|  | | You can call Duke's Williams "Jay" ... and the safe pick in this year's NBA draft. |
The NBA draft lottery, and its promise of help for moribund franchises, is always filled with intrigue. But this season is even more filled with possibility -- and potential disaster. There is 7-foot-5 Yao Ming, with his skills and his uncertainty. There is Jason (Jay) Williams, the safe pick, and Mike (Mike) Dunleavy -- who may or may not stay in the draft, depending on who takes
him. There are talented players with question marks, like high schoolers Amare Stoudemire and DeAngelo Collins and junior college forward Qyntel Woods. There are high character guys who'll have to prove themselves, like Drew Gooden and Juan Dixon. And there are the usual complement of international players, though the clamor to jump on the foreign bandwagon is a little much. Yes, some Euros have played professionally for years, and that gives them an edge. ("You can put one of them in a game right away," a Western Conference personnel man says. "High school guys, you can't do that.") But there aren't hundreds of Nowitzkis and Pejas and Parkers over there, just like Kobes and McGradys are few and far between over here.
There are, however, a lot of good players available in the draft. It's thick with small forwards, more than a few good power forwards and the usual dearth of quality centers. But don't give up hope if your team takes a flyer on a raw, unproven big. Teams are more willing than ever these days to be patient and work with size, because there's none out there. Look at Jerome James, who was cut by Sacramento and had to play with the Globetrotters before Seattle brought him in. He lost 80 pounds and was starting for the Sonics in the playoffs. Tony Battie was dismissed as "El Busto" by Dan Issel. He's starting in the Eastern Conference finals. His center opponent will be Todd MacCulloch, a second-round pick for Philly two years ago who now has a $33 million deal. So pay attention. We now present some of the best bets, by position. This isn't Dave's opinion, by the way; this is the consensus thoughts of executives and personnel types that I think are pretty smart. Obviously, it's five weeks before the draft, and opinions will change. Plus, these guys aren't infallible; one of my guys readily admits, "I totally missed on Andre Miller." But more often than not, they're on the money.
| |  | |
| Williams |
Point guard
1. Jay Williams, Duke. Is he a "true" point guard? Maybe not. But he's
awfully good. "Like (Stephon) Marbury, he can get anywhere he wants to go," says a Pacific Division scout. "In addition to (Caron) Butler, those are the two guys in the draft you could put in a game right now." NBA types don't care much about the missed free throws that cost Duke against Florida State and in the tournament against Indiana, but the high turnovers do get their attention. Still, even Jay's detractors know he's the best in the draft. Said a Central Division executive: "I've been down on him, but the one thing about him is for a stretch, he can just take a game over. And he's the only guy in the draft that can do that. At the end of the day, he is going to be the No. 1 or 2 pick."
2. Dajuan Wagner, Memphis. NBA types are split on Wagner's position: Some are completely convinced he's a point, while others have him as a shooting guard. Since more of the folks we talked with said point guard, point it is. Juanny impresses with his ability to penetrate and get in the paint. "I love his mid-range game," gushes a Central Division exec. "The guy is strong and he can put the ball on the floor. He can create his own contact or take the contact." Says a Midwest Division exec: "From what I've seen of him he's not a one, an Allen Iverson-type one. But he is a scorer. He can flat score." The major question is his ability to run an offense. Said a Midwest Division scout: "Can his mentality become such that he can play point and not worry so much about shooting?"
3. Frank Williams, Illinois. The talent is there. But is the consistency? "He plays some nights and doesn't show other nights, and that's with a 35-game schedule," one scout says. "He's a hard one to figure out," says an exec whose team is looking for a point. "He's a very inconsistent player. I would not draft him right now with the idea that he's going to run my basketball team." But Williams' handle and ability to finish at the basket are too good to pass up.
