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Here in "Bracketville," a place we invented long before the swoosh boys, there remains considerable consternation over new NCAA
bracketing procedures designed to reduce travel and create greater regional interest in the event.
However, while none of us can fully judge the implications of said procedures until Selection Sunday 2002, it is possible to build a hypothetical model for review. Even
better, it is doubly possible to review someone else's hypothetical model.
Last month, the NCAA crafted and circulated just such a model. The suits in Indy took the 2001 tournament field and re-bracketed the teams according to the new procedures. Armed with a copy of their grid, your intrepid "bracketologist" hereby offers a breakdown of the results.
Let's start by reviewing those teams (by sub-region) which, a year ago, received way too many frequent flier miles due to being placed in a region far, far away from home. For the purpose of the analysis to follow, let's define "far, far away" as being asked to play well over 500 miles away from home (not counting play-in participants):
MIDWEST/Dayton (3): Kansas, Hawaii, Cal State Northridge.
MIDWEST/Kansas City (6): Arizona, Mississippi, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Xavier, Iona.
SOUTH/Memphis (5): Michigan State, Virginia, California, Fresno State, Gonzaga.
SOUTH/New Orleans (5): North Carolina, Penn State, Providence, Temple, Princeton.
EAST/Greensboro (3): UCLA, Missouri, Utah State.
EAST/Long Island (6): Kentucky, Southern California, Iowa, Creighton, Oklahoma State, Southern Utah.
WEST/San Diego (7):Indiana, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Saint Joseph's, Brigham Young, Kent, UNC Greensboro.
WEST/Boise (8): Iowa State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Georgia State, Georgetown, George Mason, Hampton.
Recognizing that many, many more schools are located east of the Mississippi and that other bracketing principals (ie: conference
conflicts) need to be followed, the 2001 data is still somewhat alarming: 43 of 64 schools (67.2 percent) were placed beyond
reasonable driving distance of their fans/families.
Let's see how the NCAA re-bracketed the 2001 field after "unlocking" the first/second round sites from their corresponding geographic regions:
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MIDWEST REGION
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March 16, 2001: Dayton, Ohio
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1. Illinois
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16. Play-In Game winner |
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8. Wake Forest |
9. California |
March 16, 2001: Kansas City, Mo.
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5. Syracuse |
12. Utah State |
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4. Kansas
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13. Indiana State |
March 16, 2001: Memphis, Tenn.
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3. Mississippi
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14. Eastern Illinois |
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6. Cincinnati |
11. Butler |
March 15, 2001: San Diego, Calif.
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7. Penn State |
10. Georgetown |
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2. Arizona |
15. Southern Utah |
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EAST REGION
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March 15, 2001: Greensboro, N.C.
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1. Duke
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16. UNC-Greensboro |
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8. Tennessee |
9. Saint Joseph's |
March 15, 2001: Boise, Idaho
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5. Ohio State |
12. Hawaii |
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4. UCLA
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13. CS-Northridge |
March 15, 2001: Long Island, N.Y.
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3. Boston College |
14. Iona |
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6. Virginia |
11. BYU |
March 16, 2001: Memphis, Tenn.
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7. Iowa |
10. Missouri |
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2. Kentucky |
15. Princeton |
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SOUTH REGION
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March 16, 2001: Dayton, Ohio
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1. Michigan State
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16. Monmouth |
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8. Georgia |
9. Providence |
March 15, 2001: Boise, Idaho
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5. USC |
12. Gonzaga |
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4. Oklahoma
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13. Kent State |
March 16, 2001: New Orleans
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3. Florida
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14. Western Kentucky |
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6. Notre Dame |
11. Xavier |
March 16, 2001: Greensboro, N.C.
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7. Charlotte |
10. Oklahoma State |
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2. North Carolina |
15. Hampton |
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WEST REGION
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March 15, 2001: San Diego, Calif.
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1. Stanford
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16. Alabama State |
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8. Georgia Tech |
9. Fresno State |
March 16, 2001: New Orleans
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5. Texas |
12. Georgia State |
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4. Indiana
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13. Hofstra |
March 15, 2001: Long Island, N.Y.
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3. Maryland
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14. George Mason |
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6. Wisconsin |
11. Temple |
March 16, 2001: Kansas City, Mo.
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7. Arkansas |
10. Creighton |
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2. Iowa State |
15. Holy Cross |
So, how does the "we got screwed" list look now?
DAYTON (4): California, Georgia, Providence, Monmouth.
KANSAS CITY (2): Syracuse, Utah State.
MEMPHIS (2): Iowa, Princeton.
NEW ORLEANS (5): Indiana, Notre Dame, Xavier, Western Kentucky, Hofstra.
GREENSBORO (1): Oklahoma State.
LONG ISLAND (2): Wisconsin, Brigham Young.
SAN DIEGO (4): Penn State, Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Alabama State.
BOISE (5): Oklahoma, Ohio State, Southern California, Hawaii, Kent.
The results are quite dramatic. The number of schools sent beyond a reasonable driving distance from home drops from 43 to 25 (or
39.0 percent overall) in the revised bracket. As long as competitive conditions remain as neutral as in the past, this sample suggests
overwhelmingly that the reduction of travel is a fine idea.
Even before September 11.
Now, they can change the route, but not the destination. With or without new bracketing procedures designed to make the NCAA Tournament more "geo-friendly," we start the 2001-02 season with most of the usual suspects at the top of the bracket.
