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Friday, October 25
 
Kings, Mavs, Spurs only threat to L.A.'s throne

By Mitch Lawrence
Special to ESPN.com

Go to any NBA city outside Los Angeles and the chant is always the same: Beat L-A!

But can anyone, in 2002-03?

Shaquille O'Neal
Stop Shaquille O'Neal and you stop the Lakers. Good luck.
We're not exactly revealing a secret, but probably not. Don't take our word for it. Listen to Isiah Thomas, the Pacers' coach who knows something about winning titles and playing against dynasties.

"It all depends on Shaq," he said. "He's the only guy that I've seen in the time since I've been in the league that no one has a matchup for. He's the most dominant and best player in the NBA right now. It's a tall order to beat them because you can't do it with one player. You have to have a team. I don't see a person in the West, yet, who can match up with Shaq, or a team that has come up with some kind of defense to stop him."

So if there's nobody out West, you already can forget the JVs over in the East. We haven't had a repeat winner in the East since Michael Jordan's Bulls in 1998. So there's no guarantee that the revamped Nets will even get that far for another crack at L.A. But even with Dikembe Mutombo, who has battled Shaq in a Finals before, the Nets have less of a chance of beating L.A. than the best teams out West.

"The one variable here," said Suns president Bryan Colangelo, "is what kind of condition Shaq is in when he returns (from offseason surgery on his right big toe). And how long it takes him to get into true form. Will he be carrying extra weight that leads to an abdominal strain which he's had a problem with in the past?"

That's something to watch for, since any injury to O'Neal can tilt the entire NBA playing field. But as long as Shaq is healthy in May and June, it seems likely that the Lakers will win their fourth straight title, and to prolong what Thomas aptly calls their "stranglehold on the NBA." So is there anyone out there who can loosen the Lakers' championship grip?

Let's start with the Kings.

Mike Bibby
Mike Bibby's breakout performance drove the Lakers crazy in the West finals.
Why the Kings can
Didn't they actually beat L.A. last spring, anyway? They think so. They think they were robbed in Game 6 by the officials before their untimely overtime collapse in Arco Arena in Game 7. The important thing is, they've had some success against L.A. in the postseason. That's practically mandatory when trying to knock off a dynasty.

"The stamina, toughness and smartness you need to beat a team like the Lakers -- you have to learn how to beat them and the only way to learn that is to compete against them in a playoff or championship situation," said Thomas, who tangled with the mighty Celtics of the 80s and later the Jordan-led Bulls. "Sacramento has put themselves in position to compete with the Lakers and go up against that wall. But it's going to be a tall task."

The Kings certainly have the ingredients to beat L.A., starting with Mike Bibby, who had his coming out party in the playoffs last season, and nearly led the Kings past L.A. Once Bibby returns from his broken foot, he'll still be a tough cover for the Lakers' guards. Add in Chris Webber, Peja Stojakovic, Hedo Turkoglu, Doug Christie, Vlade Divac, and the Kings have the necessary offensive firepower to do the job. Webber, plagued by ankle problems all last season, feels he hasn't been in better physical condition in years. And, they've also added ex-Raptor Keon Clark, giving them more length and quickness and a big-time shot-blocker for their front line. They're deep and talented.

Why the Kings can't
Like everyone else, they still don't have an answer for Shaq. Not the Shaq who's limited by toe problems. But the one who appears every May and June and dominates.

"Sacramento has tried to make great strides to come up with the player that can deal with Shaq and L.A.," New Orleans coach Paul Silas said. "But barring injuries, I can't relly see anyone dethroning them in the West to get to the championship. As of right now, as long as Shaq is healthy, I really can't see anybody challenging them. They'll just find a way to beat you. The second part of that, of course, is Kobe."

Don't forget that Kobe Bryant spent most of the conference finals against Sacramento puking his guts out. The Kings can't depend on the bad-cheeseburger defense every year. Then, there are questions about how they will bounce back from that devastating defeat in Game 7 of the West finals. Shaq already has gone on record saying the Kings will never have what it takes to beat L.A. That could be a mind game, but it also wouldn't be unusual. Since the Lakers started holding championship rallies in L.A., the Blazers and Spurs have also been reduced to playoff basketcases whenever they meet the purple and gold. But there could be a residual effect of such a damaging loss to end their season.

"The Kings can't automatically think they're going to get back to the conference finals," Phoenix's Penny Hardaway said. "They have to play with the same hunger, which can be hard to do. Nothing's promised in the NBA. I know that very well. I know that from going to the Finals one time (1995), and I haven't been back since. The Kings have to play this season like it's last season. They've got to finish ahead of the Lakers again to get the home-court edge."