4. Steve Logan, Cincinnati. Considered the best pure shooter of the points, Logan has many admirers. "I like his toughness," says an Atlantic Division scout. "He's a Tim Hardaway type. He makes big shots and he's got the small, compact body. Pretty good shooter, too ... being a scoring point has its advantages. He's dangerous all the time. He can cause double teams or come off of pick-and-rolls." But he's not as athletic as Wagner or Frank Williams, and the Bearcats' flameout in the NCAA tournament raised some flags. "The first game they played, he had an unbelievable first half, shot the lights out," a Midwest scout recalls. "Next game against UCLA, now you're going against taller, more athletic, more NBA-type players. He couldn't get anything done. Couldn't get his shot off, couldn't do anything. He was neutralized. That's what scares me."
5. Dan Dickau, Gonzaga. No one questions Dickau's heart or his willingness to mix it up. But they do question his size -- "He might not be six feet," says a Midwest scout -- and his footspeed. "I'm watching Gonzaga all year, and he played great in the big games on TV," said a Central Division exec. "Then I saw him in person and I was like, 'This guy's slow.' I don't know if he's going to be able to get by anybody or guard anybody. But he can shoot like a son of a gun." Others compare him not to fellow Gonzaga point John Stockton, but Dallas's Steve Nash with his ability to score. And even those who are lukewarm admire how much Dickau wants to win: "If I'm playing a pickup game this afternoon for pizza and beer, I'm picking Dickau," one scout says.
Top foreign prospect: Jiri Welsch, BC Olimpija Ljubljana. He's 6-6 and has a great handle. Potentially a mid-to-late first-round pick. "He's very interesting," says one scout. A pretty good shooter who played on the same team last year with another European guard who'll be in the league soon,
Sani Becirovic.
|  | | Kareem Rush, left, averaged 19.8 points despite being swarmed by opponents. |
Shooting guard
1. Kareem Rush, Missouri. Major stroke from the college 3-point line, and most NBA types think he'll hit the NBA three with ease. He's a terrific athlete and has explosiveness around the basket, and is generally viewed as a solid citizen. He got all the attention from defenses this year at Missouri and didn't put up the kind of numbers that were expected. But that doesn't sway his supporters. "His stock did drop," says a Central Division
scout, "but when teams look around and have a need at the two, I think it would be hard pressed to look past him."
2. Fred Jones, Oregon. May be the best athlete in the entire draft. And teams were impressed on how he improved after working all summer with fellow Ducks Luke Ridnour and Luke Jackson. But he needs to work on his shooting, and teams weren't thrilled that he opted not to play in the Portsmouth Tournament. Still, the word "upside" was made for him. "He definitely has the athleticism and explosiveness," says an Atlantic Division scout.
3. Juan Dixon, Maryland. No one has impressed NBA types more with his toughness and competitiveness than Dixon, to the point that almost no one said they were concerned with his size. "If a guy like that can't play in the league then there's something wrong with the league," says a Pacific Division scout. He may be the best one-dribble pull-up shooter since Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf -- "He can hit big shots better than anybody in the draft," says one scout -- and he impresses as a defensive player. But he is just 5-10 or so, and he'll have to play point in the NBA as much, if not more, than the two spot, and he'd be best served by going to a team with a larger point. Right now, he's viewed as a Bobby Jackson-Tony Delk type third guard. "I like him as a basketball player," says a Midwest personnel man. "There isn't one thing that you can specifically say he can do at the next level. (But) he's just a good basketball player."
4. Casey Jacobsen, Stanford. Can he shoot it? Absolutely. But there are big questions about his footspeed and ability to defend. Almost everyone said "late first-round pick," which sometimes is a red flag. He hasn't signed with an agent, which may be a good idea.
5. Roger Mason, Jr., Virginia. Scouts think he should be able to play both guard spots, and the name Aaron McKie came up in comparison. "He's strong and can make an open shot," says a Central Division scout. "He had to play some one this year, so he's capable. He was effective in the two-man game when they ran some screens for him." Says a Pacific scout: "He can get his own shot. But he's kind of erratic." And his defense needs to improve, though he has the ability in some minds to not only guard twos but some of the bigger and slower ones.
