The San Antonio Spurs will never allow themselves to bank on it totally, to tell folks it's a 100-percent lock that their franchise guy won't leave, because this is Tim Duncan. He never misses those shots that smooch the window and he never tells you what he's really thinking.

"If he wasn't a basketball player, Tim could have been one of the best poker players in history," former teammate Sean Elliott said. "He always has that poker face. He doesn't tip his hand."

	Tim Duncan will be taking the money but he probably won't be running from San Antonio.

No Tim doesn't, and certainly not 82 games (plus playoffs) in advance. This is months too soon to expect firm declarations from Duncan or his employers about their contract plans next summer.

When the time arrives, though, it'll be tough for even the stony Duncan to bluff. If not quite in perfect-score territory, the chances of this marriage seeing several more anniversaries are well into the 90-percent range.

There isn't a team on the NBA map that has more cause for down-the-road optimism than the Spurs. They have a new arena. They have a practice facility that's even snazzier, potentially the league's best. They also have promising kids in an all-world backcourt (Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili) and maybe the best-managed salary cap in any sport.

For who else has the wherewithal and cred to re-sign a Tim Duncan at $20 million more than anyone else can pay ... while at the same time scaring the ghosts right out of the swamps in New Jersey with the threat of snagging Jason Kidd, too?

Right.

Those sweet kisses off the glass ain't going anywhere.

The Spurs wouldn't dare say so publicly, at the risk of jinxing things, but Duncan doesn't have a hard choice this time. There is no Orlando like last time, in the summer of 2000, to wine him and dine him and plant the thought that leaving Alamo Country might actually be best.

Which means that the Spurs, who have enough to fret about trying to improve on that 1-8 playoff record against the Lakers the last two springs, won't be having Orlando nightmares all season. Like last time.

"I'd be surprised if he left," said Elliott, now an analyst for ESPN. "Real surprised."

Said Avery Johnson, another former Duncan teammate: "Nothing is supposed to surprise you in the NBA, but I would definitely be shocked if Tim left."

Teams around the league obviously feel the same, judging by recent spending patterns in Orlando and Dallas. The Magic and Mavericks are among the clubs that used to speak privately of saving their cap pennies for a run at Duncan in the free-agent bonanza offseason of 2003. Now, neither will have the cap room needed just to get Duncan's agent, Lon Babby, to take their call. The Magic and Mavericks scrapped those rainy-day plans long ago, realizing there would be no legitimate shot in '03 at luring TD away.

Magic coach Doc Rivers told me once that he truly believes Duncan would have defected to Florida had he been healthy enough to participate in the 2000 playoffs. Duncan sat out with a bad knee and San Antonio was ousted in the first round by Phoenix. Doc's theory is that Duncan would have realized, by playing and eventually losing his first title defense, how hopeless it is out West trying to get past Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.

A few years removed from the Orlando freeway billboards begging him to sign, and Tiger Woods' Isleworth Chamber of Commerce speech, it's difficult to envision Duncan making so much as a visit to another city. The teams forecast to have the requisite cap space to make a Duncan run are Denver, Utah and the Clippers. And Miami. The Heat is the only team on the list with a hope, given that it's in the East (away from Shaquille O'Neal) ... and in friendly Florida ... and still has Pat Riley still in charge.

	“	Nothing is supposed to surprise you in the NBA, but I would definitely be shocked if Tim left. ”
		— Avery Johnson

Thing is, Duncan already loves his underrated coach, Gregg Popovich, who has won a championship and helped keep Duncan anchored alongside a certain Admiral David Robinson. Plus Duncan has a new house built in the area and a growing voice in the Spurs' personnel plottings. Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford give Duncan a say on everything, at least to register his opinion.

Factor in how much Duncan loathes change and attention, and how he can duck both by staying in one of the league's tiniest markets, and you're up in the high 90s. Then there's the clincher.

The other clincher, besides the extra $20 mil that will take Duncan's next contract from the Spurs over $100 mil.

The talent.

Painful as their last two playoff encounters with the Lakers were -- first the sweep, then a tortuous five games in which they repeatedly gagged in the fourth quarter -- the Spurs keep upgrading. They got deeper in the offseason by signing Ginobili, the rim-attacking shooting guard they need to mix things up, and by trading for a point guard (Speedy Claxton) from the same tempo class as Parker. The Spurs also re-signed two other prominent Babby clients (which never hurts) at figures those clients couldn't have gotten elsewhere: Malik Rose (seven years, $42 million) and Bruce Bowen (three years, $11 million).

So …

It's an elite team that will only become more elitist when Duncan leads the recruiting charge for his pal JKidd. They'll either squire Kidd away from New Jersey and then have Parker as (very) valuable trade bait, or they'll use the cash to go after Michael Olowokandi. With Kandi -- who, unlike Duncan, does plan to give strong consideration to Denver and Miami -- TD would be able to stay at power forward as he prefers.

In the interim, the Spurs don't have to spend this season with Duncan's future clouding the fresh air at SBC Center. There wasn't much chance to celebrate 1999's short-season championship with all the Duncan-to-Orlando questions that followed.

"Tim didn't make it a distraction, but it was something a lot of people thought about," Elliott said. "We talked about it quietly behind his back."

Media gnats will undoubtedly be asking Duncan again this season, but figure those queries to be far less frequent than the ones Kidd gets. Not only do we already know Poker Face won't tell, we already know the answer deep down.

Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. E-mail him at marc.stein@espn3.com.