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Friday, February 7
Updated: February 19, 11:34 AM ET
 
New Cinderellas to Watch

By Ron Buck
ESPN.com

The first week of February means the nation starts to focus in on those teams who could become giant-killers in March. Here at ESPN.com, we've had our eye on such teams all season.

Some have lived up to early indications that they could become Cinderella stories, while others haven't been able to fill the roles because of various reasons. And then there are the teams who've come out of nowhere to show they can join the likes of Cinderella stories Creighton, Kent State and Butler and Southern Illinois in the NCAA Tournament.

Teams like Appalachian State, Troy State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Chicago-Illinois are teams to get used to hearing about from today until Championship Week. Not all will make the dance, but ESPN.com will follow their quest.

Two squads on last week's Watch missing this week are Fresno State and Valparaiso. The Crusaders could very well find their way into the NCAA Tournament, but lost their spot on this Watch because of the public's lack of respect. Fresno State's loss to Nevada, meanwhile, raised a few questions as to whether or not the Bulldogs were the most deserving of one of the eight spots each week.

To see how ESPN.com voted and read some of their comments about these and other teams on and off the Watch, click on last week's Cinderella Comments from ESPN.com users.

For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works: ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons:

1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. Again, call it the "Gonzaga Rule."

2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance.

3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the team with the highest vote total is removed from the Watch, no questions asked.

But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about the Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with Cinderella Watch each week.

Here is this week's list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from Feb. 7 and team records are through Feb. 6 games.

BUTLER BULLDOGS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-3
Horizon: 7-1
RPI: No. 51
SOS: No. 179
W. Kentucky, 63-60
Saint Louis, 68-46
Sat: Illinois-Chi.
Feb. 13: Loyola-Chi.

Suddenly, the Horizon league isn't a two-team race and the Bulldogs better be ready Saturday for a Chicago-Illinois team poised to take over the top spot. Butler rebounded nicely from losing to Duke, cruising past Cleveland State by 16. But what may concern some Butler fans is the lack of significant power rating points from the Duke loss. The SOS is still nothing to shout about and Butler actually dropped a couple RPI spots this week. Remember, Butler chose to play in Cameron instead of the "Backet Buster Saturday". A decision that could get plenty of second-guessing on Selection Sunday if Butler isn't the Horizon champion.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Illinois-Chicago: We'll find out if the Flames have any real heat this week, as they go to Butler and Wisconsin-Milwaukee in back-to-back games. But the Flames, who did their best work in the conference tournament last season, have certainly heated up the Horizon race. Up first is Butler on Saturday, where Chicago-Illinois tries to avenge a three-point loss to Butler back on Jan. 4. The Flames go for a sweep of Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Feb. 13.

COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-5
Southern: 7-2
RPI: No. 74
SOS: No. 175
Wyoming, 81-72
Oklahoma St., 66-58
Villanova, 71-69
Sat.: at Furman
Feb. 10: Citadel

The Cougars have strung together six straight SoCon victories -- their longest winning streak since opening the season 6-0. It's hard to say which streak, however, is more important to C of C's tournament hopes. The first streak included those marquee wins, while the current one has the Cougars looking once again like the team favored to earn that automatic bid. Then again, the Cougars were a Mike Benton tip-in with 11 seconds left in the game away from losing to UNC Greensboro on Monday. Still not sold on the Cougars, which is why ...

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Appalachian State: ... the Mountaineers are more than ready to move into this spot if C of C stumbles. Appalachian State is one of the best low-major conference stories of the season. Picked to finish last in the North Division after seasons of 10 and 11 wins, the Mountaineers are perfect at home (11-0) and two games up on anyone in the North at 8-1. Certainly a threat to take the automatic bid, the Mountaineers (15-5) get a chance to measure up with C of C on Feb. 15 when they host the Cougars. But more on that next week, assuming both take care of business this week.

CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 20-2
MVC: 10-1
RPI: No. 44
SOS: No. 207
Notre Dame, 80-75
BYU, 74-64
Sat.: Bradley
Feb. 12: SMS

Not sure if it's a case of other teams' fans wanting to create room for their team, or misplaced claims of disrespect by the Bluejays' fans. But being on this Watch shouldn't be considered a slap in the face. Creighton is a Cinderella story. Fans should enjoy it, not cry for reasons why the Bluejays are still considered a Cinderella. For the record, ESPN.com has done all it can to pump up the Bluejays and Kyle Korver. Then again, the SOS cracked 200 this week -- a danger sign for "under-seeding" come Selection Sunday.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Troy State: The only reason Creighton leaves the Watch is if we "promote" the Bluejays off it. That's not going to happen. If Creighton suddenly forgets how it won 20 games, well, a team like Troy State would certainly be happy to take this spot. Nine JUCO players have turned the Trojans (18-4, 9-1) into the Atlantic Sun's latest Cinderella-story-in-waiting (see: Florida Atlantic and Georgia State). Whether or not Troy State ever gets a spot on this list, the Trojans could be fun to watch in March.

DAYTON
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 16-3
A-10: 8-0
RPI: No. 21
SOS: No. 71
Cincinnati, 75-69
Villanova, 80-78
Marquette, 92-85 (OT)
Sat.: at Xavier
Feb. 12: GW

We almost "promoted" the Flyers off the Watch, but we'll let things take care of themselves on Saturday. A victory over the Musketeers and Dayton is well on its way to becoming the most dangerous Cinderella in March. Yes, even more so than Creighton. Why? The Flyers will have done more against better competition. The A-10 may be the weakest of the major conferences this year, but it remains a few steps ahead of the MVC top to bottom. And we haven't even mentioned the Flyers' non-conference scalps in C-USA and the Big East. But we are getting ahead of ourselves a bit, which is what Dayton nearly did in a one-point win over Duquesne on Wednesday. But its ninth-straight win translates into its longest streak since 1989-90.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Saint Joseph's: Did you catch at defensive performance Monday night in the Big Five's fiercest rivalry? St. Joe's led Villanova 41-9 en route to an all-too-easy 92-75 victory. The Hawks (16-3, 6-2) are as big a surprise as they were a disappointment last year. Like 2001, when St. Joe's won 26 games, Jameer Nelson (18.5 ppg) has help in the backcourt in Delonte West (17.5 ppg) and spearheads a ball-Hawking defense. Saint Joseph's, barring a complete collapse, will be in the dance and along with its A-10 partners a scary first-round matchup ... and possibly beyond.

