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Wednesday, February 5
Updated: April 15, 10:05 AM ET
 
If Lakers go up, who's coming down?

By Joe Lago
ESPN.com

THE BOX OUT
PICK AND POPS
1. It's not like he'll win the award, but Kobe Bryant has looked awfully MVP-esque the past week, scoring 40, 38, 42 and 35 in four straight wins. And he shot a respectable 46.5 while doing so, too.

2. After Tuesday's overtime loss to the Nuggets -- in which Jamal Crawford slipped and fell in the waning seconds to prevent the Bulls from attempting a game-tying 3-pointer, Bill Cartwright should let all calls from Jerry Krause go straight to voice mail.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
The teams ahead of them aren't losing. They've got to win a lot of games to get the seventh or eighth spot. You have to wonder how much gas they have left."
Pacers guard Reggie Miller on the Lakers' playoff chances.
NUMBER OF THE DAY
$25M
Nike's five-year contract offer to Kobe Bryant just to wear its shoes.
TRASH TALK
You had your say. So here are the best comments:

The Lakers are not just going to the playoffs, they will also be No. 5 seed as well. The Kings should also be careful because the Lakers are not that far behind them. The No. 4 seed is also a possibility!
Joe Carmel, St. Louis, Mo.

I think all the Laker haters ought to just sit back and enjoy the ride on our way to a fourth NBA championship.
Bobby Nash, Dallas, Texas

I do not understand why the Lakers are a team that ESPN and the NBA love so much. Their slow-it-down, half-court offense makes me sick.
Sufian Kassam, Houston, Texas

I'm seriously tired of all the attention the Lakers are getting. Even though the Lakers have three rings, people are still reluctant to give the Kings their credit. They've always said the Kings can't play defense, scratch that, the Kings can't win on the road, scratch that, the Kings can't beat the Lakers, scratch that, the Kings can't win big games, scratch that, the Kings can't win a championship, scratch that -- in June.
Tom Brown, Sacramento, Calif.

The Lakers will probably still when the championship. It's going to break a lot of hearts when they do. Who wants to play them in the first round? Surely not the Queens or the Mavs. Neither one of them can beat the Lakers.
Pernell McLean, Valhalla, N.Y.

So it looks like the Los Angeles Lakers are going to make the playoffs after all. The standings say they're not there yet, but that swagger -- the thing that Chris Webber says his Kings long for just as much as a championship ring -- has returned to the world champions' strut in their climb to .500.

Which brings up this formality: Who's not going to make the playoffs?

If the Lakers rise up into the Western Conference's top eight as we expect, then one of the West's first-half surprises must come down.

With Kobe Bryant's MVP-worthy play of late and Shaquille O'Neal's gradual return to his old self, we know some team's heart will be broken. Automatically excluding the West's locks for the playoffs -- the Mavericks, Kings, Spurs and Trail Blazers (yes, at 15 games over .500, they'll overcome their annual implosion to make the playoffs) -- the four candidates for heartbreak are the Timberwolves, Jazz, Suns and Rockets.

Here's what has to happen to the current five-through-eight teams -- short of a second-half injury to a key player -- to miss the postseason and make way for those upwardly mobile Lakers.

  • Minnesota Timberwolves. The triumverate of Troy Hudson, Rod Strickland (currently injured) and Igor Rakocevic as Terrell Brandon's replacement doesn't cut it at point guard anymore. … Kevin Garnett, having to keep the offensive flow even more, starts to wilt from playing the most minutes he's ever played in his eight seasons. … Joe Smith never gets healthy enough to give the consistent 10 and 6 KG needs as support in an already-thin frontcourt. … They continue to play poorly on the road, where they have 12 of their last 21 games. … A killer mid-March stretch that takes them to the West's four toughest homecourts (Sacramento, Phoenix, Dallas and San Antonio) and a home-and-home with the Lakers knocks them out of the top eight and saves Minnesota fans their breath from complaining about yet another first-round exit in the playoffs.

  • Utah Jazz. Matt Harpring, who's shooting over 50 percent for the first time in his five NBA seasons, stops hitting those open jumpers and then can't figure out why Karl Malone and John Stockton won't pass him the ball anymore. … Father Time finally taps Malone and Stockton on the shoulders and says, "It's time, fellas." … A vindictive Jerry Sloan can't help himself and gets his revenge against referee Courtney Kirkland, resulting in another prolonged suspension. … If they're somehow fighting for the playoff lives in the final week, they get put to rest by the Rockets, Mavericks, Spurs and Kings (at Arco Arena).

  • Phoenix Suns. Amare Stoudemire, who's already hit the rookie wall, never returns to his better-than-Yao form of December and January when Phoenix's rise was at its highest. … Shooting 43 percent (which ranks in the bottom 10 of the league) catches up to them when Second-Half Amare isn't crashing the boards like he used to. … Penny Hardaway, the glue that kept the Suns together in the first half, doesn't come close to the 10-5-4 guy that helped them reach the No. 3 spot in the West. … Their playoff hopes get taken off life support after playing six of nine on the road, where the Suns are a meager 9-17. Tour stops include Dallas, Detroit, Indiana and Staples to face the Lakers.

  • Houston Rockets. Yao Ming finally gets acclimated to U.S. hoops -- and stops all the fancy touch-passing to Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley, who get their comeuppance for not giving up the rock the first three months. In turn, this eliminates any continuity the Rockets' offense ever had, forcing them to rely on their second-best defensive field-goal percentage even more. … A Feb. 18 loss to the Lakers knocks them into the ninth spot, and they never get back into the playoff picture after a brutal late-March, early-April stretch in which they play nine of 11 on the road, where they have won just seven of 21 so far.

    So, for the fallen franchise, the consolation may not be that bad if it's lucky enough to win the ultimate parting gift in May.

    The No. 1 pick and the right to have LeBron James wear its jersey.

    Joe Lago, the NBA editor for ESPN.com, writes the Morning Shootaround every Wednesday and Friday.





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