I'm not saying that the quality of a team's bullpen is the most important factor in determining team success. You need good starting pitching and an offense that can score, too. But if relief pitching was much less important than these other things, we'd see more mediocre-to-poor bullpens carried into October by their offenses and starting rotations.

How do bullpen rankings compare with those of starting pitchers and offenses? Quite well, as it turns out.

As I noted above, of the 30 teams that finished in the top three in their respective leagues in bullpen OPS, 21 made the playoffs. If we look at starting pitchers the same way, we find that 20 of those top 30 teams made the playoffs. And 18 of the top 30 offenses were still alive in October.

If anything, that suggests that bullpens might be slightly more important than the other two elements, though the sample is small enough that we cannot jump to that conclusion. Besides, there's some evidence that points in the other direction, too. A few more below-average bullpens (seven) made the postseason than did below-average rotations (five) or offenses (four).

Overall, these rankings tell me that all three facets of the game are very important, and it's hard to argue that any one of them is more important than the other two. And that comes as a surprise to me.

I would have predicted that bullpen rankings were less significant than the other two, if only because of playing time. Starting pitchers work twice as many innings as relievers, and a team's offense is on the field for the entire game, not just part of it. You'd think starters and offenses would carry more weight simply because they have a lot more opportunities to affect the outcome of a game.

Nevertheless, for the past five seasons, it has been every bit as important to finish in the league's upper echelon in relief pitching. That must mean that relief innings have a disproportional impact on winning and losing in today's game.

There was a time, much earlier in baseball history, when relief pitchers were used mainly to mop up after a starter failed to do his job. A starter with a lead was expected to go the distance, so relievers got most of their work in losing efforts.

Thirty or 40 years ago, complete games were less common but still plentiful by today's standards. You'd see a lot of games where the starter closed it out on his own or handed the ball directly to the closer.

Now, with hitters being more patient and pitch counts being monitored so closely, teams rely more and more on their bullpens to close out their victories. And it's not just the closer any more. Bullpens need to be deeper than ever because they are now tasked with both the traditional mopup role and the ability to take the ball from the starter in the sixth or seventh inning and hold a lead to the end.

If relief pitching really has become as important as starting pitching and run scoring, this may create an opportunity for teams with smaller budgets to gain a competitive edge. Middle relievers tend to get paid less than players in other roles, and some of the teams that rose to the top of the relief rankings did so without spending a lot of money. And some of those teams were still playing in October.

This also has some implications for the remainder of the 2003 season. Several contenders -- the Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Braves, and Cardinals -- currently sit near the bottom in bullpen OPS. It's still early, so their low rankings may be a fluke, and even if they're not, there's still time to get things straightened out.

But recent history suggests that if you're counting on a strong offense and a solid rotation to carry a subpar bullpen, your chances of making the postseason (and succeeding once you get there) are not good.

This article also appears on the Diamond Mind Web site.