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| | Thursday, September 23 | |||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||
REPORT FILED: SEPTEMBER 23
Every time I write something including the words "in the year 2000," all I can think of is the recurring Conan O'Brien sketch "In The Year 2000," where he and his sidekick make inane predictions for the year 2000. Things like, "Airplane travel will be ... better," or, "Scientists will develop tortoises that live ... longer."
Getting out our flashlights, let's take a look into the future of baseball in the year 2000. This season has seen many young players break through with excellent seasons: Brian Giles, Magglio Ordonez, Shawn Green, Tony Batista, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney, Fernando Tatis, Sean Casey ... some of these names we expected, others not.
Who might break through in the year 2000? Here are some players I think are good candidates for that distinction. They are in no particular order. Also note that no pitchers will appear on this list ... my psychic powers are only so strong.
A rookie disappointment, yes. He will still be an awesome player. His career slugging percentage is .483, which is pretty good for a 23-year old. Despite his slumps and nagging injuries, he has drawn a good number of walks, has stolen 18 bases in 20 attempts and hasn't struck out at a frightening pace. If healthy, he will reward the Cardinals' faith. Todd Walker, 2B, Twins Walker was excellent in 1998, but while he has maintained his batting average in the .280s this year, his home run production has dropped off. On the other hand, he is still hitting doubles at a very nice clip, which is usually a sign of power to come, and his minor-league track record indicates he has a 20+ homer season in him somewhere. Walker turns 27 next May, making him a prime candidate for a breakout season. Troy Glaus, 3B, Angels Glaus has shown good power this season, but his batting average and on-base percentages have been disappointing for the Angels and his fantasy owners. He draws a good number of walks, which is a solid sign for the future, despite his high strikeout rate. Remember, he is barely two years out of college, and was rushed to the majors in 1998. If next year isn't the year, 2001 will be. Shannon Stewart, LF, Blue Jays Putting Stewart on a "breakout" list seems odd, since he is already a terrific player. But I think he has the ability to be even better. His combination of speed and on-base percentage is already sound, but I think there is a power spike here ready to happen, which would make him one of the most complete players in the league. Trot Nixon, RF, Red Sox Jimy Williams and Dan Duquette deserve credit here; they didn't give up on Nixon after his slow start, and he has been excellent during the second half. Nixon also deserves praise, of course; he didn't let his slow start get him down mentally, which is a very good sign, since he had a habit of pressing too hard when things went poorly in the minors. He has command of the strike zone, and I think his power will blossom next year. Gabe Kapler, CF, Tigers Some people regard Kapler as a major disappointment this year. I don't; he's held his own in the majors despite little Triple-A experience, and has shown enough to convince me he can be a complete hitter. The power is obviously here; he just needs to get his batting average and on-base percentage several notches higher. Based on his track record, I think that will happen. Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies What? Why is he on this list? He's hitting .321, slugging .588. His on-base percentage is .395. The thing is, he hasn't hit his ceiling yet. I'm putting him on this list because I think Helton will threaten to win the batting title next year, will show an uptick in power, and be an MVP candidate. He's damn good now, but Helton has Larry Walker-like ability. Bill Mueller, 3B, Giants Mueller is one of my favorite unsung players, a career .297 hitter who lacks the power to get much attention playing third base, but is more valuable than many more-heralded players because he knows how to get on base. I think he could hit .330 one year. Why not next season? Adrian Beltre, 3B, Dodgers Amidst the wreckage of the Dodgers' season, Beltre has done a fine job, getting on base at a reasonable clip and showing tremendous power potential. Remember, he is just 21. Anyone who can hit .275 in Dodger Stadium, at age 21, has a brilliant future ahead of him. That brilliance should start to shine brightly next season. John Sickels is the author of the STATS 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE  Kurkjian: The new stars
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