The Indiana Pacers have a big problem. And it's not the 12 losses in the last 13 games and 10 straight losses on the road, that they're now closer to sixth place in the Eastern Conference than first place, that they're staring at the mother of all collapses just a year after the Milwaukee Bucks went from first in their division to out of the playoffs in six weeks.

Oh, that's part of it. Because if the Pacers don't start winning some games -- and right now -- they face the prospect of losing their franchise player and having to start over after being nowhere.

This is a talented Pacers team, one cleverly reassembled from going to the NBA Finals in 2000 and then becoming first-round playoff victims the next two springs to being back in contention to return to the Finals this season. It's why Indiana's Donnie Walsh is regarded as one of the most astute executives in the NBA. However, it all could fall apart in the next month.

	Jermaine O'Neal may decide to win a title elsewhere, like alongside Tim Duncan in San Antonio.

Because if the Pacers continue in this shocking, somewhat inexplicable freefall, they could lose their biggest star, Jermaine O'Neal, the two-time All-Star and USA Basketball player who is the Pacers' leader in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots.

Stars make the difference in the NBA. O'Neal isn't, well, the other O'Neal, and he's no Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady or Kevin Garnett. But he's the Pacers' only true All-Star, the team's only real go-to scorer and best interior defender.

He's a free agent, and the assumption was he'd stay to lead a growing Pacers' team with Al Harrington and Jonathan Bender, who also skipped college. But what if the Pacers can't turn this thing around, the open sores of losing now oozing finger pointing and blame? Harrington and Ron Artest are too selfish, shooting without regard to the team's offense or their teammates' needs. Brad Miller has slacked off of late with a foot problem with three games of six points or fewer in the last eight. There's nobody at point guard and Reggie Miller is going on 38. He can't be around that much longer, especially when hardly anyone throws him the ball anymore. One of the greatest shooters in NBA history is sixth on the team in field-goal attempts, just barely taking more shots than Jamaal Tinsley, who's never shot above 40 percent.

What if O'Neal looks around and thinks, "I could be here or with Tim Duncan."

It's the Pacers' greatest fear. Perhaps the NBA's. Duncan and O'Neal on the front line could turn the San Antonio Spurs into the NBA's next dynasty. Kobe who? The championship goes through San Antonio? And hardly any airlines.

The conventional thinking around the NBA has been the Spurs would make a bid for point guard Jason Kidd to team with Duncan after this season. With David Robinson retiring, the Spurs will be far enough below the salary cap to pay any free agent top dollar. Though a Kidd-Duncan pairing would be terrific, Kidd turns 30 this month. Duncan is 26 and O'Neal is 24.

It's made sense to go for Kidd, an all-NBA player and leader. But second-year point guard Tony Parker is beginning to emerge along with shooting guard Manu Ginobili. Duncan has been terrific, and probably should be MVP again the way he's kept the Spurs in title contention with Robinson dragging through a final season and spare parts like Stephen Jackson, Malik Rose and Kevin Willis playing major roles. What would the Spurs look like with another All-Star and defensive stopper by Duncan's side, especially someone like O'Neal who can take his game outside? If the Spurs sign Kidd, they'd be left without any significant big man to take the pressure off Duncan. O'Neal could be that player.

The Pacers, under collective bargaining rules, can pay O'Neal more than the Spurs can. But O'Neal still could make some $90 million from the Spurs and have the chance to play for one of the great teams of this era. It's why this stretch run is perhaps more important for the Pacers than for any team in the NBA.

The biggest problem, though, is not going to go away. There's no one to play point guard.

The Pacers had the chance to get a great one, or at least rent one, but he got away. And you can't really blame them.

They had been in discussions for six months with the Seattle SuperSonics about acquiring Gary Payton. The Sonics realized they would lose Payton, so they became more willing to deal. But they had to have one young piece. It would have to be Harrington. In the end, the Pacers said no. It wasn't so much Harrington, but then how could they re-sign Payton? O'Neal, Brad Miller and Reggie Miller all are free agents after this season. The Pacers' payroll already is over the luxury tax threshhold. Re-signing their core of free agents and Payton would put the Pacers in such a deep financial hole, ownership would not allow it in small-market, low-revenue Indianapolis.

There was the chance to get to the Finals this season, though.

Tinsley hasn't been a point guard to lead the team, especially late in games, and he's often replaced by coach Isiah Thomas in the fourth quarter. The Pacers talked about picking up Bimbo Coles, even retired Tim Hardaway, but have stayed with Tinsley, Erick Strickland and Jamison Brewer. Which doesn't spell championship.

The Pacers have wonderful talent but a bit too much of it now. That only makes sense in the NBA. It's a problem the Clippers have struggled with for years and which the young Bulls continue to try to sort out.

Young players have goals. Winning isn't in the top three. There's that next big contract, establishing yourself, which means getting your points, and so on. So Harrington shoots a lot. And Artest shoots a lot. Wild, crazy shots that can come at anytime from anywhere. Bender is just returning from various injuries and figures to shoot a lot. Tinsley loves to shoot. It's why the guy who should be shooting, Reggie Miller, doesn't shoot a lot.

	The Pacers haven't been the same since Ron Artest's run-in with Pat Riley in Miami.

Sometimes the talent overwhelms the opposition, which the Pacers often have been able to do. But when there are problems, as there have been of late, it looks like five guys running for a train.

Tinsley's mother is seriously ill and he's missed some games and practices. Being yanked from the lineup has furthered his depression. Bender has been on and off the injured list since Dec. 13, when he tore a calf muscle. O'Neal's stepfather, a security guard at Conseco Fieldhouse, has been hospitalized in critical condition in Indianapolis reportedly with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head. Austin Croshere left the team for a few days when his father-in-law died. Plus, Brad Miller has experienced foot problems of late and been slowed.

Then there's Artest. He's been suspended several times, and the team never has recovered since his suspension after a series of wacky incidents in Miami, the Pacers winning 10 of 11 before that. Although he's a terrific defender, his shot selection is as bizarre as his bahavior, and there's some feeling the team is reluctant to keep him out of games for too long lest he'd come in and play even more out of control in shorter minutes. Only O'Neal averages more minutes per game, so when Harrington does play -- he was the starter last season until injured and then lost his job when the team acquired Artest -- he apparently feels he has to shoot. He came back in as a starter Tuesday with Artest reeling and played 42 minutes against the Hornets with one assist. O'Neal had none in 41 minutes.

And, oh yes, the Bad Boy thing. It seemed fun for awhile, becoming tough guys and swaggering around, but Artest seemed to take it a little too seriously. Now it's a chicken or egg thing. Do the Pacers get called for so many flagrant fouls and technicals because they're rougher, or do the referees expect them to play dirty so they watch them more closely and call more fouls?

Harrington was called for a flagrant foul on Tuesday, while Bender and Thomas were charged with technical fouls. It was the sixth consecutive game the Pacers have been hit with a flagrant foul and/or technical. They are the runaway league leader in flagrant points with 18.

After Wednesday's game in Philadelphia, the Pacers play eight of their next nine at home, where they are 25-5. Although in losing badly at home to the Hornets, it will have to take more than a home court to turn them around.

The Pacers may be facing the most crucial stretch of games in franchise history. Their development and the next decade may depend on these last 18 games.

Sam Smith, who covers the NBA for the Chicago Tribune, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.