Top foreign prospect: Boris Diaw-Riffiod, Pau Orthez, France. Could also play some small forward but has the explosiveness at 6-7 to be a power two. Will likely go ahead of some better-known American shooting guards in the first round.
|  | | Connecticut's Caron Butler has the low-post game of a Paul Pierce. |
Small forward
1. Caron Butler, Connecticut. He's answered all the questions about his jail stint for drugs; he's been clean for two years. No one cares about it. Butler is the next name on most teams' lists after Jay Williams and Yao Ming. Listen to the gushing: "He's got the eye of the tiger," says a Pacific scout; "I just love the heart of the kid," says a Midwest executive; "A stud," says a lottery team's personnel man. Viewed by some as a "power
three" that has post-up skills in the mold of Paul Pierce, though he doesn't yet have Pierce's range. Butler's forte "might be as a point forward type," says an Atlantic scout. "I envision him being able to initiate offense in a few years." More than his skill, personnel men love his leadership and competitiveness, and how he's gotten better. "That (Connecticut) team had a lot less talent, but he did more with it than the kids at Kansas did with theirs," says the Pacific scout. He may not be the best defensive player around now, but scouts expect he'll work on it. Don't be surprised if someone tries to move up to two to take Butler, not Ming.
2. Mike Dunleavy, Jr., Duke. There's no question that Mike Jr. knows how to play. He can shoot it, and think it, and he's probably the best passing big in the draft. "He's played well in the big games," says a Central scout. "He's used to guys coming at him, so I'm sure he'll find a way to do it (in the NBA) ... Butler's tougher, but Dunleavy's more polished." But he will have to adjust to playing small forward and shooting guard after playing power forward at Duke, where he was expected to be moved to the three next season. And that physical adjustment gives some pause. "He's gotten stronger and he's gotten bigger, but will he back down when a guy hits him across the chest?," asks an Atlantic scout.
3. Qyntel Woods, NE Mississippi Community College. When the scouts start
sentences with "he's probably the most talented guy in the draft," it's usually a compliment and a warning. Woods fills both categories. There is no doubt that the 6-8 Woods has point forward skills with his ability to handle and pass. "I saw him play as good a game as anybody this year," says an Atlantic scout. "He just kind of spreads the wealth. He's got a little bit of Butler's toughness and the basketball skills of Dunleavy. A nice package." But you have to play at the other end of the floor, too, and that's where Woods comes up short in some minds. "He scares me to death," says a Midwest personnel man. "He's a worse defender than you are. Not only does he not have an idea, but he doesn't want to have an idea. But at the other end of the court, there's nothing he can't do." There are also questions about the level of competition he played against, but I can tell you after meeting the young man during the season that he doesn't lack confidence.
4. Jared Jeffries, Indiana. You may think there are questions about Jeffries' slim frame, and there are. But most of the scouts think the 6-10 Jeffries can overcome it because of his basketball intelligence. "This kid's got a pretty good knack of seeing the court and passing the ball," says a Pacific scout. "But, I don't know where he fits in." As for the body, "we've done studies on bodies, and there's no relevancy to it," says a Midwest exec. "Look at Rip Hamilton. They do get bigger and stronger and except for Shawn Bradley, there's no relevance. I'm not worried about the body part; I'm worried about how long you have to wait for the kid to develop into a player." Jeffries has back-to-the basket ability but at least at first, he's going to have to face the basket and shoot. "Because of his build, you want to project him as a wing player, and that's where he'd have to play right now," says a Central executive. "Moving out to the three, he's got a lot of improving to do in terms of his ballhandling, quickness, shooting range. But one thing that impressed me is he played hurt a lot of the year and didn't really complain about it. It probably affected his play. But in the tournament, he found a way to help his team win."