Just remember, these incredibly early projections aren't worth the paper they're printed on (oops, forgot, they're not even on paper!). What is valuable is the exercise of "regionalizing" the early rounds.
We'll start doing this more seriously around the first of the year, adding a bunch of new "bracketology" material along the way. In the meantime, Happy Hoops!
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SOUTH REGION
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March 15, 2002: Chicago, Ill.
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1. Illinois
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16. SWAC/Alabama State |
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8. Wyoming |
9. California |
March 15, 2002: Dallas, Texas
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5. Oklahoma State |
12. Arkansas |
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4. Memphis
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13. Miami, Fla. |
March 14, 2002: Sacramento, Calif.
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3. USC
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14. BIG WEST/Cal-Santa Barbara |
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6. Syracuse |
11. Colorado |
March 15, 2002: Washington, D.C.
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7. Mississippi |
10. Boston College |
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2. Maryland |
15. AMERICA EAST/Boston University |
Regional Finals: Lexington, Ky.
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WEST REGION
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March 14, 2002: Sacramento, Calif.
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1. UCLA
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16. BIG SOUTH/Winthrop |
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8. Providence |
9. Fresno State |
March 14, 2002: St. Louis, Mo.
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5. Alabama |
12. MAC/Central Michigan |
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4. Missouri
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13. MVC/Illinois State |
March 15, 2002: Dallas, Texas
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3. Virginia
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14. MID-CONTINENT/Valparaiso |
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6. WCC/Gonzaga |
11. Utah |
March 15, 2002: Chicago, Ill.
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7. Oklahoma |
10. Xavier |
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2. Iowa |
15. SLC/Texas-San Antonio |
Regional Finals: San Jose, Calif.
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EAST REGION
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March 15, 2002: Washington, D.C.
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1. Duke
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16. Play-In Game winner
NEC/Wagner vs. PATRIOT/Holy Cross |
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8. Indiana |
9. HORIZON/Butler |
March 14, 2002: Albuquerque, N.M.
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5. Stanford |
12. South Florida |
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4. Georgetown
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13. MAAC/Iona |
March 15, 2002: Pittsburgh, Pa.
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3. Saint Joseph's |
14. SOUTHERN/UNC-Greensboro |
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6. Texas |
11. Ohio State |
March 14, 2002: Greenville, S.C.
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7. Wake Forest |
10. ATLANTIC SUN/Georgia State |
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2. Florida |
15. OVC/Tennessee Tech |
Regional Finals: Syracuse, N.Y.
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MIDWEST REGION
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March 14, 2002: Greenville, S.C.
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1. Kentucky
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16. MEAC/South Carolina State |
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8. Cincinnati |
9. SUN BELT/Western Kentucky |
March 14, 2002: Albuquerque, N.M.
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5. Connecticut |
12. UTEP |
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4. Arizona
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13. COLONIAL/UNC-Wilmington |
March 15, 2002: Pittsburgh, Pa.
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3. Michigan State
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14. IVY/Pennsylvania |
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6. North Carolina |
11. Charlotte |
March 14, 2002: St. Louis, Mo.
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7. Temple |
10. Tennessee |
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2. Kansas |
15. BIG SKY/Weber State |
Regional Finals: Madison, Wis.
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Bracket Bits
Teams preceded by their conference name in ALL CAPS are the projected automatic qualifiers from so-called "one bid" leagues.
Please note that Syracuse cannot be placed in the East this year, where it is an institutional host at the Carrier Dome for the regional semifinals and finals. The same goes for Kentucky (South/Rupp Arena), which, in this example, forces UK and Illinois to "swap" regions at the top of the bracket.
Overrated: (opinion of yours truly): Arkansas, Boston College, Cincinnati, Georgetown, Missouri, Stanford, Temple, Western Kentucky.
Underrated: (same criteria): Arizona, Connecticut, Iowa, Georgia State, Miami, North Carolina, Southern Cal, Tennessee, Utah, UTEP.
Some observations on application of the new bracketing procedures:
Two Pac-10 teams (in this case UCLA and Southern Cal) can play at the same sub-regional site in Sacramento, provided they are on opposite sides of the West bracket.
The South/Midwest flip-flop of Kentucky and Illinois, necessitated by UK hosting the South regionals, does not affect the first/second round placement of those two schools. Each is sent to the closest possible sub-regional.
Just imagine Duke and Maryland at the same (Washington, D.C.) sub-regional site. Wow!
Multiple-conference breakdown: Big East (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-10 (5), Conference USA (4), Atlantic 10 (3), Mountain West (2), WAC (2).
Last Four In: South Florida, Colorado, Arkansas, Miami.
Last Four Out: Marshall, North Carolina State, Michigan, Detroit.
Joe Lunardi is the resident "bracketologist" for ESPN.com. He may be
reached at jlunardi@home.com.
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| NIT TEAMS |
Arizona State
Baylor
UC Irvine
Clemson
Creighton
Dayton
Detroit
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Iowa State
Louisville
Marquette
Marshall
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina State
Notre Dame
Oregon State
Purdue
St. John's
San Diego State
Seton Hall
South Carolina
SMU
Tulsa
UAB
UNLV
Vanderbilt
Villanova
West Virginia
(also considered)
Auburn
Bowling Green
LSU
Richmond
TCU
Utah State
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