| | Ken Griffey Jr. has done something that no one else has ever done.
No, we're not talking about his agreeing to a long-term contract for a lot less money than he's worth. Today we're talking about home runs. Taters. Circuit clouts. Whole enchiladas. With 398 home runs before he turned 30 -- that happened in November -- Griffey established a new mark, beating the previous best by 19 homers.
The table below lists the five players who hit at least 342 home runs before they turned 30. (Technical note: rather than actual birthdays, we use seasonal age, which is the age of a player on July 1 of a given season. Makes the research a thousand percent easier, and is accurate enough.)
Pre-30 Post-30
Jimmie Foxx 379 155
Mickey Mantle 374 162
Eddie Mathews 370 142
Henry Aaron 342 413
Mel Ott 342 169
Ken Griffey 398 ???
Wow, pretty amazing contrast here. Of the five, only one -- the amazing Henry Aaron -- managed to hit more than 170 home runs after turning 30. Only Aaron managed to hit even half as many home runs after turning 30 as he hit before. As a group, these five hit 1,807 home runs before turning 30, just 1,041 after. Even with Aaron in the equation, the average home-run output dropped 42 percent after 30.
Cut Griffey's home runs by 42 percent, and he hits "only" 230 the rest of the way. That would leave him with 628, No. 4 on the all-time list (pending Mark McGwire's future) but well short of Aaron.
What about Willie Mays, you ask? He certainly seems a good comp for Junior, as opposed to slovenly sluggers like Foxx and Mathews.
Mays hit 279 home runs before turning 30, 381 after. Remember, he spent nearly two seasons in the Army as well. That total is third-highest after age 29:
Babe Ruth 430
Henry Aaron 413
Willie Mays 381
Mike Schmidt 313
Willie Stargell 310
So will Griffey follow the Aaron-Mays career path, or the Foxx-Mantle-Mathews career path? Well, by all accounts at least two of those latter three fellows worried little about the maintenance of their corporeal selves. Aaron, on the other hand, took care of himself. So does Griffey, assuming he can avoid any more serious collisions with outfield walls.
And to be sure, it's easier these days for players to stay productive into their late 30s and early 40s, due largely to conditioning techniques and the wonders of modern sports medicine.
On the other hand, there are counter-balancing factors, too. What if an entire season is lost because of labor strife? It could happen, and would obviously impact Griffey's chance to top Aaron. And who knows, perhaps he'll simply retire early, as so many other great athletes have done in recent years.
Will Griffey break Aaron's record? History says that he probably will not. But you know, Griffey probably doesn't give a damn about history. So don't bet against him.
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