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Friday, June 22
Potential stars make draft unprecedented
By Frank Hughes
Special to ESPN.com
We are entering the most uncertain, unpredictable and, in a way,
unprecedented draft in NBA history.
|  | | It took some time before Seattle's Rashard Lewis became a noteworthy player. |
When league commissioner David Stern approaches the podium Wednesday
night, not only does nobody know whose name he is going to call for the top
pick, but nobody seems to know who he is going to shout out in the seven picks
thereafter.
Oh sure, there is a general idea of who the top eight players will be -- Shane Battier, Eddie Griffin, Rodney White, Eddy Curry,
Tyson Chandler, Kwame Brown, Jason Richardson and DeSagana Diop -- but what
order they go in is anybody's guess.
The primary reason for this is because there are an unprecedented four high
school seniors in that bunch, and nobody seems to know which 18-year-old will
be the next Kevin Garnett or Kobe Bryant.
Former Seattle SuperSonics coach Paul Westphal used to tell the story of how
Dan Majerle ripped through the Portsmouth camp, then was clearly one of the
best players in the Phoenix camp, and very likely could have been one of the
top picks in the draft.
But because of public perception, teams decided against taking a 6-6 white
guy from Central Michigan, opting to select instead players like Charles
Smith, Chris Morris, Tim Perry, Rex Chapman, Willie Anderson, Will Perdue,
Harvey Grant and Jeff Grayer, before Phoenix took the ultra-productive
Majerle with the 14th pick. To those other teams, we say, "Whoops."
Certainly, that story does not lend itself quite as much these days, in part
because Garnett and Bryant have made it less of public relations gamble to
take a player jumping straight from high school to the NBA.
But it still certainly is an organizational gamble -- because you also could
wind up with the next Leon Smith, rather than KG or Kobe.
Still, teams apparently are willing to take the gamble on the potential of
the four high schoolers -- Brown, Curry, Chandler and Diop -- rather than the
safe pick of Battier, the only four-year college guy in the group, because,
as Sonics CEO Wally Walker said, "I think every player is different, but a
team wants to try to draft a potential star."
Left unsaid in that statement is the insinuation that Battier is the player
he is, meaning he does not have a great deal more growth left. He is a safe
pick, to be sure, and might be a nice addition to a team that already is
established, but he is not going to be the home run player that eventually
might take a team to a title run.
Walker knows a thing about potential stars, because he drafted Rashard Lewis,
the high school kid from Houston who now has become the focal point of the
Seattle organization.
Lewis' story is somewhat different, because he was not selected until the
second round -- even though the Houston Rockets told him they were going to
take him 16th, and chose Bryce Drew instead. To the Rockets, we say, "Whoops."
In reality, Lewis fell into the Sonics' lap. He was sitting there at 32, they
had an additional second-round pick, so they figured, "What the hell?"
It turned out nicely for them, because now they are talking about trading
Gary Payton, Vin Baker and Ruben Patterson, and getting younger players to
put around Lewis, a budding star.
But there certainly are considerations, whether you have a top-five pick and
are going to take one of this season's crop of youngsters, or you happen to
have Lewis fall into your lap.
For instance, do you have the veterans on your team to help the kid along? Do
you have to form some sort of infrastructure to support a kid who three
months ago was going to his prom? Do you need to convince his parents to move
to the town for a year, while he gets acclimated?
| |  | |
| Kobe |
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| KG |
The Sonics were fortunate, because Lewis has a great family and a great
outlook, and he has become a model citizen. In a few seasons, people will
talk about Garnett, Kobe and Lewis in the same breath.
But the Utah Jazz were not so lucky, and now they have to deal with the
embarrassing extracurricular activities of DeShawn Stevenson, who allegedly
had sex with a 14-year-old girl in Fresno and is charged with statutory rape.
Another consideration is where, exactly, an organization is.
"A lot depends on where you are in the stage of your franchise," Walker said.
"Because Rashard, we figured he was going to be a three- or four-year
project."
So for fans of the Washington Wizards, if they take Kwame Brown with the
first pick -- assuming the Wizards keep the first pick -- don't expect Brown
to come right in and be able to contribute.
Maybe that is the perfect pick, if Michael Jordan comes back, and Charles
Barkley and Patrick Ewing come aboard. No pressure on Brown.
He can learn from some quality veterans -- though I don't know exactly how
much learning you want a high school kid to get from Barkley. He can develop,
playing against the best every day, players who know every trick there is. The other end of that is a team that is already established can take a flyer
on a high school kid because they have time to develop him.
Clearly, that is what the Jazz were thinking. They didn't need a lot of
additional help right away, they had a set rotation. So they could let John
Stockton and Karl Malone still play most of the minutes, and let Stevenson
develop under two of the most professional guys, learning how to become a pro.
Unfortunately, it has not worked out, and that is why it always is a gamble
to take one of these guys.
| |  | |
| Kemp |
| |  | |
| Shaq |
Which is why this draft is so uncertain. Brown and Chandler seem to have the
most upside, given they both are true centers, have good size, have room to
grow and seem skilled.
Curry could be the player who one day could contend with Shaquille O'Neal,
given his 285 pounds. But he also could be the player to turn into the next
Shawn Kemp, because several people say he is more like 310 pounds -- and it's
not all muscle.
Diop (pronounced JOP) may have the most upside, but he may have the most
downside. A native of Senegal, he has played only two years of organized
basketball in the United States, and he sustained a foot injury last season
-- the reason that he is the most likely to drop out of the top eight.
"This is the most confusing draft that I can recall," Walker said. "I've
talked with a lot of other general managers, and they have all said the same
thing."
Frank Hughes covers the NBA for the Tacoma (Wash.) News-Tribune. He is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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