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| Friday, June 21 Crowded outfield for NL All-Stars By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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It's been a tough year for the Brewers. They have the worst record in the National League. Geoff Jenkins just suffered a gruesome season-ending ankle injury. And their "former" owner keeps getting bashed in the media. However, as the only Brewers fan here at ESPN.com pointed out to me the other day, at least they'll have two All-Stars when Milwaukee hosts the Midsummer Classic. Sure enough, when looking through all the stats and roster spots in determining the 30 players who will likely compose the National All-Star team, it appears two Brewers will be named. The difficult choice that Bob Brenly faces this year -- the starters and reserves will be announced on June 30, although MLB has added a new twist in that fans will select the 30th player -- is a crowded outfield with no less than 16 viable candidates. Here's a prediction on who will (as opposed to who should) make the team.
Arizona Diamondbacks Did you know Curt Schilling ranks 18th in the NL in ERA? I think he'll somehow worm his way onto the team anyway. Kim is a lock with 19 saves and 1.25 ERA. Most impressive, 10 of those 19 saves have been more than one inning. The closer with as many 20 saves of more than one inning? Doug Jones in 1990. Miller is one of several candidates to back up Mike Piazza and while his numbers are slightly superior than the other catchers, he also has an advantage in that his manager is picking the team. It will be hard for Brenly to leave Spivey off the team -- he's due back from his hamstring injury on June 26 -- but six Diamondbacks may be stretching things a bit. Prediction: Johnson, Schilling, Kim, Gonzalez, Miller
Atlanta Braves Chipper Jones has started the last two games at third base (interestingly, he didn't even make the All-Star team in his 1999 MVP season), but his lack of power so far probably means he won't make it in the outfield. Andruw Jones, however, makes it for his combination of all-world defense and improved hitting. Glavine has been the best pitcher in the NL and could start; the last time he started, in 1992, he allowed nine hits and five runs in 1 2/3 innings. Maddux is always a candidate and is currently 7-2; there's nothing ever wrong with putting him on the team, although he'd probably enjoy three days of golf just as much. Prediction: Glavine, Andruw Jones
Cincinnati Reds Surprisingly, despite their fine record, the Reds really have just two All-Star candidates (sorry, Elmer Dessens fans). Dunn is part of that crowded outfield scenario and while he ranks seventh in the league in OPS, he'll get squeezed out, giving Graves (21 saves, 2.63 ERA) the lone Reds' spot. But I suspect we'll be seeing Dunn here the next decade. Prediction: Graves
Chicago Cubs He'll start, and deservedly so. Prediction: Sosa
Colorado Rockies Helton is gaining momentum and has passed Jeff Bagwell in the voting. He's clearly the best first baseman in the NL right now. Zeile could make it at third base if Mike Lowell passes Scott Rolen in the voting. As for Walker, let's run the numbers for the outfielders. