America's Cup 1999
 Thursday, December 16
Challengers not yet ready for Kiwis
 
By Gary Jobson
ESPN

 AUCKLAND, New Zealand -- The most refreshing aspect of America' Cup 2000 is that good sailing is making the difference in performance.

All six of the teams that survived the three prelinary round-robins earned their spots in the semifinals through good tactics, improving on boat handling and making fine adjustments in their boatspeed. Although there were breakdowns and crew mistakes, the overall progress by the challengers is encouraging as one of them prepares for the showdown with Team New Zealand on Feb. 19, 2000.

Young America
Young America's Round 2 disaster spelled doom for a team that entered the competition as one of the favorites.

Over the course of 30 races each spread between three round robins, several trends developed that give us a clue of what will happen next. As of now, I still give Team New Zealand the edge in part because sailing in the Hauraki Gulf is difficult; New Zealand's skipper Russell Coutts and tactician Brad Butterworth grew up on these waters and will enjoy a major home court advantage.

The only real parallel between this year and the 1995 Cup was the performance of Young Australia. This is the same boat sailed by the Australians in 1995 and was the only boat to actually beat Team New Zealand in an individual race four years ago. The inexperienced crew (average age 19) were not that slow compared to the new boats.

Team New Zealand, for its part, surely is going much faster with its new boats. In fact, they have ended all testing on NZL38, the boat they won the Cup with in 1995.

I like the fact that each of the Louis Vuitton Cup semifinalists seemed to be getting closer in speed -- this indicates real progress. The winning crews are adapting to the fickle Hauraki Gulf weather conditions. I doubt any team will be able to narrow the gap, however, with the Kiwis in the next two months.

Here is my assessment of the performance of each of the semifinalists and the two American teams which did not make the cut:

AmericaOne
Paul Cayard is the United States' best sailor today. His design team, led by Bruce Nelson, has done a good job. AmericaOne is the only challenger to have had the discipline not to sail its new boat, USA61, in the early round robins. If their new boat is faster than USA49, they will reach the Louis Vuitton Cup final easily.

Scouting the semis
Looking forward, I believe AmericaOne and Nippon will reach the Louis Vuitton Cup final because Cayard and Gilmour are the best skippers. Leadership is everything in this game and both have been through the Cup many times. Gilmour is in his fourth campaign, Cayard his fifth.

Stars & Stripes has a great crew but lacks a fast, all-around boat. America True has been the Cinderella story of this America's Cup; I think they could end up third or fourth in the trials. I may be on a limb but I have a feeling Prada falls short. The French will end up sixth. They are better in light wind than in strong breezes.

If the challengers, as a group, continue to refrain from tuning up against Team New Zealand in any form, the challengers have a good chance of winning. If any of the challengers breaks ranks and spends substantial time tuning up Team New Zealand, the America's Cup will stay where it is.

-- Gary Jobson

The afterguard of Cayard, John Kostecki, Terry Hutchinson, Gavin Brady and Lexi Gahagan have worked well together. This team needs to improve in two areas: starting and spinnaker handling. In several races in New Zealand, the spinnaker ripped or collapsed at crucial moments; these errors cost AmericaOne three races. I'm sure Cayard and company will spend extra time in sail handling and starting drills over the Christmas recess.

Nippon
Australian skipper Peter Gilmour is ranked No. 1 in the world in match racing. He is the most aggressive helmsman on the course and protests frequently. In the early rounds this tactic did not work to his advantage as his all-Japanese crew often had trouble keeping up with Gilmour's rapid-fire tactical decisions. In the third round robin, Gilmour seemed to throttle back and the team's performance soared. Nippon's new boat, JPN52, demonstrated more speed than its first boat.

Incidentally, the umpires are actually calling for penalty turn, a big departure from 1992 and 1995 when the green flag (no penalty) seemed to fly after every incident. After every race the umpires discuss their calls with a representative from each boat. I was present in New Zealand for 20 races and have watched every single race on videotape. I did not see a single missed call. Maybe the NFL could use these guys.

