I believe it was the Kingston Trio who once lamented, "I know 500, don't sound like much." They were referring to bail money to get out of the Tijuana Jail.

The modern-day interpretation would be this: "It isn't much, but it's all we can hope for right now." The speaker: Phil Jackson. Or, perhaps this: "Playoffs? You're talking about playoffs?" The speaker: Allen Iverson.

How can it be that we are at the end of January and the three-time defending NBA champions are still three games under .500? Wasn't their terrible, Shaquille O'Neal-free start (3-9, with Kobe Bryant filleting his teammates) going to be a faded memory once the Big Reversal arrived on the scene? Weren't the Los Angeles Lakers going to then go on a march where they mercilessly took names and numbers and soon found their way, at least past the Warriors, Rockets and Suns?

	Phil Jackson, right, admits that his Lakers might not be that good after all.

Hasn't happened. (OK, two out of three ain't bad. They are one-half game ahead of those feisty Warriors.) The Lakers remain tantalizingly close to that magical .500 mark, but a loss tonight to the Kings, or a loss in any of their next four games, assures that they will be a sub-.500 team at the All-Star break.

Hey, the news isn't all bad. Forbes Magazine thinks the Lakers are still the most valuable franchise in pro basketball -- although much of that is based on the fact that the Lakers have a lot of sellouts in the playoffs, when the already altitudinous ticket prices are jacked even higher. But .500 might not even get the Lakers to the playoffs; the No. 8 team in the conference is four games over .500.

And then there's former Knicks coach Jeff Van Gundy, who is now an analyst for Turner Sports as he awaits his next calling. While working the Mavericks-Timberwolves game on Wednesday, Van Gundy said that neither Shaq nor Kobe deserved to go to the All-Star Game because the All-Star players should come from winning teams. How's that for a major diss? (Zydrunas Ilgauskas could not be reached for comment.)

Seriously, there still are plenty of games left (39 for the Lakers) to get their act together. You would have a hard time, maybe even an impossible time, finding anyone who doesn't think that somehow, some way, these guys will do what it takes to at least get into the playoffs. (That alone indicates how times have changed.)

And, of course, if they do that, they will instantly become The Team That No One Wants To Face, regardless of the venue.

But they're not there yet. Every time we think the Lakers are finally going to snap out of their funk, they go back to their November ways. They lost at home to the Warriors and then lost at home to a New Jersey team which was playing its fourth game in five nights, all in Western Conference locales, and had already lost in Utah, Sacramento and Golden State. They've been booed lustily at home, had meetings on off days and little has worked.

Even the cerebral Jackson, who in the past has basically had to show up to watch his team win, admitted recently that he may not have a really good team. One thing is clear: The Lakers have been consistent in their inconsistency.

Then again, maybe it's simply the regular-season grind finally kicking in for a team which has put a lot of miles on its tires in the last three seasons. The Lakers have been famous for paying lip service to what they see as an 82-game glorified exhibition season, the latest evidence of that being Shaq's curious decision to postpone toe surgery until Sept. 11, ensuring his early-season absence.

Each year under Jackson, they have dropped a peg in the conference, starting out in Year 1 as the Best of the West, dropping to No. 2 in Year 2 and then to second place in the division last season. The last two championships have come via winning the Western Conference title without the homecourt advantage.

But even as they slid ever so slightly, they always managed to win. They won 58 games last year. The year before, when the Shaq-Kobe feud reached Defcon 5 levels, they won 56 games and then went 15-1 in the playoffs. This team stands to be Jackson's worst in terms of overall wins since the 1994-95 Bulls, who won 47, most of them without Michael Jordan.

	The Lakers have played into June the last three years; no other team has done that. The Lakers have played 58 playoff games the last three years. That's a season and a half for someone like Marcus Camby.

It could simply be a case of circuit overload finally kicking in. There may be a reason why no team in modern times has won four straight titles -- it takes a lot out of a team to win two or even three. The Lakers have played into June the last three years; no other team has done that. The Lakers have played 58 playoff games the last three years. That's a season and a half for someone like Marcus Camby. No one else has come close to that figure; the Philadelphia 76ers are next with 38.

When the Celtics were winning championship after championship in the 1960s, the regular season ended in March. From 1958-59 through 1965-66, when Boston won titles every season, the Celtics played a total of 17 playoff series. In the last three years, the Lakers have played 16. The latest the Celtics ever won a championship in that stretch of eight consecutive titles was April 28, which is now a date for the first round. In other words, those Celtics teams had time to chill in the offseason (when most of them needed jobs to make ends meet.)

No one has won four titles in a row since then. As best as can be determined, only two teams, the 1998-99 Bulls and the 1969-70 Celtics, failed to reach the playoffs the year after winning a championship. There were obvious reasons for both, of course. The Bulls blew up their roster following the 1998 win. In 1969, Bill Russell called it quits.

The Lakers have no such excuse. They basically have the same core group of guys who've won three straight titles, which makes this year's play so maddening. But it's also what makes it so predictable. The Lakers remain the marquee team and marquee teams tend to draw the absolute best from every opponent, especially on the road. L.A. is a distressing 6-15 away from home this season and one of those "road" wins came right in the Staples Center against the Clippers. Their victory over the Suns on Wednesday in Phoenix was their second road win of the season against a winning team. The other came in New Orleans. A win over the Lakers still means something, even as its getting devalued by the day.

The Lakers play three of the next four on the road before the All-Star break, with toughies tonight and next Tuesday (at Indiana.) They might send a signal to all those who foolishly think their days are over by winning all of them and sending a message that the rest of the season will be quite different from what has transpired so far. They'll catch a break as the Kings will be without Chris Webber and the Pacers will be without Mt. St. Artest.

At this point, they'll take every break they can get. Because, as sad as it sounds, the Lakers need every break they can get. We may not be saying that for too much longer. Then again, who expected us to be saying it in late January?

Peter May, who covers the NBA for the Boston Globe, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.