KENT STATE
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 17-2
MAC: 10-1
RPI: No. 27
SOS: No. 119
at Rhode Island, 82-63
at BC, 86-83 (OT)
Sat.: at N. Illinois
Feb. 12: at Ball State

What will three wins in the MAC do for you? Improve one's RPI by 12 spots, that's what. Beating Western Michigan 78-71 in Kalamazoo was the most impressive of the three Golden Flashes' victories. Antonio Gates, however, was equally awesome in all three wins -- scoring 28 against WMU; posting his 15th double-double (24 and 11) against Ohio; and then pouring in 26 points at home against Bowling Green. Then again, as Gates goes, so does Kent. The Golden Flashes are 19-4 over the last two years when Gates scores 20-plus points. Kent also is proving once again this season it can win anywhere, extending its MAC road winning streak to 13 straight games.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Pennsylvania: Like Creighton, it's highly unlikely Kent will be dropped or promoted from the Watch. But you remember the Quakers, don't you? The team billed as Philly's best in the preseason by none other than ESPN.com. Well, Penn hasn't exactly played up to expectations, but since stumbling out of the blocks 3-4, Penn has put together a nice 7-1 run -- losing only at Saint Joseph's (which has proven to be Philly's best). The Quakers have knocked off USC and La Salle during its resurgence and stand 2-0 in early Ivy League play. Penn is playing well enough to get into the dance. If it keep it up, earning the automatic bid, the Quakers have the talent to give a No. 2 or No. 3 seed a scare.

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 15-6
Sun Belt: 7-1
RPI: No. 84
SOS: No. 157
at Miss. State, 79-76
at Charlotte, 68-47
Sat.: New Orleans
Feb. 11: Denver

Forget the NCAAs, the Ragin' Cajuns should be able to crash the Bracket Buster in two weeks. The Sun Belt's best team all year avenged only conference loss with victory over South Alabama -- their 18th straight victory in the Cajundome and fifth straight win overall. Western Kentucky got the preseason nod as team to beat, but injuries have left the Hilltoppers vulnerable even at home in the Sun Belt tournament. The Cajuns lost to WKU in the conference tourney final last year. Michael Southall is playing his best basketball of the season, scoring a career-high 24 against South Alabama, while senior guard Brad Boyd averages over 17 a game.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Weber State: The Wildcats haven't been forgotten, simply squeezed out of the eight coveted spots on the Watch. All Weber State did last week was take control of the Big Sky by beating Eastern Washington 74-61 to take a two-game lead. The victim of the public's vote last week, Weber State (17-5, 7-0) will be heard from again -- if not next week, or the next -- certainly in March.

MANHATTAN JASPERS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 18-3
MAAC: 11-1
RPI: No. 57
SOS: No. 204
St. John's, 72-65
at Seton Hall, 74-70
Sat.: vs. Canisius
Feb. 13: vs. Fairfield

The Jaspers made the biggest jump in the RPI among Cinderella Watch teams -- rising from 83 to 57 in a week that saw Manhattan extend its winning streak to 14 games. It's time to start looking at at-large possibilities if the MAAC tournament turns into another free-for-all. It's also time somebody started mentioning Luis Flores in the same breath as Kyle Korver, Antonio Gates and Blake Stepp when it comes to the top mid-major players in the country. Flores has been the MAAC's player of the week six times and hasn't relinquished the honor in a month. Flores has failed to score 20 points or more in just one of the Jaspers' 14 straight wins -- torching Fairfield for 44 and hitting at least 30 three times.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
UNC-Wilmington: The Seahawks haven't put it all together yet, but are getting closer to last year's March form that saw 'em take out USC before pushing Indiana to the brink of a Sweet 16 appearance. Brett Blizzard (remember him?) is still around, scoring just under 22 points a game, while UNCW leads the Colonial at 8-2 and has won 12 of its past 14 games. The Seahawks should be one of those 13 seeds to consider moving into the second round when filling out the office pool.

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
   By The Numbers  Marquee Wins  Up Next
Overall: 15-4
MVC: 10-1
RPI: No. 67
SOS: No. 181
None Sat.: at SMS
Feb. 13: vs. N. Iowa

Getting back to the Sweet 16 may be a little too much to ask of the Salukis, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Salukis back in the dance. Yes, SIU lost at Creighton. But, remember, the Salukis led by 12 in the second half before fouls and Korver proved too much to overcome. Since the loss, SIU has strung together five straight wins and face an interesting matchup with SMS (13-6, 9-1) -- the darkhorse in what's become a three-team race in the MVC. If SIU can hold court Saturday, it should be in position to claim the regular-season title with a victory over Creighton in the regular-season finale.

Waiting To Replace Them ...
Holy Cross: No team has come closer to bigger first-round upsets than the Crusaders over the past two seasons. And if they can get the Patriot League's bid again this year (it leads by a game over Lehigh at the halfway point), look for the Cross to be in position to make the third upset bid the charm. Holy Cross has won 10 of 11 games, losing only at American.

Ron Buck is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com.






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