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| Wednesday, August 21 Updated: September 6, 2:25 PM ET Baseball's best young players By David Schoenfield and Matt Szefc ESPN.com |
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Baseball is full of young stars. ESPN's Tom Candiotti writes about two of the best in Toronto's Eric Hinske and Kansas City's Carlos Beltran. Here are the game's best baker's dozen position players 25 or younger, with some future predictions.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Dodgers He's still just 23? Yep. Beltre came up in 1998 when he was 19 years old (remember, he was thought to be 20 at the time, but actually got younger a couple years later). Considering he hit .290 with 20 home runs in 2000, Beltre was predicted to bounce back from last year's .265, 13-homer season (which featured a surgery on his appendix). In the first half, Beltre looked like a huge disappointment, hitting .238 with just 29 RBI. But he's been of the league's hottest hitters since the All-Star break, hitting .331 with nine homers and 29 RBI. Is this a career breakthrough? Prediction: Beltre is still young enough to get better and reach All-Star status.
Pat Burrell, LF, Phillies The one-time No. 1 overall pick has hit his stride in his third season -- and he's also hit some mammoth bombs and could reach 40 home runs. Burrell strikes out a ton, but he still has a decent average and draws lots of walks. Defensively, he's adequate with a good arm for left field, but first base may be his position of the future. After starting the year hitting seventh, Burrell has moved into the cleanup spot. Expect him to stay there for a long time. Prediction: He got squeezed out of the All-Star Game this year, but he'll be there in the future.
Eric Chavez, 3B, Athletics Chavez has been the A's regular third baseman since 1999 and has improved steadily in nearly every offensive category since then. He has had to assume an even greater role this year with the departure of Jason Giambi and though his batting average is down a bit and his strikeouts are up, overall he has provided the offensive punch the A's have needed in the middle of their order. Won his first-ever Gold Glove last year and could have a stranglehold on the award for the foreseeable future. Prediction: Future All-Star.
Adam Dunn, OF/1B, Reds Dunn burst into the limelight last year when he clobbered 51 home runs between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors, including 19 in 244 at-bats with the Reds. He hasn't disappointed, being named to his first All-Star team and ranking fifth in the NL in on-base percentage. The big lefty hits left-handers as well as right-handers and has decent speed on the bases. The only negative has been a poor second half: he's hitting just .209 since the All-Star break, topped by a five-strikeout game on Tuesday. Don't be alarmed; this 22-year-old is already a premier hitter. Prediction: Future MVP
Rafael Furcal, SS, Braves Furcal was thought to be a phenom when he won the National League Rookie of the Year at age 19/20 in 2000. He was bothered by a shoulder injury in 2001, aged two years in the offseason, but has played every game this year and is on pace to score 109 runs. Defensively, Furcal has good range and a strong arm, but remains error-prone (21 errors, .965 fielding percentage). The main concern is that the two skills that made him so good as a rookie -- his basestealing and ability to draw walks -- have both deteriorated. As a rookie, he swiped 40 bases in 54 attempts, but is just 20 of 34 this year; that's not even a break-even percentage. In 2000, he drew 73 walks in 455 at-bats, one every 6.2 at-bats; this year, he's drawn a walk for every 14.1 at-bats. Prediction: Future All-Star, but not exactly competing against A-Rod and friends.
Cristian Guzman, SS, Twins Guzman's numbers are down from last year and has really been an unproductive offensive player this season. Why Twins manager Ron Gardenhire continues to bat Guzman second in the batting order is hard to figure, as his .291 on-base percentage is a killer. Another bad stat that stands out is that Guzman has been caught stealing a remarkable 13 times (he did have knee problems earlier in the season). Is having his best defensive season at shortstop, but is far from spectacular. He made the All-Star team last year, but has easily been surpassed by Miguel Tejada in the shortstop pantheon in the American League. Prediction: Average player, at best.
Andruw Jones, CF, Braves He's already hit 176 career home runs, driven in over 500 runs, made his second All-Star team and is headed for a fifth straight Gold Glove. But ... he's not quite ... what we expected? Maybe the expectations are too high. It's easy to forget he remains an extremly valuable player, with power, walks and great defense. He hasn't quite matched the Stats and Prospectus projections. Was the .303 average in 2000 an aberration? If he can do that again, he'd be an MVP candidate. Prediction: All-Star regular, MVP candidate.
Austin Kearns, RF, Reds The Reds had a pretty good draft in 1999: Kearns in the first round and Dunn in the second. Despite only half a season above Class A (he missed half of 2001 with a thumb injury), Kearns has hit for average, power and drawn walks in his rookie season. Kearns hit for power early on, struggled in June (.215), went homerless in July, but has hit .373 in August. He's hit righties, lefties, at home and on the road. He's also a solid right fielder with a strong arm. Prediction: Future MVP candidate.
Corey Patterson, CF, Cubs Patterson was once projected as a future superstar, but the fanfare dropped last season after he hit .253 in Triple-A and .221 in 131 at-bats with the Cubs. In his first full season, Patterson has matched the preseason predictions. He had a hot April (.333), slumped after that, and has bounced back in August (.307). He has the speed to be a top leadoff hitter (17 steals in 19 attempts), but his strikeout/walk ratio is disturbing (105 K's, but 18 walks, including just eight after April). A left-handed hitter, he's also been useless against lefties (.211, 545 OPS). Defensively, he could be a future Gold Glover. Prediction: Possible All-Star.
Albert Pujols, LF, Cardinals Pujols isn't quite having the season he had last year (.329-37-130) when he ran away with the NL Rookie of the Year Award, but he's already a star and will continue to be for years to come in the cleanup spot for the Cards. Remember, Pujols is just 22 (if you believe that's his actual age) and should have more than a decade worth of big-time production remaining in his bat. With St. Louis' acquisition of Scott Rolen to play third base, Pujols now appears set to have a permanent home in left field, which should only help his offense. Prediction: Perennial MVP candidate.
Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies In his second full year in the majors, Rollins made the NL All-Star team for the second time after having a solid first half. He's fallen off since the break, however, hitting just .222 and because of that is far off his preseason projections. Has tremendous speed (has a combined 69 stolen bases over the last two years), but needs to improve his strike zone judgment (40 strikeouts and just 13 walks since the break, during which time he's had just a .298 OBP) in order to be a productive leadoff hitter. He could be a future Gold Glover at shortstop. Prediction: Perennial All-Star.
Alfonso Soriano, 2B, Yankees Talk about exceeding projections. Soriano has taken the AL by storm and is a strong candidate to win the AL MVP Award. He's already reached 30-30 and with a strong finish has an outside chance of reaching 40-40. Doesn't draw walks (just 19 in 538 at-bats), but makes up for it by being a hitting machine (has 162 hits, third-most in the AL). Projects to be a future middle-of-the-order hitter, where he could hit in the neighborhood of 50 home runs. Has improved defensively at second base, but with his great speed would seem to be a perfect center fielder down the road. Prediction: Perennial MVP candidate.
Vernon Wells, CF, Blue Jays Given the starting center-field job to begin the season, Wells has basically lived up to his projections, though his on-base percentage (.298; 21 walks in 455 at-bats) is lower than expected and needs to improve dramatically if he's going to be an above-average offensive player. He's in his first full year in the majors, so he needs to be given time to adjust to major-league pitching. He could be a future Gold Glover in center field. Prediction: Possible All-Star. Others: Hank Blalock, Sean Burroughs, Aubrey Huff, Nick Johnson, A.J. Pierzynski, Aramis Ramirez.
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