 |
 |
|
| | Thursday, October 28 | |||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||
| REPORT FILED: OCTOBER 28
A couple of weeks ago, I received a request from a reader to examine the first-round results of the 1998 draft. It takes at least four years to completely assess the results of an amateur draft, but the results of the first full season are certainly instructive, especially for first round picks that are expected to advance quickly.
Let's take a look. 1) Pat Burrell, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies (college hitter) Hit .333 with 28 homers and 90 RBI at Double-A. Showed good strike zone judgment, especially for a power hitter, and proved that his back, bothersome during his junior year of college, was healthy. Played some outfield at the end of the year to improve his chances of getting in the lineup in 2000. Definitely a future star for the Phillies. 2) Mark Mulder, LHP, Oakland Athletics (college pitcher) Was 6-7, with a 4.06 ERA in Triple-A. Mulder showed good command in his first year, but the velocity on his fastball was erratic, due to a tired arm at mid-season. He held his own in the Pacific Coast League in his first full season, no easy feat, but was seldom overpowering with his curve or change. Looks like a major league starter, but probably not a star. 3) Corey Patterson, OF, Chicago Cubs (high school outfielder) Hit .320 with 20 homers and 33 steals in Class A. Patterson is a superb athlete with developing baseball skills, including brilliant defense. He still needs to tighten his command of the strike zone at higher levels, but he is quite bright and should be able to adjust. Look for him in Wrigley within two years. 4) Jeff Austin, RHP, Kansas City Royals (college pitcher) 7-2, 3.77 in Class A, then 3-1, 4.46 in Double-A. Showed solid command of above-average stuff, but ended the year with a sore elbow. If healthy, he could see the majors late in 2000 and justify his selection quite readily. 5) J.D. Drew, OF, St. Louis Cardinals (college outfielder) Disappointed in his first major league season, but showed the combination of power, speed, and patience that still project into stardom. Don't worry Cardinals fans, he will be a fine player. 6) Ryan Mills, LHP, Minnesota Twins (college pitcher) The first big bust in the draft, Mills went 3-10 8.87, bedeviled by terrible command. He still throws 95 mph, but his mechanics are a mess, and he doesn't look like the same guy who pitched at Arizona State. He could come back, but don't bet on it. 7) Austin Kearns, OF, Cincinnati Reds (high school hitter) Got off to a slow start in Class A, but warmed up as the season progressed and finished with 13 homers, 21 steals, and a .258 average. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and work on the strike zone. Don't expect him in Cincy for at least three years. 8) Felipe Lopez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (high school hitter) Hit .277 with 14 homers and 21 steals. Also struck out 157 times, but showed a great glove. Lopez is a terrific athlete, but needs more experience to smooth out his batting stroke and learn the strike zone. Power should spike more in 2000 or 2001. 9) Sean Burroughs, 3B, San Diego Padres (high school hitter) Hit .359 and drew 74 walks in Class A. Power hasn't developed yet, but it will, as he has a beautiful swing, is very strong, and already knows the strike zone. He did make 37 errors, but that will drop with experience. Looks like a star. 10) Carlos Pena, 1B, Texas Rangers (college hitter) Hit .258 with 18 homers, with 74 walks but 133 strikeouts. A bit disappointing, but he is young for a college product, and no one has given up on him yet. Excellent glove. Look for improved numbers in the Texas League in 2000. 11) Josh McKinley, SS, Montreal Expos (high school hitter) A good athlete, but considered a second-rounder by most clubs. Hit .251 with little power or speed in the New York-Penn League. Very young, and has plenty of time to develop, but not on the fast track. 12) Adam Everett, SS, Boston Red Sox (college hitter) Hit .263 with 10 homers and 21 steals in Double-A. The second baseman of the future, paired with Nomar Garciaparra. Will be good with the glove and provide enough hitting to be a sound regular. 13) J.M. Gold, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers (high school pitcher) 6-10, 5.40 ERA in Class A. Missed time with minor arm trouble, and his velocity was down from his high school peak, which isn't unusual in a young pitcher. Not a bust, but he has work to do to justify his selection. 14) Jeff Weaver, RHP, Detroit Tigers (college pitcher) Hit the majors very rapidly, did well at first but slumped as the league adjusted and he didn't. Obviously a promising young pitcher, but we have to be concerned that he was rushed, and may not prove durable. 