snapped Louisiana-Lafayette's 21-game home winning streak. David Boyden and Patrick Sparks are still among the best mid-major duos in the country and WKU is suddenly the favorite again to emerge out of the Sun Belt with an NCAA bid. Ron Buck is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com. |
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
