| | REPORT FILED: SEPTEMBER 30
The Boston Red Sox and the Texas Rangers are both headed to the playoffs this year, and both have interesting third base prospects ready for whatever happens next season.
Wilton Veras
Boston Red Sox
Position: 3B Height: 6-2 Weight: 186 Born: 1/19/78 Bats: Right Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1998 |
Trenton |
AA |
126 |
470 |
70 |
137 |
27 |
4 |
16 |
67 |
15 |
66 |
5 |
4 |
.291 |
.319 |
.468 |
| 1999 |
Trenton |
AA |
116 |
474 |
65 |
133 |
23 |
2 |
11 |
75 |
23 |
55 |
7 |
6 |
.281 |
.318 |
.407 |
Red Sox fans are celebrating two consecutive post-season appearances for the first time since the days of Babe Ruth. Even people who frequently call for the summary execution of Dan Duquette have to admit that he knows more about player evaluation than most of his fellow GMs.
One decision that Duquette and his operatives will have to make within the next year or so is what to do about third base. Veteran John Valentin and rookie Wilton Veras have split time there this month. Valentin has been a solid player, but he turns 33 in February, is injury-prone, and is obviously on the downward slope of his career. Is Veras the man to replace him?
The issue is less clear than it may appear on the surface. Veras is hitting .292 in 34 games for the Red Sox this year, and the general consensus among Red Sox faithful is that he is a potential star. The Red Sox have been pleased enough with him that they traded Cole Liniak, a pretty decent prospect in his own right, to the Cubs. The danger here is the limited sample: 34 games, 113 at-bats. If you look deeper at Veras, he has weaknesses.
Let's be clear about one thing: I am NOT saying that Veras isn't a prospect, or that he doesn't have the ability to be an excellent major league player. He's just 21, and anyone that age that can hold his own in the majors has ability. If you watch him play, it is obvious that he has great natural talent, with a good combination of bat speed, ability to make contact, and power potential. Like most young players, he will make his share of defensive errors, but he has the range and arm to be a solid defensive player with more experience.
The problem for Veras right now is that his offensive skills are shallow. Yes, he has a nice batting average, but his power is still largely untapped, mainly due to weak strike zone judgment. He doesn't strike out excessively, but he doesn't draw many walks, and his inexperience shows at the plate. His power production actually decreased at Trenton in 1999, compared to what he did there in 1998. Young players usually improve in their second shot at a level, not stagnate or get worse.
Looking past the pretty batting average in Boston, we see a player with a lot of natural talent, but whose overall offensive contributions will be mediocre in the near future. If you stick Veras in the lineup everyday in 2000, he is likely to hit .270-.280, but with a low on-base percentage and inadequate power. He will improve on that in the long run, but anyone who expects super numbers from Veras anytime soon is way off base.
Mike Lamb
Texas Rangers
Position: 3B Height: 6-1 Weight: 185 Born: 8/9/75 Bats: Left Throws: Right
| Year |
Team |
Level |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
SB |
CS |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
| 1998 |
Charlotte |
A |
135 |
536 |
83 |
163 |
35 |
3 |
9 |
93 |
45 |
63 |
18 |
7 |
.302 |
.356 |
.429 |
| 1999 |
Tulsa |
AA |
137 |
544 |
98 |
176 |
51 |
5 |
21 |
100 |
53 |
65 |
4 |
3 |
.324 |
.386 |
.551 |
Todd Zeile is having a strong year for the playoff-bound Rangers, but at age 35, he is hardly the long-term solution at the position. Although many professional talent evaluators still have doubts about him, third baseman Mike Lamb looks like a potential replacement to me.
Lamb was drafted in the seventh round in 1997, out of Cal State-Fullerton. He had hit .379 there, but wasn't particularly well-regarded by scouts, who thought he would lack power with the wooden bat, and wouldn't be a productive hitter without aluminum assistance.
He's done nothing but hit in the pros. Lamb hit .335 in the Appalachian League after signing in 1997, then hit .302 in the Florida State League in 1998. He showed solid strike zone judgment at both stops, as well as improving defense at third base, but he still lacked power, and was a bit old for the level of competition.
The true test for any player is Double-A; the jump between that level and A-ball separates the wheat from the chaff in most cases. I generally like underdog players, and expected Lamb to continue hitting for average at Tulsa, but he went well beyond that and added power to his game. The 21 homers and .551 slugging percentage are nice of course, but notice the 51 doubles. That's an indication that his power increase is genuine, and not just some sort of statistical or park-induced fluke. That said, Lamb's swing is still line-driveish, and I don't think he is going to be hitting 30 homers in the majors anytime soon. Given his solid strike zone judgment, I do expect him to maintain his batting average as he moves up, with lots of doubles, and 20 homers in his peak power seasons.
Lamb's defense draws mixed reviews; he makes a few errors, but has a strong arm and adequate range. If his bat holds up, his glove shouldn't cost him a job.
The main problem for Lamb is the ticking clock: he is 24, getting old for a prospect. I doubt the Rangers will want to give him a chance until he proves he can hit in Triple-A, which means he may be 25 or even 26 before his chance comes.
In a very real sense, Lamb is the opposite of Wilton Veras. Lamb is a better hitter right now and would do more to help a major league club in the short run than Veras would. But Veras is younger, and has a higher ceiling. Which do you prefer?
John Sickels is the author of the STATS 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.
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