5. Bostian Nachbar, Benetton Treviso. Nachbar is 6-8 and while he doesn't have traditional European shooting range, he shoots it pretty well and could potentally play some two in the NBA. "The best thing about him is his last three steps. He explodes," says his Benetton coach, Mike D'Antoni. "He gets to the rim real quick. He avoids contact and finishes left and right. But he needs to mature. Probably the only knock on him is his energy level ... that will come when he matures and his lungs get better." That sentiment is echoed by a Midwest scout: "He slides a little bit, fades a little bit as the game goes on. He has nice perimeter skills, but the athleticism isn't at this level." Still, his stock is high. "If it was me, I'd take him higher than mid-first," says a Central scout. "He's a very skilled player. Potentally, he could be very good ... by far the best European player over there."
Top foreign prospect: Nachbar.
|  | | Maryland's Chris Wilcox will need time to work on his jump shooting. |
Power forward
1. Chris Wilcox, Maryland. What a burst for a guy that wasn't even starting until halfway through the season for Gary Williams. But that's what a run to the national championship can do for a fellow. His power display against Gooden and Jeffries opened NBA eyes wide. "He's a man," says a Midwest personnel type. Offensively, he showed little more than a jump hook and dunking on putbacks, but some think he can do more. "He can shoot facing up," says a Pacific scout. "He just has to work on it. He's made it in enough games." But consistency is a major question mark. "He needs to learn to play hard for at least 30 minutes, not 20," says the Pacific man. Says the Midwest personnel man: "He'll do something to dominate for a few minutes, and then he disappears." But potential is what the NBA drafts on these days, so there's no way Wilcox doesn't get taken high in the lottery. "If you draft him and you want him to come in and be your starting power forward," says a Central scout, "you're probably not very good and you're probably going to be disappointed."
2. Drew Gooden, Kansas. Good kid, good player. But a lottery pick? Gooden's
not a lock either way. He's a classic college 'tweener right now, though he does have upside. Reminds some of Keith Van Horn, who's now a classic NBA 'tweener. "Right now, (Gooden's) just kind of a forward," a Midwest talent evaluator says. "In time he'll be fine as a four, because his body will fill out. You have to wait a little on him. But he played at a pretty damn high level this year." He impressed others by trying to go more inside this season for the Jayhawks and leading that team to the Final Four, and while there are questions about Gooden's abilities to guard small forwards, the new zone rules are tailor-made for guys like him that might need protection on the wing.
3. Amare Stoudemire, Cypress Creek (Fla.) High School. Stoudemire has said he
literally doesn't know how to play the game. But he's got admirers. "Every time I've seen him, he's played hard," says a Pacific evaluator. "He's much more competitive than any of those (high school) guys from last year, probably because he's been kicked around. He's probably a little older than they were at that stage. He's got a motor. He's got a high give a (bleep) meter." But there's that gnawing problem about not knowing how to play. At all-star games, scouts say he had problems remembering the plays. And some wonder about whether he'll know how to work hard to improve during his career, or whether he'll think he's arrived on draft night. "You really have to study him and bring him in," says a Midwest exec. "All I've seen him do is dunk the ball. But you have to look at him."
4. Marcus Haislip, Tennessee. Played center for the Volunteers but is viewed
as a four at the NBA level, though he may not be done growing yet and could be a seven-footer someday. "He's a pretty strong kid," says an Atlantic evaluator, and Haislip is one of those guys who will probably impress during individual workouts. But though some think he can play some on the perimeter as well, others aren't sure. "He hasn't proven it yet to me," says a Midwest personnel man. "He's not really a center. He's bouncy, but he's not a back-to-the-basket player."
5. Melvin Ely, Fresno State. Can jump, run and block shots, and probably made a good decision pulling out of the draft last year. Ely can also score some and impressed scouts with good work at the U.S. Basketball trials in Colorado Springs. Some compare him to Alvin Jones, the Georgia Tech center taken by the Sixers at the end of the first round last year. "Alvin is bigger," says an Atlantic scout. "Ely is a much better instinctive player."
