MLB Preview 2003

Joe Morgan

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Wednesday, March 26
Updated: March 27, 5:29 PM ET
 
These teams have inside track to October

By Joe Morgan
Special to ESPN.com

Let's take a look at the teams I believe are in the mix for the 2003 World Series (as well as one sleeper from each league). And as we preview this season, let's review how the 2002 champions got there -- because I believe their success will have a bearing on this year's eventual champion.

Races and chases
• McAdam: NL Central is race to watch
• Neyer: Is April all that important?
• Morgan: Teams in World Series mix
• Neel: Chasing 500 homers
• Polls: Who'll win races? | HR titles?
American League
Anaheim Angels
The Angels won the World Series not because of superior talent or dominant pitching or tremendous sluggers. They won because they understood what the word team means. Each player understood that he had a role in the run to the championship. Each player was able to produce and contribute in view of a single commitment -- to put the team first.

The Angels didn't have a pitcher like Randy Johnson or Curt Schilling, who shut down the Yankees in 2001. Anaheim's pitching was solid, with the bullpen the key factor, led by young phenom Francisco Rodriguez and hard-throwing closer Troy Percival. The other key for the Angels was aggressiveness. They were aggressive at the plate and on the bases, which enabled them to create offense and manufacture runs.

Anaheim's hitters wouldn't let pitchers throw a first-pitch fastball over the plate to get ahead in the count. They were aggressive from the moment they stepped in the batter's box. They also put the ball in play consistently. The '02 Angels had the fewest strikeouts in the majors (805). By contrast, the Cubs had 1,269 to lead the majors.

The Angels' aggressiveness on the bases enabled them to overcome two five-run deficits in crucial postseason games -- World Series Game 6 against the Giants and ALDS Game 3 against the Yankees.

Rodriguez
The fact that the Angels won in this manner will be reflected in the way other teams try to play this year. It's common for teams to attempt to imitate the success of other clubs and build their teams accordingly. This season, I believe we'll see teams being more aggressive than before -- taking the extra base, going from first to third, putting pressure on the defense to make plays. While many teams may try to copy the 2002 Angels, we'll have to see how many can maintain that team concept for an entire season.

The Angels made few roster moves during the offseason, so they plan to follow the same model that brought them success last year, with the same players. Based on their '02 track record, they have to be considered one of the favorites to be the last team standing come October.

New York Yankees
The Yankees added players where they needed the most help: a left-handed bat, Hideki Matsui, who will be effective with Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch; and a pitcher, Jose Contreras, who could turn into an excellent starter by the end of the season.

I expect Derek Jeter to bounce back and have an excellent year after a less-than-stellar 2002 (by his standards).

There are question marks with the age of the rotation, especially the 40-year-old Roger Clemens and 39-year-old David Wells (and even Mike Mussina, 34). There's lots of mileage on those arms. There are likewise questions about how the statements Wells made in his book will affect clubhouse chemistry. But with Joe Torre's steady hand at the helm, the Yankees are one of the favorites.

Oakland Athletics
Most people believe the A's are automatic World Series contenders because of their Big Three of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. But I'm still not convinced they have the offensive philosophy to win a championship.

The A's approach emphasizes on-base percentage, which works well during the season when you play inferior teams. But when you get to the postseason and face better pitching, you draw fewer walks and are forced to rely on the home run. This has contributed to Oakland's first-round exit the past three years.

Granted, Zito, Hudson and Mulder are probably the best trio in baseball -- although the D-Backs can form a formidable trio by putting just about anyone with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson.

The A's also must deal with the Miguel Tejada contract situation this year. I'm shocked that management would say before the season that they won't sign their star shortstop, who will be a free agent after the season. Usually, you say, "We'll evaluate that in the offseason." There seems to be some faulty logic at work there, and it will affect the A's this season.

Honorable Mention -- Minnesota Twins
The Twins are also in the World Series mix, but not quite as much as the above teams, in my opinion. Their newfound postseason experience could come in handy. And their style is similar to the Angels.

Sleeper -- Texas Rangers
They have baseball's best player, Alex Rodriguez, and one of these years their pitching and defense could come around. Will this be the season they put it together?

National League
San Francisco Giants
The Giants, the Angels' opponents in the World Series, have been rebuilt in the offseason to be more of a speed team. In last year's Series, the Giants looked more like an AL team then the Angels did. Basically, the Giants had to hit home runs to beat you. They didn't have much team speed and they didn't steal bases, so they had to hit the ball out of the park to win. Even with Barry Bonds, that can be a tough task. And it caught up with them in Game 7.

Barry Bonds
Bonds
This year the Giants have added speed guys -- second baseman Ray Durham and outfielders Marquis Grissom and Jose Cruz Jr. -- while slugging second baseman Jeff Kent departed for the Astros. The Giants want to get more runners on base in front of Bonds. Another big acquisition is third baseman Edgardo Alfonzo, who could offer protection for Bonds in the lineup.

The Giants' pitching has lots of potential. But there are also many question marks in their rotation and with their closer, Robb Nen, who had offseason surgery on his pitching arm. Nen probably won't be back at full strength for the start of the season. He pitched well toward the end of last season even though he was injured, so he knows how to persevere through pain. The trade of starter Livan Hernandez to the Expos opens up a spot for someone else -- which just means there's a different question now.

It will be interesting to see if the Giants can overcome the loss of Kent and Dusty Baker, the best manager in the baseball. It won't be easy.

Atlanta Braves
Superior pitching has been the Braves' staple during their amazing run the past decade-plus. But after Gary Sheffield and Chipper Jones, their offense is suspect. And while their overhauled rotation appears to be weaker, Greg Maddux has said that this could be the best staff the Braves have had. When he says that, you take notice.

There will be more of a race this year in the NL East -- remember, last year the Braves won the division by 19 games. But they certainly know how to win, and I expect them to be one of the NL's best teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Someday, Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson won't be the dominant, fearsome duo they are now. But "someday" won't be this year. I believe they'll be as dominant as ever in 2003. The support they get from the rest of the staff and from the lineup will determine whether the D-Backs can win a second World Series in three years.

If you get to the playoffs, two dominant pitchers can be enough, as the D-Backs demonstrated in 2001 when they beat the Yankees.

St. Louis Cardinals
When the Cardinals are healthy, they have the NL's most balanced offense. Their question marks are the bullpen and the rotation. In recent years, manager Tony La Russa has been able to mix and match and make things work. He's such a good manager; I believe he'll make it work again this season.

Sleeper -- Chicago Cubs
The hiring of manager Dusty Baker, the rotation (led by Mark Prior and Kerry Wood), and an offense led by Sammy Sosa make the Cubs an intriguing team to keep an eye on.

So these are the favorites. But remember, the Angels went from 41 games out in 2001 to the world championship in 2002. And that can happen again -- other teams have similar potential this season. But they must commit to a total team effort for it to happen. So keep this in mind on Opening Day: More than just the big-market teams have a chance to win.

Hall of Fame second baseman Joe Morgan is a baseball analyst on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball and contributes a weekly column to ESPN.com.





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