For those of you still out there who refuse to see the light -- sort of like those Japanese soldiers not believing that World War II had ended -- there is yet another sign that the Eastern Conference will begin next season even further down the food chain.

The reason: rookie point guards.

There are a lot of them coming into the NBA next season -- at least six in the Eastern Conference -- and that is not the best of signs if you're a team expecting to make a big move. Ordinarily, rookies have a hard enough time in the NBA. Add point guard to the job description in a league known for consuming its young and, well, you get the idea. It's a learning curve that Steve Carlton would be happy to call his own.

	LeBron James isn't the only rookie point in the East learning on the run.

In addition to the New Kids at The Point, there also remains the very real possibility that the Eastern Conference could be losing its top two point guards. One of them, Gary Payton, has said adios to the East after two-plus unremarkable months in Milwaukee. And Jason Kidd's "visits" to San Antonio and, perhaps, Dallas, are being monitored like President Bush's trip to Africa.

Although basketball still is clearly a game where size matters -- really, really matters in one particular case in Los Angeles -- there's also an argument to be made that the point guard is, at worst, the second most important player on the floor. And in the East, where power forwards masquerade as centers on a nightly basis, it means that the point guard position is even more critical.

It's not like point guards haven't made an impact as rookies. Damon Stoudamire was a Rookie of the Year in 1996 and Allen Iverson, a crypto-point guard, won the following year. Mark Jackson was a Rookie of the Year in 1988 while Kidd shared the award with Grant Hill in 1995. All those award winners have one thing in common: They all played for losing teams and only one of them, Jackson, played on a team which made the playoffs. His team lost in the first round.

We could have another ROY this season at the position, probably starting with the new kid in Cleveland, don't you think?

LeBron James is just one of the possible six rookies in the East who, as of now, could well end up as their team's starting point guard on opening night. James is a lock to be there, unless Paul Silas loses his mind in the next few months. T.J. Ford has all but been given the keys to the kingdom in Milwaukee with the departure of Payton and the trading of Sam Cassell to Minnesota.

In Orlando, the Magic are counting on Reece Gaines to be their floor leader, as Darrell Armstrong is entering free agency. The Magic are still paying for their decision two years ago to take Jeryl Sasser instead of Tony Parker, despite the pleadings of personnel boss Gary Brokaw. (Orlando's response: It already had one tiny point guard -- Armstrong -- and didn't want another.) Downstate, Pat Riley all but guaranteed that Dwyane Wade would be given every opportunity to play the point in Miami. Hey, if you had Anthony Carter, you'd be willing to try anything, too.

Last, but not least, are the Celtics, who secured a predraft deal with Marcus Banks of UNLV, then went around denying any such arrangement existed. If Banks isn't in the starting lineup on Opening Night, it will be a major disappointment. That's because his "competition" comes from Tony Delk, who isn't a point guard but plays one in games and practices, and from J.R. Bremer, who thinks 3-point shot before passing (undoubtedly a Celtic condition).

We haven't even touched on Chicago and its perilous condition. But Kirk Hinrich could emerge as a starter if Jamal Crawford stumbles or if coach Bill Cartwright moves Jalen Rose to small forward and plays Hinrich and Crawford together. But while he may not start, Hinrich nevertheless should get a lot of playing time. And there's also the Nets. If Kidd bolts, would they dare turn things over to Zoran Planinic? Probably not. But he's their first-round pick.

Recent history has not been kind to rookie point guards; the exceptions being the precocious Parker and, if you stretch the limits of the position, the incredibly versatile Steve Francis. Last year was an out-and-out disaster for the lads who came in promising to run the show.

Chicago's Jay Williams had a so-so season and then may have ended his career in a motorcycle accident. Cleveland's Dajuan Wagner was hurt all year, as was the Knicks' Frank Williams. Washington's Juan Dixon and Atlanta's Dan Dickau played sparingly.

	It's rare when a point guard makes a real splash as a rookie and rarer still when he makes it on a winning, playoff-caliber team. Cleveland, Miami, Boston, Orlando, Chicago and Milwaukee are all hoping that history bends a bit in their favor next season.

The year before, the first point guard wasn't drafted until No. 22, when Orlando took Sasser. (The Celtics also passed on Parker at 21, taking Joseph Forte, who they hoped they could mold into a point guard.) The best two points in that draft were Parker, taken 28th, and Spain's Raul Lopez, taken 24th by Utah.

In 2000, the crop was similarly slim. Crawford, who went No. 8, has emerged as the best of the lot, pushed closely by Speedy Claxton, whose performance in the NBA Finals should fetch him a job offer or two. Claxton went 20th to Philadelphia. But Keyon Dooling (No. 10 overall) and Mateen Cleaves (No. 14) have done nothing and Erick Barkley (No. 28) is out of the loop. You have to go back to 1999 -- five drafts -- to find Francis, Andre Miller, Jason Terry and Baron Davis, all chosen in the top 10 and all having found a degree of success in the league. (William Avery went 14th that year; he's now out of the loop.) But of those four, only Davis' team made the playoffs that season and that's mainly because he joined a playoff-ready team.

The history lesson in all of this: It's rare when a point guard makes a real splash as a rookie and rarer still when he makes it on a winning, playoff-caliber team. Cleveland, Miami, Boston, Orlando, Chicago and Milwaukee are all hoping that history bends a bit in their favor next season. The Celtics, Bucks and Magic were 6-7-8 in the East last season -- so they have some reason to hope (even moreso if both Payton and Kidd are out west.) The Bulls feel ready to take the proverbial next step. The Cavs may lead the league in attendance -- a worst-to-first turnaround thanks to LBJ. Could Riley endure another season like the last two?

In James, Wade, Ford, Gaines, Hinrich and Banks, the NBA has what could be the best collection of rookie point guards in the last five drafts. We'll even add Luke Ridnour to the group, although he's hurt. But he could start in point guard-free Seattle, which, last we checked, is still in the West. (And a guy who could be great, Leandro Barbosa of Brazil, went 28th and was dealt to Phoenix. He could be a steal.)

That makes seven of them -- all in the top 16 picks. If even two of them emerge as stars of good teams, that will be a real reason to celebrate.

Peter May, who covers the NBA for the Boston Globe, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.