America True
Dawn Riley's America True has earned the respect of everyone in New Zealand. The team's single boat performs well in all conditions. New Zealand helmsman John Cutler also grew up on the Hauraki Gulf, but additional credit for their performance goes to American Dee Smith, who was brought on late as a strategist. Smith is to sailing like Doug Flutie is to football, simply finding a way to win.

America True designer Phil Kaiko has considerable help from Heiner Meldner, who was instrumental in helping America3 with their appendage design in 1992.

Riley's team is the only co-ed boat in Auckland.

Prada
Prada's second boat, used in Round Robin 3, did not seem as fast as ITA45, the boat it used in the first two rounds. Although they only lost one race in the early rounds, this crew's defeats to Nippon and AmericaOne in the third round robin were significant. Prada has spent more money than any other group.

Having the America3 armada to trial against and a strong U.S. coaching staff has been helpful. The Italians have always folded in the past, but are working hard to change that trend.

Le Defi Francais
Ironically, it was the French who eliminated the New York Yacht Club's boat America II in 1986. Skipper Bertrand Pace sails with an all-French team. Their boat, Sixth Sense, started with a 2-8 record in Round Robin 1, but they improved dramatically to win seven straight races and earn a semifinals berth. Pace, like Gilmour is an extremely cagey match racer.

Stars & Stripes
In the last race of Round Robin 3, Dennis Conner rejoined the boat and steered around the course against the Spanish. They lost that race, but when it counted this team came through. Stars & Stripes is at her best in a strong breeze but struggles in light wind.

With Ken Read, Peter Holmberg, Tom Whidden and Peter Isler in the cockpit, there is plenty of brainpower here. This team knows how to sail when behind. In Round Robin 3, the transom blew apart, but within 72 hours, they patched things back together and came out and defeated Young America in a decisive race. Many people at the New York Yacht Club would have liked to have seen Ken Read at the helm of their boat. Read, for his part, is enjoying his ride.

Here's a final look at the two U.S. teams that didn't advance:

Abracadabra
John Kolius' Abracadabra team never seemed to get any momentum going. Lack of boatspeed, ripped sails and uneven sailing plagued this team throughout the trials. At times they won some races. For Round Robin 3, John Bertrand was added to the cockpit, but even he was unable to change Abracadabra's fortune.

Kolius handed the wheel over to Chris Larson for a number of races late in the game. Larson seemed at home at the helm; we will probably see him again in Cup competition.

Abracadabra spent considerable energy and resources building two boats. They might have been better off with the strategy of America True and Stars & Stripes, which both concentrated on making one boat excel.

Young America
Ironically, Young America chairman John Marshall lobbied hard for only four boats to be allowed in the semifinal round. As it turned out, Young America finished 7th in the 11-boat regatta.

Marshall's team spent more than Stars & Stripes and America True combined, yet failed to advance. They lost for two reasons: The crew lost crucial races in Round Robin 3 and the replacement boat lacked the necessary speed. Young America never recovered from the calamity of their first boat, USA53, cracking in half.

Curiously, the New York Yacht Club selected an afterguard who had little America's Cup racing experience. Skipper Ed Baird won the Laser Worlds but on the match race circuit he did not win a single event since being named skipper in 1995.

Neither Baird, his tactician Tony Rey nor his navigator Ed Adams had sailed in an America's Cup campaign before. Baird was an advisor to New Zealand in 1995. But coaching and competing are two different things. Jim Brady also served in the cockpit. Brady did sail with Stars & Stripes in 1995.

There will be considerable analysis by the New York syndicate for months to come. But for now Young America will be on the sideline.

Young Australia and Fast 2000 from Switzerland were never in the game. The Spanish team seemed to do better with Luis Doreste at the helm; they were just short of making the semifinal.

Gary Jobson is ESPN's lead sailing analyst.

 
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