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Friday, September 14
Updated: September 18, 3:07 PM ET
 
Pacers: If kids take off, playoffs are likely

By Eric Karabell
ESPN.com

The Indiana Pacers have been the best and worst East playoff team the last two seasons, avoiding the in between segment. And if you look at the team, you'll see that the team leader is an aging shooting guard and the future includes three kiddies who didn't go to college. There's not much in between for the roster, and there may not be much between for the playoffs either.
Jermaine O'Neal
Jermaine O'Neal isn't quite Shaq, but he does have a bright future.

So as we continue our 2001 Summer Spotlight Series, here's the deal with the Pacers.

The good: The Pacers didn't change a whole lot from their trip to the NBA Finals to last season. Rik Smits and Larry Bird left, replaced by Jermaine O'Neal and Isiah Thomas. O'Neal matched Smits' production and Thomas is another former player-turned coach, so why did the team drop from 56 wins to 41 so fast?

While it appears Indy hadn't changed much, it really had. Dependable veterans Mark Jackson and Dale Davis were gone, not to be replaced either for their leadership or production. Jalen Rose switched positions and that took a toll. O'Neal matched Smits' scoring and was far better in other stats, but he's not really a center. Austin Croshere took a giant step backward. And high schoolers Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender didn't become the major factors the Pacers expected. And Isiah, he's apparently no Larry. So really, a lot changed.

Rose led the team in scoring again, but his move to the point wasn't smooth. He did a ton of scoring in December, when he averaged 25.4 points per game, but little passing. The team sputtered. When he raised his assist totals each month after, and his scoring went down, the team did better. Rose is the team's star, a point Reggie Miller still needs to realize.

Miller had another fine season, doing the same things he's been doing for a decade, hitting big threes, winning free throw titles and of course -- beating Philly in Game 1 of the playoffs. But his age is showing, more on defense. And his salary -- $25 million for the next two season -- is causing problems.

O'Neal was the biggest surprise, and without him emerging as quickly as he did the Celtics would have celebrated that last playoff berth instead of Indy. Acquired from Portland for Dale Davis in what was supposed to be the final piece for the Blazers, O'Neal did great things rebounding and blocking shots and became Indy's No. 3 scorer to boot. And lest we forget, despite being a five-year vet, he's not yet 23. The best is yet to come. He looked dominant over the summer. Teach him a jumper and he's 17 and 12 and an All-Star. The Pacers lucked out on Portland's impatience.

THE FACTS
  • 2000-01 record: 41-41, 4th in Central, 8th in East
  • Playoffs: lost in first round
  • Team leaders: Rose 20.5 ppg; O'Neal 9.8 rpg, Best 6.1 apg
  • Team stats (NBA rank): Points, 92.6 (19th); Rebs, 42.9 (13th); FG %, .440 (15th)
  • Current rotation: Foster C; O'Neal PF; Rose SF; Miller SG; Best PG; Harrington 6th man
  • Spot in Summer Power Rankings: No. 20
  • The bad: After the Pacers' big three, there were problems. Sam Perkins started 41 games at center. He's 40, more 3-point threat than rebounder and the team released him on Sept. 17. Zan Tabak started 14 times. He's not good, and now he's in Madrid. Croshere didn't take off after his solid performance in the Finals, instead shooting 35 percent through Thanksgiving and costing himself a starting role. The Pacers were thrilled with O'Neal's production, but he was pretty much all alone in the frontcourt. Statistically the team did fine, middle of the pack in scoring and rebounding, but when your No. 2 rebounder is Jeff Foster and your second-leading shotblocker has 50, you know things could be much better. In fairness to Foster, the new starter, he did well on a per-minute basis.

    When Jackson left town for Toronto, the starting point job officially became Rose's, but Travis Best ended up playing much of the time there, nearly 32 minutes a night. Since Best can't play another position, it means essentially that Rose really didn't play point that much, only 16 minutes on average. Of course, the Pacers really didn't have another option at small forward because of Croshere's struggles. Best did what was expected of him, raising his production, but at 5-11 and inconsistent on offense, he's better suited as a backup -- or maybe someone else's starter. The Pacers snagged his potential replacements in Jamaal Tinsley (trade from Hawks) and Jamison Brewer on draft night. There's speculation Best could be traded for frontcourt help, Rose would play more point and a rookie, likely Tinsley, who was a senior coming out of Iowa State and the Big 12 Player of the Year, could get minutes.

    The ugly: Just about every team needs help up front, but the Pacers could really flourish with a 7-footer who has game. Say what you will about Smits, but he looked a lot better in the paint than Perkins, and his presence would permit O'Neal to play power forward. Indy did try to lure Chris Webber out of Sacramento to play with college buddy Rose, but it didn't work. Thomas is going to have to choose from basically the same group as last year.

    Carlos Rogers, an underachiever in Houston who like O'Neal, Foster, Bender, Croshere and Derrick McKey is listed in the 6-10 to 6-11 range, is likely no more the answer than anyone else. Manchild O'Neal is going to have to log many minutes in the middle. We should add that he has added pounds to a frame that had room to add it, so maybe he'll match up better with bigger guys. And really, the East doesn't have that many of them. The Pacers are crossing their fingers that rookie Primoz Brezec and second-year player Bruno Sundov, both 7-footers, can help. As for the Dennis Rodman rumors, the backlash would be so great, there's no way Indy tries that route.

    The other potential problem here could be with Thomas. While Bird is beloved in Indianapolis and pretty much everywhere else, Thomas isn't going to get a free ride. He needs to win. There were times in his rookie season as a coach that he appeared to lose the team. Practice habits were questioned, and the bottom line all year was that the defending best team in the East was under .500 virtually all season and teasing its fans that it would suddenly turn things on. It never happened. Another season of underachieving might not be tolerated.

    The future: The Pacers are a bit caught in the middle in the East. In terms of talent this group did underachieve last season. We're not saying Bird would have led the Pacers to 50 wins, but there's more talent here than there was in Boston, and the Pacers didn't shake the Celtics until the final week of the regular season. O'Neal is a budding star, and nobody's giving up on Bender or Harrington. While Bender barely played, Harrington was given his big chance in March and averaged 11.4 points and 7.7 rebounds. He doesn't get to the line and tried only seven 3-pointers all year, so obviously there's work to be done.

    But there's certainly plenty to build, with Miller being the only key part who isn't young. If someone, be it Harrington, Croshere or Foster can help out up front, and Rose's role becomes more defined, the Pacers are capable of somewhere in between 56 and 41 wins, that's for sure. And being in between in this case wouldn't be so bad.

    So we asked you this question about the Pacers: What's the ceiling for the Pacers this year, based on their personnel?

    Check the file to the right for selected responses.

    Eric Karabell is ESPN.com's NBA editor.






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