Honorable mention: Sam Clancy, USC. Most everyone had Clancy going in the
first round until he dislocated his kneecap in a Phoenix workout this week. Clancy was working out for the Suns along with Iowa forward Reggie Evans when his knee gave way coming down with the ball after blocking a shot. "I'm still kind of shook up about it," Suns GM Bryan Colangelo said this week. But the preliminary diagnosis, though is not as bad as first believed: There was no ACL damage and Clancy may miss only three months, which could have him back in time for training camp. The 6-7 (or so) Clancy was a possible late first-rounder in the eyes of some personnel types and put more than one guy in mind of Malik Rose. "He's got some things to work on and he's got an unorthodox shooting form," one Eastern Conference personnel director said. "But he can make an open jump shot, and he has medium-range shot. But the thing about him is he plays really hard ... he's not quite the rebounder Malik was, but I think he has that same work ethic and I think he can get better."
Top foreign prospects: Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Benetton Treviso, Italy and Maybiner Hilario, Vasco da Gama, Brazil. Tskitishvili is 19, stands 6-11 and can shoot it. Now don't believe all the Internet hype; he's good but he's not Nowitzki and he may not be Pau Gasol. But he's good. "He's way better than any of the high school kids who came out last year, and I was a big Tyson Chandler guy," a Central scout says of Tskitishvili. "This guy's right up there with him. Once he matures a little physically, he's gonna be real good. If he comes in the draft, he'd be tough to pass, particularly for a team that's good right now and could wait a year." But Tskitishvili's agent, Marc Fleischer, will take him out of the draft unless he's a certain top 10 pick. And there's this other small problem: "It's hard to judge," says one scout, "because the kid never plays." Tskitishvili came to Benetton midway through the Italian League season, and given his age and standing, he had to sit and watch for most of the year. "In practice you do all these individual drills and it's hard to tell," the Midwest scout said. "Does that equate to being a basketball player?"
Hilario first grabbed attention when he played well for Brazil against the U.S. team last year in the Goodwill Games, and he's continued to develop playing for Vasco da Gama. At 6-10, he's got a power game and a good touch on offense, and can block a shot at the other end. With all the noise being made about European players, the talent and skill level in South America is improving by leaps and bounds, and with Venezuela's Oscar Torres having a
solid rookie season this year for Houston, the floodgates may soon break wide open.
|  | | The biggest question surrounding China's Yao Ming may be his time commitment to the NBA. |
Center
1. Yao Ming, China. The hype notwithstanding, Yao can play. But given all the questions about his availability -- or lack of it -- someone will really have to be convinced that he's worth the gamble. "How much time will he spend here this summer?" asks a personnel man for a lottery team. "Will he miss training camp? ... Are they going to want him exclusively (for Chinese national teams)? If he's not the No. 1 pick, it's not going to be because of basketball stuff." Still, those who saw Ming work out in Chicago came away somewhat impressed. "I thought he was good," says a Central Division scout. "The guy's (7-5) and he's so skilled. His conditioning is a question but I think he's just 22. And he's a great kid. He's not going to be the player he should be for a year or two." Yao will not dominate the post, but he'll be impossible for all but the fastest bigs to guard on the wing. He will have a half-dozen inches on Kevin Garnett. He runs the floor well, handles extremely well for someone his size and looks like a high-70s or low-80s shooter from the line. Will he have trouble guarding people initially? Sure. But in time, as he learns some tricks about low-post defense, he may not be as big a liability. Said a scout who watched him play in China last year: "He'll challenge a lot of shots. When he played on the help side in the CBL, he challenged anything that was taken in there." Plus, Yao's intangibles are high. He's faithful to his heritage and government, but he's also learned English and gotten into the weight room enough to develop his lower body. If you're going to miss, a wise personnel man once told me, miss tall.
