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A new year is upon us. For most of us, it really is a new year. For the
NBA, it's merely another day at the office/arena/airport. For the fringe
players, it's another five days until they can be signed to 10-day contracts.
But it's also a time when we can take a look at what we've seen so far
and fearlessly project what we will see in the coming calendar year. Many predictions will blow up in our faces. Some will actually come true. So
here are some worth considering as you decide how to tell your significant
other you've actually gone up a size or two:
The 2002-03 champion will be the Sacramento Kings. That's not really
going out on a limb, really, but it's pretty hard to make a convincing case for
the Lakers at this point. Anyone who watched the Western Conference finals last
year saw the better team lose. The Kings controlled five of the seven games.
They just didn't know how to close, and there could have been some deep-down
intimidation at the sight of those purple and gold uniforms. No longer. Having
lost to L.A. three straight times in the postseason, their turn has come. They
have the deepest team. They have experience. They are better than last year and
the Lakers are not. Get ready for a parade in the state capitol.
|  | | Might we see Chris Webber and his Kings teammates smiling in June? |
The Kings will beat the Pacers in the Finals. And all of those people
who doubted Isiah Thomas' ability to get this team to that point will, in
unison, offer their mea culpas. (Mea culpa.) These are the two deepest teams in
their respective conferences and, barring any weird injuries, they should have
enough to make it out.
The supposed mega free agent class won't be what it's cranked up to be for one
reason -- most of the big names will stay put. The one known team-changer will
be Michael Olowokandi. I have a better chance of playing for the Clippers next
season than he does. If he's really, really smart, he goes east, because Tim
Duncan had that chance two years ago and decided to stay where he was. The
result: two humiliating playoff losses to the Lakers. Orlando could really use
Olowokandi, and that has to be an attractive option for him. Miami will make a
push for him as well. If he stays in the West, there's no better place for him
alongside Duncan because ...
As Bob Dylan once sang, "you ain't goin' nowhere." All signs point to
Duncan staying right where he is. He likes San Antonio. He likes his coach. He
likes just about everything there is to like there. He's going to uproot now
and go to Miami? Denver? Don't think so. Most league execs think Duncan staying
put is as much of a lock as there is.
As for the others, well, Jermaine O'Neal will stay in Indiana unless he
decides he'd rather play next to Duncan. But he likes Indiana and the Pacers
are playing well, so why should he go anywhere else as long as the Simons empty
the vault to keep him? Jason Kidd also will stay in New Jersey. The Nets are
still the best team in the East until proven otherwise. However, a first-round
upset for New Jersey might change Kidd's thinking. If he does decide he wants
to join Duncan in San Antonio, prepare for a sign-and-trade deal that would
enable the Nets to wring Tony Parker out of the deal.
But why would any free agent want to go west? Especially a big man,
because you have a few more years (we think) of Shaq and a lot more years of
Yao. If I'm a big man, why do I want to play those guys four times a year
instead of two? Why do I want to possibly have to go up against both of them
in a best-of-seven series? Answer: I don't. But the Spurs will be going hard
after a big guy to pair with Duncan, who, after all, is a pretty attractive
lure.
Yao will show what the fuss is all about, but he also will unavoidably
crash in the spring. The guy has been at it physically and mentally for almost
a year running. He knows about the Great Wall. Does he know about the Rookie
Wall? If he somehow avoids it, that would be his most remarkable achievement of
the season. And what he really needs is a summer to chill in Houston (if that's
possible, given the weather) and work with his pro coaches, not with the
Chinese National Team, which has no guards.
We all know who's going to be No. 1 in the draft. Well here's an early
projection about No. 2 -- Syracuse's Carmelo Anthony. He hasn't said he's on the
one-year plan in upstate New York, but he sure ain't on the four-year plan, so
why wait? Plus, you might even be able to locate a college scout or two who
likes the dynamic Anthony as much as the dynamic LBJ. Can't see any team
bypassing those two (assuming, of course, they come out) for some foreign big.
You know the real unknown now: Who's going to be the first senior taken? Try to
find an NBA exec to put some money down on that one.
It's going to be a long, cold summer in Denver. GM Kiki Vandeweghe has
done wonders ridding the team of the many, ill-advised moves by his
predecessor, Dan Issel. But even with all that cap room, it's hard to see star-
quality guys want to go to a team like that. It didn't happen in Chicago.
Players want to go to winners, assuming, of course, that the money is equal.
Jeff Bzdeklik has done a terrific job getting blood out of a stone in Denver,
but why he doesn't play his lottery picks (I can't spell their names) 30-plus
minutes a night is a mystery. What is he thinking, that it's more important to
play Juwan Howard, who is on his way elsewhere? Give a free agent-to-be
something to look forward to, coach.
One team you won't want to play in April -- Memphis. America's Team,
also known as the Grizzlies, is going to get better and better as the season
progresses. If Hubie Brown can ever get a healthy Michael Dickerson, they'll be
even better. But they have a gifted group of kids and a coach who can teach
them what they need to know.
Michael Jordan will finish his career without so much as a playoff
bang. It's tough at the bottom of the Eastern playoff race, and the Wizards
don't seem to have what it takes.
Have you noticed that Bob Johnson hasn't even named a basketball guy in Charlotte yet? Maybe he's waiting on You Know Who;
they are said to be friends, and Jordan has already done a lot of work in
Washington.
Just a hunch, but why wouldn't Jordan jump? If that indeed does
happen, then we might have a better idea of why the NBA went for the Johnson
expansion bid. As it is, the league should just refund Steve Belkin the $1
million it charged for the application fee.
Peter May, who covers the NBA for the Boston Globe, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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