Thursday, April 18
Updated: April 18, 2:06 PM ET
 
Why Kings do (and don't) have title shot

By Scott Howard-Cooper
Special to ESPN.com

And so, we're back to where everything started, after 6½ months of regular season, a million plot twists and 82 games per team. Except the Milwaukee Bucks, who had 42,937 mind games (and that's just an early count since not all precincts have reported).

Back to California.

Back to considering the possibility of a wild, wild West showdown between the team with the dominating inside presence and the great wing player against the team that has been resilient through injuries and so precise with unselfish precision on offense. Destinies at 94 paces.

Back to talking about the potential back-to-back-to-back.

Chris Webber
Chris Webber's last-second shot fell short against L.A. in a 97-96 loss in March.
The two best bets for the championship, with all due respect to Texans, are the Lakers and Kings, just as has been the case since Opening Night. Shaquille O'Neal had a bad toe, Chris Webber had a bad ankle, and everyone else around the league had a chance to put these guys away but never did.

Both can be beat -- Sacramento-Dallas in the second round would be a great series. It's just that not only do the Lakers have the best chance of anyone to knock off the Kings, since the Lakers hold that card against everyone, but the Kings have the best shot at dethroning the Lakers. And it's a realistic shot at that.

Will it happen? This is not the time for predictions. There is too much ground to cover before they play, if they play. Sacramento could lose to Dallas. Los Angeles could break three ribs from laughing so much upon hearing that the Kings displayed a banner for a division championship before the final home game. After all, at the Staples Center, those are used for cocktail napkins.

But could it happen? Yes.

The Kings can beat the Lakers. The focus and energy and ability to play with a sense of urgency -- the biggest missing ingredient for Sacramento since the start of last season and a major cause of the four-game sweep by L.A. in the 2001 conference semifinals -- has been captured. Webber is not only healthy, but playing better in the past two months than at any time in the previous two years.

This is not about getting more people on the bandwagon. It's about getting credibility.

This is about practicality. As in, three reasons Sacramento can follow the best regular season in the league with the best postseason and ... Beat L.A.! Beat L.A.!

Why the Kings can beat L.A.

  • 1. No offense is so fifth gear as the playoffs arrive.

    Things are going so good in that regard that the leather lungs at Arco Arena haven't even charged the box office to demand a refund when it turned out they paid good money to see a basketball game and instead were sitting in on a clinic.

    "I think they are the most explosive team," Minnesota coach Flip Saunders said after the Timberwolves got caught under the Kings' wheels on April 9. "Dallas is explosive, but they are explosive because they come from the inside and the outside. Right now, there is a reason they (the Kings) have the best record in the league. They are maybe the most unselfish team in the league as far as passing the ball and trusting each other."

  • 2. They trust each other.

    Maybe you already heard that somewhere, but it's worth repeating because emotion is everything with the Kings. If they have the intensity -- something that had been lacking earlier this season, even as they obviously had the talent -- it is a major factor. That this is a very close locker room is part of that, and not because it just means the chance for warm fuzzies.

    Other rosters might be as close, and that's hard to believe, but no group is tighter. While it remains to be seen if they still lack the S.O.B. who will provide the killer instinct when the Lakers get right in their faces, the resiliency has never been in question. In Sacramento, chemistry is elementary.

    "Very hard to find," said Bobby Jackson, the backup guard and Sixth Man of the Year candidate who had previously been in Minnesota and Denver. "But it's amazing. There's no selfishness at all on this team. If anything, guys are almost too generous, making the extra pass when they could take an open shot. But they do it so well that no one ever has to say anything about it. I think that comes from having some guys who have been in the league a while."

  • 3. They have a rough surface for the first time.

    The biggest benefit to finishing with the best record in the league is the one that has gone laregly unnoticed because most people jump to the home court-advantage angle. In reality, the Kings had a great edge at Arco last season and then lost three of four when it mattered most, once to the Suns in the first round and twice to the Lakers in the West semifinals. Sacramento is a better team now, but that doesn't change the reality that anyone who is relying largely on the home court as a reason to pick Sacramento has oversold it. L.A. can win in Sac. End of story.

    Instead, the biggest benefit to finishing No. 1 in the regular season is that the Kings had people chasing them pretty much the entire second half and they answered the challenge. Didn't stage a late charge, which would have been impressive. Didn't take advantage of another team stumbling, which would have been fortunate. They gained the confidence that comes with playing with a target on their backs for the first time and proved they could handle the heat.

    And the reality is also that the Lakers are still the champions until someone knocks them off, and there are just as many reasons why that won't happen.

  • 1. Shaquille O'Neal.

  • 2. Kobe Bryant.

  • 3. Phil Jackson and a supporting cast that is used to coming up big.

    That was too easy.

    In the interest of perhaps shedding new light, here are three more reasons that maybe weren't so obvious:

    Why the Kings can't beat L.A.

  • 1. All that hype about the Kings' offense.

    The Lakers are right behind them in offensive efficiency, not just in scoring because of the unstoppable inside presence but in shooting. They're also stride for stride in assist-to-turnover ratio. That's the burden of being L.A. Being so good for so long gets you taken for granted or makes it look like there have been stumbles because of a second-place division finish, but the Lakers' numbers on offense are likewise commendable and are better on defense.

  • 2. The Kings will regret not grabbing a third big man at some stage.

    They will only regret it while anticipating the potential of this one series. Shaq will get fouled a lot and Vlade Divac will be the first in a line of candidates to get in trouble. Scot Pollard is a very good backup, but that would also deny Sacramento its backup power forward. Besides, Pollard gets two personals between the time he gets off the bench and reaches the scorer's table to check in.

    The big bodies behind Divac and Pollard? Lawrence Funderburke is 6-foot-9 and 230 pounds, and Chucky Brown is 6-8, 220.

  • 3. The Lakers can draw from negative energy much better than the Kings.

    L.A. would come to Arco Arena and see it as part of the mission to turn the cowbells to mute. Part of the fun in beating Sacramento, if it happened, would be to dismiss a team that thought it had reached the Lakers' level, only to be told otherwise. The Kings are great at laughing together, just not much for the blood-thirsty finishing blow of laughing in an opponent's face.

    If it happened.

    If the chance even comes in the first place.

    If they play at all.

    Scott Howard-Cooper, who covers the NBA for the Sacramento Bee, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.

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