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| Tuesday, March 12 Updated: March 14, 10:23 AM ET Breaking down West's madness in March By Scott Howard-Cooper Special to ESPN.com |
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March Madness? Sure. If you like that month or so of jostling. Or, you could see it for months. Plural. Playoff positioning. The postseason itself, with best-of-five and best-of-seven. No Cinderella stories, which, let's be honest, is usually just a polite way of saying "fluke." Teams that advance in the NBA are the real deal, not one-hit wonders.
The next five weeks in the West means everything. And then things really start to get good. It's tough not to like it so far. The top five teams in the conference -- Kings, Mavericks, Lakers, Spurs, Timberwolves -- were seperated by 4½ games at the start of play Monday. The Trail Blazers were pushing to get in that group, and this would not be a good time to tell Portland there's something it is not capable of doing. Maurice Cheeks, Rasheed Wallace and Scottie Pippen just got rain outlawed in Oregon, even if Wallace got T'd up by Mother Nature in the process. They all have 20 games or so to sort this out. And a million questions to answer. Including:
The breakdown gets even more precise. In alpabetical order:
The team that has been playing well when it could have been excused for having a transition period in the wake of a major trade gets an even bigger test now, courtesy of the schedule. Beginning Thursday: at Trail Blazers, at Warriors, home-and-home against Lakers, Spurs, Grizzlies, at Bucks, at Timberwolves. Four of those -- Lakers, Spurs, Timberwolves and Bucks -- could be division champions. The great thing about the Mavericks, or at least one of the great things, is that the machine runs well in any climate. They are 20-9 on the road, better than the Lakers and Spurs and much better than the Kings and Timberwolves. They were the only visitor to win in Arco Arena for the longest time. Now, 12 of the final 19 games are away from Big D. They'll try not to get too rattled by that stat.
The other reason Phil Jackson wants to put Sacramento in the rearview mirror as soon as possible, apart from just because it's Sacramento and those two haven't exactly been on the best terms, is that the Lakers want to end the race in the Pacific and the West as soon as possible to get more rest for O'Neal. The last one required a stint on the injured list. L.A. would just as soon act it wasn't so official this time -- to maintain the flexibility to play him before five games are up -- but it's a sign under any circumstances that Shaq's troublesome toe could become a major factor in deciding the eventual champion. The big stretch begins Sunday: Dallas, at Dallas, at San Antonio, Detroit, at Sacramento.
Twelve of the final 19 games, a run that begins Wednesday against the Rockets, are at home and the roadies are against the Grizzlies, Knicks, Nuggets, Warriors, Kings, Lakers and Clippers. That will be two playoff teams, unless the Clips rally. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves also have three back-to-backs, but one is all of 75 miles from Oakland to Sacramento (they no doubt would have preferred the Kings on the first night), another is Dallas/at New York (with the Mavericks on the first night) and that dreaded Memphis/at Denver combo. Not that they'll be able to coast to the finish. The Timberwolves had lost three in a row and five of 10 heading into Monday night against the Clippers, which, if they're not careful, will lead to another round of questions about early finishes for the team that has never been able to get out of the first round. There shouldn't be any fracturing in a close locker room, chemistry being one of the biggest reasons behind the great start that turned Minnesota into one of the success stories for 2001-'02, but having to challenge yourself so much down the stretch is never a good idea when there's enough other teams willing to do that for kicks.
The Trail Blazers are either peaking at the right time or expending all their energy to fill out the RSVP. The schedule breaks in their favor: Two four-game trips, but one is Boston-New Jersey-Chicago-Minnesota and the other is San Antonio-Dallas-Memphis-Houston.
The encouraging news for the Kings is that it's a very soft schedule of opponents after the March 24 showdown with the Lakers at Arco: Clippers, at Houston, at Charlotte, at Atlanta, at Memphis, at Detroit, at Utah. That's the end of the run of 11 of 15. It gets only slightly more challenging for the final seven games of the regular season after that: two against the Warriors and one each against the Knicks, Clippers, Timberwolves, Mavericks and -- well, whatta ya know! -- the Lakers. That last one just happens to be closing night, April 17, in Los Angeles. In case anything is on the line.
Yeah, that could do it. Of course, so can mediocre and inconsistent play ever since the 20-4 start that came with what even the Spurs admitted was a very soft schedule, not to mention the fact that a 19-year-old rookie point guard is about to head into his first playoffs. So no one knows what to expect from him when the pressure gets turned up, just as no one knows what to expect from what is basically the first time into that battle for this group, a re-worked roster from a season ago. One face could either lend familiarity or make for another transition period -- Sean Elliott is not dismissing the idea of a comeback, to the surprise of no one. Either way, the most telling stretch begins next week: Lakers, at Mavericks, Heat, at Clippers, at Portland, at Seattle, at Lakers.
Ten of the final 17 games are at home, including March 25 against the Jazz in a meeting that could have major implications in the final placements. Another, five days later against the Trail Blazers, is in Portland.
Utah passed a major hurdle with the successful run during February's Tour de America and have the advantage over the Clippers for the final playoff spot, although the teams play twice more. The Jazz had better get things close to wrapped up by the end of the second meeting, April 3 in Salt Lake City, because the seven games after that, to close the schedule, is against the Kings, against the Mavericks, at Lakers, at Phoenix, at Golden State, at Mavericks and against the Spurs. Utah just beat the Lakers, an encourging sign around the Delta Center since the Jazz had been 1-12 against the top five teams in the West before that. However, they also just lost to the Grizzlies. Such madness. Scott Howard-Cooper, who covers the NBA for the Sacramento Bee, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com. |
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