| | |  | | Dale Davis is no Rasheed or Webber, and it makes a big difference. |
LOS ANGELES -- It'll be the Lakers over Indiana in six in the NBA Finals.
And here are six reasons why:
1. They might have been a dominant regular-season team, but they haven't
dominated the playoffs. L.A. is still too young and immature to put away
the Pacers in five, as the Lakers should.
In these 2000 playoffs, the Lakers have been splendid until they reach
elimination games. Before those, they're 8-1. But once they get to the
point where they have a chance to put a team away, they're 3-5.
"They realize now, having had us down 3-1, that you can't close a team
out until you win that last game," Portland's Scottie Pippen said after
he and his teammates choked away Game 7 Sunday. "We pushed them to the
limit. But now they know that winning two or three is not going to end a
series."
The bet here is, the Lakers know it, but still won't be able to show it.
2. The Pacers might have Larry Bird on the bench, but what they really
need is Kevin McHale, in his prime, in the lineup.
Said another way, the Pacers don't have what it takes to push the Lakers
to the limit, as Sacramento and Portland did. Namely, a big scoring
power forward who can dominate A.C. Green and Robert Horry.
Chris Webber was the reason the Kings forced the Lakers to a fifth game
in the opening round, averaging 24.4 against L.A. Rasheed Wallace did
the same thing in the conference finals, averaging 22 until Sunday's
game, when he poured in 30.
"That's why we really weren't worried about Phoenix," said Lakers
reserve Rick Fox. "They didn't have that guy up front to go at what
people think is our Achilles heel. And that's also why we were blessed
that we didn't have to go up against Tim Duncan."
No kidding.
If Bird had his old friend, McHale at power forward, I'd give the
Pacers a great chance to win their first NBA title. But Dale Davis isn't
the kind of player who can exploit Green/Horry or the fact that Phil
Jackson has refused to give those players help via double-teams when
confronted with a Wallace or a Webber.
3. The Pacers won't be able to get Shaq off the floor due to foul trouble.
"You have to make Shaq come out and defend the screen-and-roll," said
one Eastern Conference scout. "I'd do that against the Lakers every time
down the floor. Shaq doesn't even come out. He stands five feet back and
'zones' everything."
The trouble is, the Pacers don't have the pick-and-roll weapons to make
Shaq pay. Privately, the Lakers aren't even worried about Mark Jackson
or Travis Best being able to turn the corner on them.
4. The Lakers get some MVP play out of O'Neal.
The Blazers did about as well as anyone could expect with Shaq,
sometimes rendering him invisible for long stretches with their
collapsing defense. They held O'Neal to 17 points in Game 6 and 18 in
Game 7, and Shaq managed to get off only three shots in the fourth
quarters of Games 5 and 6, combined.
Let's see the Pacers do that.
You need big bodies leaning on Shaq and also long, agile perimeter
defenders who can cheat toward Shaq to deny the entry passes and arrive
with fast double teams to do what the Blazers did. Although the Pacers
would be smart to challenge the Lakers' other players to beat them from
the outside, as Portland did, Rik Smits, Davis, Sam Perkins, etc.,
aren't the answer on the inside against the Big Diesel. He could average
30 ppg in this series, very easily.
5. The Lakers already have cleared their biggest hurdle.
Jackson called the Game 7 comeback against Portland "a building stone
for this team."
Fine, but the rest of America saw it for what it was: One of the great
collapses of all-time.
The Blazers had the West won until they gagged away the final 10
minutes, blowing a 15-point lead. If you can't make 10-foot shots, you
don't deserve to win the championship. And that's the primary reason the
Lakers were able to make that ridiculous 25-4 run in the final quarter
to win the series. It wasn't so much their great comeback, but the fact
that Portland handed them the series.
6. No way it goes seven.
"The reality is, when you get here, you've got to win it," Jackson said
about the Finals. "Nobody remembers who finishes second. We may have
learned enough at this point to know how to do it."
They have. But in no less than six.
Rim Shots I
What's next for Portland? Already, word is out that they'll
make a push for Toronto's Tracy McGrady in a sign-and-trade deal. The Blazers would have to give up Brian Grant and Bonzi Wells. McGrady's also
the subject of a similar sign-and-trade with the T-Wolves. Lots of teams will be
interested in Grant, because everybody is looking for an energetic,
tough power forward who can board and defend.
What's next in New
York? Speculation has the Knicks looking to make changes at power forward,
small forward and point guard (that about covers it, right?) with Chris
Webber, Brian Grant, Grant Hill and Gary Payton being mentioned (they
don't exactly aim low around the Garden, now do they?). Problem is,
Knicks are on the salary books for $71 mil next year, so they've got no
flexibility. Top candidates to leave: Chris Childs, John Wallace, Kurt
Thomas. Others who might be leaving: Latrell Sprewell, Marcus Camby.
Someone going nowhere: Patrick Ewing, who has one year at $14 mil left
on his contract.
Lakers-Pacers means: "It's me against Larry again,"
Magic Johnson said. If only they were still playing. "I'll see Larry and
say hi when they get out here. But I ain't gonna wish him good
luck." Nor would Bird. Some things never change.
Magic is still
baffled as to why Allen Iverson called him last week, seeking
help/advice/guidance/who-knows-what. It's because Iverson already went
through the A-thru-I listings in the phone book. Johnson's name was
next. But Magic's main message to The Incomplete Answer was that he
finally has to take responsibility for his actions. Iverson was late to
every Sixers playoff game and even made light of it. How many times was
Magic late in his 12 Laker seasons? "Never," he said. That covered
practices, shootarounds, etc., Mr. Answer Man.
Rim Shots II
Once Rod Thorn hires Lenny Wilkens to coach the Nets, look
for N.J.'s new boss to bring on Wayne Embry to run his basketball
operations, if that's the kind of guy he's looking for. Just as Wilkens
is very close to Thorn -- Rod was GM of the '96 Olympic team when Lenny
coached it -- the former NBA VP has a close relationship with Embry, now
a consultant to the Cavs. From what we hear, Embry, who has a stellar
reputation around the league, wants to get back in the business of
making trades, etc. If, for some reason, Embry isn't interested, Thorn
could make a move for Pistons VP Rick Sund. They have a close
relationship, as well. Also, Joe Dumars is about to get promoted with
many of the personnel powers Sund now enjoys. So who's not to say that
Sund wouldn't be interested?
The Lakers and Pacers are evenly matched in
one department: Salaries. The Lakers' payroll is $54 million, same as
Indy's. Both are $20 million over the cap, but they're not even close to
the league leaders. The two losers in the conference finals hold that
distinction, with the Knicks at $71 million and Portland at $74 mil.
Mitch Lawrence, who covers the NBA for the New York Daily News, writes a regular NBA column for ESPN.com.
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