Tuesday, April 30
Updated: April 30, 7:56 PM ET
 
Can Spurs overcome Duncan's absence?

By Jerry Bembry
ESPN The Magazine

SEATTLE -- Following Saturday's win that gave the San Antoino Spurs a 2-1 lead in their opening-round series against the Seattle Sonics even without the injured David Robinson, Tim Duncan spoke of his team's focus to end the series in four games.

"We got David a little extra rest," Duncan said. "Now we want to end this as soon as possible."

Tim Duncan
Tim Duncan leaves a gaping hole in the middle of the Spurs' offense.
Yet with Duncan out for Wednesday's Game 4 in Seattle after his father, William, passed away on Monday, talk of an anticipated second-round meeting with the Lakers has shifted to whether the second-seeded Spurs can advance to the second round at all. After practice in San Antonio on Tuesday, the Spurs flew north without Duncan, who was in North Carolina with his family.

Duncan has been the focus of attention this entire series: He's averaging 26.7 points and 11.7 rebounds while commanding double teams during the first three games.

With Duncan and Robinson in the lineup, the Spurs have one of the most formidable front lines in the NBA. With Duncan and Robinson out, Game 4 is in major doubt, and having Duncan for a possible Game 5 brings concerns to the Spurs on whether he'll be able to focus enough to help his team advance.

"We'll play some combinations you haven't seen too much," said Spurs coach Greg Popovich, who might also be without forward Danny Ferry (who's doubtful with a sprained right wrist). "We'll do everything in our power to perform well. We'll do what we have to do."

What the Spurs have to do is get a huge game from Malik Rose whom, at 6-foot-5 (he's generously listed at 6-7) is the team's best post-up threat outside of Duncan. The problem: Rose has been able to average 12.3 points and 7.0 rebounds this series mainly because defenders often leave him to help out defending Duncan. Minus Duncan in the lineup, Rose will find it much more difficult to maneuver.

Part of the new combinations Popovich will use include Mark Bryant, a 6-9 forward playing with his seventh team in 14 NBA seasons, and 6-11 center Cherokee Parks, a 1995 first-round pick who has never averaged more than 7.1 points in seven seasons.

Playing the Percentages
The Spurs will be without Tim Duncan in Game 4 and that means they will be without a huge part of their offense. Duncan scored 26.3 percent of his teams points this season, the second highest total in the league behind Paul Pierce and just ahead of Allen Iverson. Duncan is averaging 26.7 points per game this postseason.
  Pct.
P. Pierce BOS 27.1
T. Duncan SA 26.3*
A. Iverson PHI 25.2
K. Bryant LAL 24.3
T. McGrady ORL 23.6
*26.7 PPG in playoffs

The composite of the two during this series: 15.5 minutes per game, 2.3 points per game and 2.25 rebounds per game. Not exactly numbers that scare the Sonics. Parks played in only 42 games this season (one start), and Bryant played in 30 games (three starts).

Not only do the Spurs lose more than 25 percent of their playoff offense with Duncan out, they also lose a first-team, All-NBA defender whose 5.33 blocks a game this postseason is more than double the average of any other playoff participant.

Look for the Sonics, with Duncan out, to pound the ball into the post to 6-11 power forward Vin Baker and 7-1 backup center Jerome James. Baker had success scoring in the first two games of the series but had just 10 points and one rebound in 31 minutes on Saturday. James, who has improved his game tremendously in his two seasons in the league, is big enough at 272 pounds to establish any low-post positioning he wants.

Easier shot opportunities should help the Sonics improve on their 36.0 percent shooting in the Game 3 loss. That Duncan won't be back as a help defender will also allow Gary Payton, Desmond Mason and Brent Barry to be more aggressive in attacking the basket.

Do the Spurs have a shot? Sure, they have a shot -- but it's even smaller than slim. The Spurs, minus Duncan, can be equated to stripping Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant from the Lakers' lineup. No disrespect to Tony Parker and Steve Smith, but it's an average team without Duncan.

The Spurs can only hope that, in the likelihood of a Game 5, Duncan might be able to return and play through his emotions. If he can, it'll give NBA fans one of the most anticipated conference semifinal matchups in the Spurs against the Lakers. It might also give Duncan an outlet during his most difficult time.

Jerry Bembry is the NBA general editor for ESPN The Magazine.

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