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| Friday, January 31 Updated: February 7, 4:30 PM ET Too many Cinderella candidates for one Watch By Ron Buck ESPN.com |
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If we agreed with every fan who emailed the Cinderella Watch the past week, we'd have to created a second, third and possible fourth Cinderella Watch. There are just that many "deserving" teams according to the facts, numbers and arguments posed to ESPN.com. And while the emails helped the Watch focus a little better, we still can't include every team that may fit a glass slipper come March. But, don't worry, we're watching possible Cinderellas in Nacogdoches, Texas; Boone, N.C.; Morehead, Ky.; Kalamazoo, Mich., and Worcester, Mass. To see why, click on last week's Cinderella Comments from ESPN.com users. The Cinderella Watch, however, is an evolving process, which means this week's list has changed. Gone is Oral Robers and Weber State -- for different reasons. The Golden Eagles lost their spot to fellow Mid-Con squad, and regular on the Watch, Valparaiso. As for Weber State? We'll that's where the weekly poll comes into play. And last week, the Wildcats fell 167 votes shy of staying on the list. For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works: ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons: 1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to a favorite. Again, call it the "Gonzaga Rule." 2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance. 3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the lowest vote-getter each week is removed from the Watch, no questions asked. But be sure to follow along each week, these lists tend to change quite frequently. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about the Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with Cinderella Watch each week. Here is this week's list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings and team records are through Jan. 30 games.
Butler didn't get a win at Duke, but didn't get blown out, either. What the Bulldogs got were a few valuable power rating points (the SOS jumped nearly 40 spots), not to mention valuable confidence that they can play competitvely with the likes of a top-five team -- on its home court, no less. It's now time to get back to the business of winning the Horizon League title, and more importantly, the automatic bid.
The Cougars nearly got the boot by the public, but held onto this spot by a scant few votes and by winning two more SoCon games. One slip in conference, or a few less votes this week, and its bye-bye Charleston. Should be interesting to see if the public beats the SoCon to the punch.
Looked more like the Bluejays we expect to know and love come March with two wins last week. Oh, and congratulation to Dana Altman on his school-record win at Creighton. We've already touched on the Bluejays' season, which is already shaping up to be their best in 60 years. Some argue the Jays are too good to be a Cinderella, but again, it's all about perception. And losses to teams like Evansville keep Creighton among the ranks of Cinderellas.
No, the Atlantic 10 isn't too big to produce a Cinderella. Dayton simply needed a spot to open up. Now, it's up to the Flyers to keep it up. Dayton has won seven straight and six to start conference play. As the lone unbeaten in the A-10, Dayton has established itself as a quality at-large team with a solid profile to date. Wins over C-USA power Cincy and Marquette will open the selection committee's eyes, as will the win over Villanova. As for winning in the NCAAs? Just ask Duke how pesky the Flyers can be.
The Bulldogs will be an interesting case for the selection committee if they continue their current pace, but fail to win the automatic WAC bid. The RPI is solid, but the SOS is questionable -- and won't get any stronger against the likes of Nevada, UTEP and Boise State. As we said last week, this is not a top 25 team. Simply a very good team that could become a great story in March.
Lots of emails from Kalamazoo, Mich., this week. Well, going 4-4 in the MAC isn't going to get you on the Watch. Beating Kent on Saturday won't either, but it's a start. As for the Golden Flashes, beating Western Michigan will just be another notch in its MAC title belt.
Jaspers went outside the MAAC to pick up another "marquee" win (Yes, a 8-9 Seton Hall team qualifies as "marquee" in the world of mid-majors). A trip to Buffalo awaits Manhattan this week. But remember, Manhattan owns the state -- reeling off 11 straight wins -- including consecutive victories over Hofstra, St. John's, Iona, Marist, Siena and Niagara in 17 days. One correction from last week's Watch: Manhattan wasn't the MAAC's top seed in last year's tournament. It was No. 3, but it didn't make a difference, as the top four seeds all lost during Siena's stunning run to the NCAAs.
Maybe the lack of a marquee win clouded the Watch's vision, but six straight Mid-Con victories -- including Thursday's over Oral Roberts by 13 -- cleared things up. The Crusaders are no strangers to the Watch, and the 11-7 mark is deceiving. Just look at how close those SOS and RPI numbers are, which is all you need to know about the type of year its been for Valpo. Five of the seven losses have come to top-30 RPI clubs -- including Notre Dame, Purdue, Missouri, Cincinnati and Syracuse. And six have come in two three-game skids. But with six straight conference wins, it's clear the Crusaders are the team to Watch out of the Mid-Con. Ron Buck is the men's college basketball editor at ESPN.com.
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