What about The Mavericks? Mark Cuban and Don Nelson have been wheeling and dealing and loading up for a playoff series against L.A. The only trouble is, the Mavericks haven't been able to figure out the Spurs or Kings in the postseason so far. Can this season be any different?

Michael Finley
The Mavs have scorers like Michael Finley to force L.A. to play catchup.
Why the Mavericks can
They've got more firepower than anybody. They can outscore the Lakers, with Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley, Steve Nash, Nick Van Exel and Raef LaFrentz. They have the big men who can take Shaq away from the basket. That's an essential factor when playing L.A. You've got to have big men who can shoot from the perimeter, since Shaq doesn't like to get out of his defensive comfort zone.

"If you match up with a guy that's just an inside player against them, Shaq is going to win any matchup against most centers in the league, and really every center in the league," Rockets head coach Rudy Tomjanovich said. "If you can make him play on the outside, he does have to come out. What he does when he's playing a post-up guy is that he takes everything else away from your drivers and other guys. You have to make him come out and defend out on the floor."

Why the Mavericks can't
In a word, defense.

The Mavs were only one of two teams to allow at least 100 points per game in the regular season, ranking next-to-last to the Warriors at 101 per game. And their defense only got worse in the playoffs, culminating with the Kings running up 108, 102, 125, 115 and 114 points in their second-round victory over the Mavs.

If they can't shut down Memphis in a regular-season game, what are they going to do against Shaq and Kobe in the playoffs? Last spring, Dallas allowed 108 points per game in eight playoff outings on 46 percent shooting. Only once did an opponent score less than 100.

Like the Kings, who have steadily improved their defense under Rick Adelman, the Mavs are trying to get their defense to a point where they can become a threat to L.A. But that involves getting offensive-minded players to buy into defense concepts. That's never easy.

"Nellie says the difference is that the Kings have made that commitment to defense and we haven't," said ex-Spur Avery Johnson, now playing in Dallas for Don Nelson. "And if we want to get to that next level, we've got to commit to sell out defensively. If we do that, a playoff series won't end 4-1 like it did last season against the Kings or the Lakers or the Spurs."

Now, we come to the last of the West's Big Four, San Antonio.

Kobe Bryant
Next time, the Spurs will be conscious of boxing out Kobe Bryant.
Why the Spurs can
They've won a title, albeit before Phil Jackson started introducing the Lakers to championship rings. They have Tim Duncan, the reigning MVP. They can defend the Lakers. They've added quick, new perimeter players in Speedy Claxton and Manu Ginobili who can get their own shots, instead of having to rely on an array of statuesque standstill shooters on the perimeter.

"It's not like they're beating people by 20 in all of these games in the playoffs," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said of the Lakers. "But they do a great job of finishing games and finishing quarters and your team has to be mature enough and execute well enough to play that game and to not make mistakes in those situations."

True enough, the Spurs played the Lakers close in their second-round series last spring. They lost by only six points, 10, two and six. But it was horrid late-game execution of its halfcourt offense that doomed San Antonio. Perhaps the addition of a passing-game, motion offense will help solve that. Claxton and Ginobili can create their own shots, putting more pressure on the defense -- and taking the pressure off the predictable halfcourt sets.

Why the Spurs can't
Duncan is almost too sound fundamentally. Several Lakers say they knew where and when he was going to pass out of double teams, making their rotations easier. The Spurs' role players haven't had success against this Lakers team. Mentally, they might be fighting the same losing battle we used to see when the Knicks could never get by the Bulls in the 90s.

But even if Duncan does manage to score down the stretch against L.A., and role players such as Tony Parker step up, the Spurs have to prove they can stop Kobe Bryant. Every time Bryant is compared to Michael Jordan, it's usually been after demolishing the Spurs in the spring.

Last spring, Bryant was as unstoppable as ever against the Spurs, starring in the fourth quarter of Game 3 and less than 48 hours later hitting the game-winning basket to win in San Antonio in Game 4. He went for 26 points a game against Bruce Bowen, the Spurs' defensive specialist. Bryant isn't going anywhere, either.

"It's interesting, but a lot of people would relax after winning three titles," the Suns' Colangelo said. "Winning drives Kobe. His ability to continue to dedicate himself to the game, the way he has, is obviously a very special quality. Besides his awesome talent, that's something else you have to factor in when talking about the Lakers. So on paper, Sacramento did get better. On paper, Dallas and San Antonio could be tougher. But whether these teams can beat the Lakers in a series, I can't say right now."

Maybe not in eight months, either, when they're handing out the championship trophy.

Mitch Lawrence, who covers the NBA for the New York Daily News, writes a regular NBA column for ESPN.com.





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