Down on the Farm
MLB
Scores/Schedules
Standings
Statistics
Transactions
Injuries
Players
Weekly lineup

 Sunday, September 19
Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns
 
By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com

 REPORT FILED: SEPTEMBER 16

Here's a look at two 1998 first-round picks who showed a great deal of promise in their full-season debuts: Felipe Lopez of the Toronto Blue Jays, and Austin Kearns of the Cincinnati Reds.

They are very different players, one is a flashy shortstop while the other is a corner outfielder. Both have a lot of talent, but there are some question marks they need to answer before we know exactly how good they can be.

Felipe Lopez
Toronto Blue Jays
Position: SS Height: 6-0 Weight: 175 Born: 5/12/80 Bats: Switch Throws: Right

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1998 St. Cath. A 19 83 14 31 5 2 1 11 3 14 4 2 .373 .395 .518
1999 Hagerstown A 134 537 87 149 27 4 14 80 61 157 21 13 .277 .351 .421

The Blue Jays selected Felipe Lopez with their first-round pick last year, eighth overall in the draft. They gave up their second and third round choices to sign marginal free agents Randy Myers and Darrin Fletcher, so much rides on the shoulders of Lopez. From a high school in Altamonte Springs, Florida, Lopez has excellent athletic ability, but is still learning how to use it on the field.

In high school, Lopez impressed scouts with his tremendous athletic ability and flashy actions with the glove. There was mixed opinion about his bat; some observers liked the wiry strength in his body and projected him as a Tony Fernandez-type offensive player, while others doubted whether he would hit much against pro pitching.

The early indications are that the optimists were right, although the jury is still out to some extent. Lopez was terrific in limited action after signing last year, and held his own in the South Atlantic League this season. A switch-hitter, he definitely has bat speed, and considerable line-drive power which should increase as he matures. He draws a decent number of walks, but his strikeout rate is very high.

He can make contact when he is concentrating, but sometimes he is overaggressive, while other times he is too patient. He basically needs more experience at this point, like most raw-but-promising hitters.

It will be interesting to see what happens to his walk and strikeout rates as he moves up. They will need to improve if he is to maintain his on-base percentage and power development.

In the field, Lopez demonstrates outstanding range, soft hands, and a strong arm. He made 35 errors this year, but that isn't damning on low-Class A playing fields. It isn't unusual to see talented shortstops making 50 errors a year at that level. Further experience and better playing conditions will likely lower his error rate thus making him an outstanding defensive player.

The Blue Jays have a top-notch talent here, but they need to be careful in how they handle him. He still has some holes in his game, and will be best served by moving up a level at a time, rather than being rushed too quickly. Given the play of Tony Batista at shortstop this year, as well as the presence of a hopefully healthy Alex Gonzalez in 2000, the Jays have no reason to rush Lopez.

Austin Kearns
Cincinnati Reds
Position: OF Height: 6-4 Weight: 210 Born: 5/20/80 Bats: Right Throws: Right

Year Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS BA OBP SLG
1998 Billings R 30 108 17 34 9 0 1 14 23 22 1 1 .315 .433 .426
1999 Rockford A 124 426 72 110 36 5 13 48 50 120 21 8 .258 .346 .458

For years, the Reds farm system has been one of the worst in baseball. Jim Bowden and his staff, however, have worked hard on improving the system and results of that hard work are starting to show. One of their major coups was the signing of Lexington, Kentucky, high school slugger Austin Kearns in the first round last year.

Kearns was born eight days after Lopez in 1980, but they are very different talents. Kearns first got the attention of scouts as a high school pitcher in 1997, and was also a star hitter for the Team USA Junior squad. He entered the 1998 season projected as a first-rounder on the mound, but disappointing pitching performances dropped his stock.

The Reds remained impressed with his power bat, and pulled the trigger on him with the seventh-overall pick in the draft, one spot ahead of Lopez. Part of this was because Kearns' bonus demands were reasonable, and coming from northern Kentucky made him something of a local talent.

Kearns was excellent in the Pioneer League after signing in 1998 though he didn't show a great deal of power. He, however, has shown he can hit for average and can control the strike zone.

He got off to a terrible start at Rockford this year, striking out far too much, and hitting for neither power nor average early in the season. The Reds stuck with him though and he persevered, turning his season around in the second half to finish with non-awful numbers.

He has excellent bat speed and power potential, but got into trouble early when he tried too hard to hit for power, losing control of the strike zone in the process. His second-half turnaround is a good sign, although his overall numbers still show a too-high strikeout rate, and marginal walk level.

Kearns is a heady player in other ways. He runs well for a big guy, but steals bases primarily through intelligence and technique rather than raw speed. He has a strong arm in the outfield, as befitting a former pitcher, and will be fine in a corner spot defensively.

His future depends primarily on how his bat develops. I wouldn't rush him, but considering how well he hit against good competition in high school, and how well he controlled the strike zone in admittedly limited action at Billings in 1998, my instinct is that his bat will come around.

Kearns should be watched closely in 2000. He isn't the sort of player you want to make a long-term fantasy investment in at this point, but Cincinnati boosters, as well as pure, non-fantasy oriented baseball fans should pay attention to him.

John Sickels is the author of the STATS 1999 Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com.