Wednesday, May 15
Updated: May 17, 1:35 PM ET
 
Dr. Jack's Breakdown: Lakers vs. Kings

The Matchup: No. 3 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 1 Sacramento

Hall of Fame coach Dr. Jack Ramsay provides analysis for ESPN on SportsCenter and NBA Today. Here he breaks down the playoffs for ESPN.com. Also a former color analyst for the Heat, Ramsay's impressive résumé includes making the playoffs in 16 of his 20 seasons as coach and winning an NBA title with Portland in 1977.

Throughout the 2002 playoffs, Dr. Jack will break down each series from the backcourts to intangibles. Look for his analysis from the first round all the way through to the NBA Finals.

BACKCOURT EDGE
This is probably the best overall backcourt matchup in the NBA.
Point guard: Mike Bibby has elevated his game in the playoffs. He's quick and skilled at penetrating off high screen-and-rolls. Bibby's play will be critical for the Kings in this series. Bibby beat Steve Nash off the dribble consistently against the Mavs. But that won't be as easy against the Lakers' Derek Fisher. Fisher is a good defender (as is his backup, Lindsey Hunter). I give the edge to the Kings at the point.
Shooting guard: Nobody can stop Kobe Bryant. The Spurs' Bruce Bowen gave it his best shot but couldn't stop him. Doug Christie is tough for the Kings, but he's no match for Kobe. Bryant is also a good defender, while Christie doesn't factor much into Sacramento's offense. So overall, the Lakers have the edge in the backcourt.

FRONTCOURT EDGE
Power forward: Lakers coach Phil Jackson will likely start Robert Horry over Samaki Walker. Horry is a good perimeter defender, and Chris Webber likes to work on the perimeter, where he's an excellent scorer and passer for the Kings. But Webber will have better opportunities to score against the Lakers inside. Horry has hit some huge postseason shots in his career -- for example, his 3-pointer finished off the Blazers in the first round this year. But the edge at power forward still goes to the Kings.
Small forward: Peja Stojakovic will miss at least the first two games for the Kings with an ankle injury, leaving backup Hedo Turkoglu to start. Stojakovic will likely have limited mobility, so expect Lakers forward Rick Fox to be right in his face the entire series. Fox displays toughness and determination as a defender. Even though Stojakovic averaged 21.2 points this season and Fox less than half that (7.9 ppg), I give only a slight edge to the Kings because of Fox's defense.
Center: Shaquille O'Neal is by far the most dominant big man in the league. His impact on a game and a series speaks for itself. I expect the Kings to position Vlade Divac (or whomever Shaq guards) at the high post to set screens and get Shaq away from basket, thus opening up the lane for potential penetration. Divac is a clever low-post player. He's not overpowering, but he has good footwork. He'll scoop it underneath one time and go with a high hook the next. He can also drive well and could get Shaq in foul trouble.

BENCH EDGE
Kings: Coach Rick Adelman will use three reserves primarily: Bobby Jackson, Turkoglu and Scot Pollard. Pollard wasn't used much against Dallas because of the Mavs' smaller lineup. Against the Lakers, size and rebounding will be essential, so Pollard will get big minutes. Turkoglu penetrates better than Stojakovic and is a better defender, but he isn't as accurate a shooter. Jackson was sensational against the Mavs. This is a good bench.
Lakers: Coach Phil Jackson will use more reserves: Walker at power forward, Devean George at small forward, Hunter at point guard and Brian Shaw at the two-guard. These aren't blockbuster performers, but they're good team players who know their roles. The Kings get the slight edge.

INTANGIBLES EDGE
Kings: Sacramento is on a psychological high. The Kings' two semifinal wins at Dallas were remarkable. Their confidence couldn't be higher, and they play as a team. They're an unselfish and tight-knit group. Rick Adelman is a low-key coach, which is good for this club. Also, the Kings have the home-court advantage, which means the first two games will be at Arco -- the loudest venue in the league, with the most boisterous fan support.
Lakers: The Lakers are tough, resilient and battle-tested. Their attitude is, "We're the champs, and you've got to beat us." The Lakers don't think they can lose, especially after their pivotal Game 4 win over the Spurs, when they overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit and held the Spurs without a field goal in the last five-plus minutes. The Lakers' D is so tough. Plus, Kobe is playing like Michael Jordan in his prime. I give a minuscule edge to the Lakers, because they've done it before -- that is, they've won the Western Conference finals the past two years.

PREDICTION
Lakers in six. Los Angeles won the season series 3-1, with the Kings winning one of the two games in Sacramento. Webber played in only one game against L.A. (a one-point Kings' loss in March at Arco). But with or without Webber, I expect the Shaq-Kobe juggernaut to roll on to the NBA Finals.

Series Page


 ALSO SEE

Howard-Cooper: Kings' Bibby proves a point

Bembry: Christie keeps Kings' defense together

Hughes: L.A. glitz vs. Sacramento grits

Dr. Jack's Prescription: Kings

Wiley: The seven voyages of Kobe

Lakers relish role of the underdog

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