15) Clint Johnston, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (college pitcher) 5-6, 4.73 ERA in low Class A. Not polished for a college pitcher, has a good arm, but still learning how to pitch. Expect gradual improvement as long as he remains healthy, but unlikely to develop into a star. 16) Kip Wells, RHP, Chicago White Sox (college pitcher) 5-6, 3.57 in Class A, then 8-2, 2.94 in Double-A. Held his own in the majors, and will have a chance at the rotation in 2000. Excellent arm and knows how to pitch, but still learning to keep his mechanics consistent. Great pick. 17) Brad Lidge, RHP, Houston Astros (college pitcher) Missed almost the entire year with an elbow injury. Had some of the best stuff in college ball in 1998, but an unknown quantity at this time. 18) Seth Etherton, RHP, Anaheim Angels (college pitcher) 10-10, 3.27 in Double-A, with solid K/BB ratio. Doesn't throw hard, but is a master at hitting corners, and could see major league time in 2000. Should develop into a good number three starter. 19) Tony Torcato, 3B, San Francisco Giants (high school hitter) High school hitter was pushed to the California League. Hit .291, but showed little power. Still, a good performance for a young kid in high Class A. Keep an eye on power development. 20) C. C. Sabathia, LHP, Cleveland Indians (high school pitcher) Minor arm trouble limited his pitching time, but he ended the season healthy. Throws very hard, but needs to work on his mechanics and consistency. Typical raw, but promising, high school product. 21) Jason Tyner, OF, New York Mets (college hitter) Speedy outfielder, has almost no power, but hit .313 with 49 steals in Double-A. Draws walks and knows how to get on base, giving his speed real value. Lack of power will prevent true stardom, but should be a valuable player. 22) Matt Thornton, LHP, Seattle Mariners (college pitcher) Arm trouble limited him to 25 games in Class A, with 4.91 ERA and 25 walks in 29 innings. Throws hard, but very raw. Don't expect a quick promotion. 23) Bubba Crosby, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (college hitter) Star college outfielder didn't see his power translate to wood, hitting .296 but with just one home run. He did steal 19 bases, and should increase his power output as he gains experience. Needs a good Double-A year in 2000 to stay on track. 24) Andy Brown, OF, New York Yankees (high school hitter) Hit .214 with 97 strikeouts in the New York-Penn League. Has raw power, but obviously needs to learn how to hit, focusing on the strike zone like most raw young hitters. 25) Nate Bump, RHP, San Francisco Giants (college pitcher) Pitched adequately in Double-A, later traded to the Marlins. Bump has good stuff and control, but experienced some arm soreness, which limited his stamina and may have cut his velocity. Will be promoted fast in Florida if he does well. 26) Rick Elder, OF, Baltimore Orioles (high school hitter) Hit .329 with 10 homers in the Appalachian League. Looks great so far, with a very quick lefthanded bat. Will play full-season Class A in 2000, and could make some noise. 27) Chip Ambres, OF, Florida Marlins (high school hitter) Hit .267 with 11 steals in the New York-Penn League. An excellent athlete, but still learning how to play baseball. Like many Marlins players, he has great tools, but isn't really great at using them. 28) Matt Roney, RHP, Colorado Rockies (high school pitcher) Injured all year, not what you want to see in a high school pitcher. Could be a bust. 29) Arturo McDowell, OF, San Francisco Giants (high school hitter) Athletic outfielder with good speed, but extremely raw. Hit .222 in the California League, which was better than many people thought he could do, moving into high Class A with little experience. 30) Matt Burch, RHP, Kansas City Royals (college pitcher) 3-11, 6.35 in low Class A. Yuck. Has a good arm, but his command is poor and he needs to lose weight. Looks like a bust right now. 52) Matt Belisle, RHP, Atlanta Braves (high school pitcher) Second-rounder was the Braves first draft pick. 2-5, 4.74 in the Appalachian League. Throws hard, needs to sharpen his command and control, but bright enough to do so. Don't underestimate Braves pitching prospects. 103) Darryl Conyer, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (high school hitter) Third-rounder was Arizona's first pick. Extremely athletic, hit .263 and stole 20 bases in the Pioneer League. Standard raw tools player who will have to prove himself in full-season ball. 132) Josh Pressley, 1B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays (high school hitter) Fourth-round pick was Tampa's first choice in the draft. Hit .243 with nine homers in low Class A. Scouts love his power potential, but it is still mostly potential right now. Not on the fast track. John Sickels is the author of the STATS 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE Down on the Farm archive
 | |||||