2. Curtis Borchardt, Stanford. Won't overwhelm you with his scoring, and several injuries during his college career raise red flags. But though most view him as a finesse center, he's a pretty good shot blocker, especially off the ball, and he gets busy on the glass. "He had a handful of games of over 20 rebounds," a Midwest personnel man says. "I don't care what league you're playing in, that's pretty damn good." Plus, his body has filled out and he probably can add a few more pounds. "There's some upside there," says a Pacific exec. "The biggest thing is his injuries. Plus, he's got to develop a post game. But he's one of the guys that you see boxing guys out and pursuing balls."
3. Chris Marcus, Western Kentucky. Compared with Michael Olowokandi, who also started playing relatively late. Scouts are mixed. Some like his hands
and shooting skills; others worry about the stress fracture he suffered early last season. "He would be a safer pick at 15 than one," says an Atlantic scout. Others gave him high marks for returning in time for the tournament, even though he could have played it safe and not returned, protecting his draft position. "He tried to play," says a Midwest scout. "He was about 280 at that point, and all that time, he kept the weight off and came back in pretty good shape. That was very impressive." The back and forth on Marcus is summed up by a Pacific scout: "I like a lot of things about him. But the thing I'm not sure about is if the kid really enjoys playing. That's suspect as far as I see ... we've got enough guys like that in the league right now."
4. Jason Jennings, Arkansas State. A tough kid who blocks shots and is long.
"I saw him play against Marcus last year, and I liked him," says an Atlantic exec. "He's got good hands. He's not a dominating, physical guy, but he's tough." He's ahead of Marcus on some cards and could potentially go in the late teens to 20s. "He's more of a polished, offensive player than (Dan) Gadzuric," the exec says, "but he's not the athlete Gadzuric is."
5. Dan Gadzuric, UCLA. He is very athletic for a big man, and he blocks
shots. The knock? Bad hands. "I'll give him this; he has gotten better," says a Midwest scout. "It'll be interesting to see where he'll go. We have a pick in the second round. If he's there, we might have to look at him." That's where most see him going, though if there's a run on size as there was on point guards late in the first round last season, Gadzuric could slip in. "He's got no instincts for the game," said one scout. "But he's got size and can rebound a little. He's never going to be an offensive player but he's got a little bit of a mean streak. I think he's a backup guy, somebody you have to look at."
Top three guys that intrigue ... but scare people
1. DeAngelo Collins, power forward, Inglewood (CA) High School. Like Butler, he's had a
run-in with the law. Unlike Butler, he's had several, including a felony assault on a teammate as a freshman. Obviously, a young person shouldn't have to pay for mistakes the rest of his life, but Collins' baggage is significant. "You wonder if somebody got a hold of him and spent a lot of time with him and told him how to act ... sometimes, you can affect those kids," a Midwest evaluator says. "Sometimes, you can't. But his high school coach swears he's turned the corner." Still, Collins is 6-10, with an NBA body, and talented. "Putting all the other things into play, he's got some skills," says one scout. "He might slip into the first round. If he didn't have all those other questions, I think he'd go higher. Mentally, does he know how to work? And does he know right from wrong? If he does, he's got a heck of a chance."
2. Tito Maddox, point guard, Fresno State. Sat out his first year of college, then declared for the draft last year, then pulled back, then was slated to play in the new American Basketball Assocation, but decided not to because he thought he'd be evaluated better by his play in college. "Nobody's seen him," says a Midwest personnel man. "It would be nice if he showed up in Chicago" at the pre-draft camp.
3. Rod Grizzard, shooting guard/small forward, Alabama. Talented, but questions abound. "He does have talent, but not to the point where you don't strongly consider his negatives on the mental side," says one scout. And Grizzard may pull his name out of the draft after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery last week, a setback that will cost him four months of rehab. But in Grizzard's defense, there were just as many questions about fellow Crimson Tider Gerald Wallace last year before the draft, and Wallace has been a solid contributor during his rookie season with the Kings.
David Aldridge is an NBA reporter for ESPN.
| |
|
