|
Tuesday, April 30
Updated:
May 4, 12:13 AM ET
Dr. Jack's Breakdown: Mavericks vs. Kings
The Matchup: No. 4 Dallas vs. No. 1 Kings
Hall of Fame coach Dr. Jack Ramsay provides analysis for ESPN on SportsCenter and NBA Today. Here he breaks down the playoffs for ESPN.com. Also a former color analyst for the Heat, Ramsay's impressive résumé includes making the playoffs in 16 of his 20 seasons as coach and winning an NBA title with Portland in 1977.
Throughout the 2002 playoffs, Dr. Jack will break down each series from the backcourts to intangibles. Look for his analysis from the first round all the way through to the NBA Finals.
|
BACKCOURT
|
EDGE
|
|
This is a terrific matchup with the Kings' Mike Bibby and Doug Christie going against the Mavs' Steve Nash and Michael Finley. All four are very competitive, highly skilled players. But I would give a slight edge to Dallas. Nash and Finley are so explosive and can shoot from anywhere. Nash is underrated for his ability to not only get his own shot, but also to set up his teammates and play pesky defense. He looks like a player someone can blow by, but that's not the case. Finley can shoot from long distance, put the ball on the floor from the wing and drive to the basket, post up an opponent and play tough defense. Although Bibby and Christie are solid players, Nash and Finley offer more firepower and surprise people with their defensive ability.
|
|
|
FRONTCOURT
|
EDGE
|
|
The big forward spot features a classic matchup between Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Webber. I don't think Webber can contain Nowitzki, a versatile player with an aggressive offensive game. It's impossible to cover him. He can stop in transition and hit the 3-point shot. He can drive to the basket as well as any forward in the league and finish with either hand. He has a little bit of a post-up game. Plus, he has been a big rebounder for the Mavs. Webber is more of a high-post player. He can shoot the medium-range jumper but not the 3. He can also put the ball on the floor and has a basket-area jump hook in addition to being a solid rebounder. I would give Nowitzki a small edge. At the small forward spot, the Kings have a big advantage with Peja Stojakovic. I expect Dallas coach Don Nelson to play Eduardo Najera on Stojakovic because Najera is a strong defensive player. If Stojakovic gets shooting room off screens, he will have a big game as he did in Game 4 against Utah. Najera is a valuable, hard-working player, although he is not a scorer. In the middle, Vlade Divac and Raef LaFrentz are two different types of players. LaFrentz has more of a perimter game. He can shoot the three and is good on screen and rolls. While not a great post defender, LaFrentz is an adept shot blocker who also has a tendency to get into foul trouble. Divac is more of a low-post, old-school player. While he is not a great scorer, Divac can pass and play good enough defense. Divac gets the edge, but the Kings must work out a scheme to defend the high screen-and-rolls involving LaFrentz. The Mavs are good at getting 3-point attempts off the screen and roll, something Adelman must address with his defense.
|
|
|
BENCH
|
EDGE
|
|
Sacramento has a solid bench with Scot Pollard, Bobby Jackson and Hedo Turkoglu. Jackson is a high-energy player who plays aggressive defense, gets the team into an uptempo game, shoots the 3-pointer, drives to the basket and rebounds on the offensive end surprisingly well. Turkoglu is a versatile player who can play almost any position and plays tough defense. Pollard, meanwhile, is a banger. Dallas will come off the bench with Nick Van Exel, who will pose an excellent challenge for Jackson. The Mavericks will also use Adrian Griffin, Wang ZhiZhi, Greg Buckner (if he's healthy) and Shawn Bradley. While he is somewhat erratic as a shooter, Van Exel is very good with the ball, makes few mistakes and can put points on the board. Even though Adelman's three key bench players give the Kings an edge in depth, they have no one like Van Exel, who is a big factor for Dallas.
|
|
|
INTANGIBLES
|
EDGE
|
|
Dallas enters the series with great confidence after sweeping Minnesota in the first round. The Mavericks' game appears to be on the rise. They also won three out of four against the Kings during the regular season, and two of the wins came in Sacramento. The Kings' homecourt advantage may not amount to much because the Mavericks are a good road team. Dallas, though, may have to guard against complacency and feeling too good about itself. At the same time, Sacramento already had to prove itself more in a tough series against Utah. After they survived that close, four-game battle, the Kings know they have to play their best game in order to avoid defeat. Looking at the two head coaches, Nelson has had a breakout season with the Mavericks, while the low-key Adelman has gotten his players ready to play every night.
|
EVEN
|
|
PREDICTION
|
|
Mavs in six. It should be a terrific, entertaining series. The difference will be Dallas' ability to keep the game at a high tempo, continue its high-percentage shooting and play solid defense. There were games during the season when the Mavs' defense was porous. Nelson flirted with various zone defenses, to poor effect. But in games the Mavs had to win, Nelson stuck with the man-to-man and emerged with a positive result. The Kings will shoot Dallas down if Nelson tries to play a zone. Sacramento must find a defensive answer for the Mavs' four-pointed offense, with Van Exel off the bench, Nowitzki, Finley and Nash. Neither team is noted for its rebounding, so a rebounding edge could put either team over the top.
|
|
|
|
| |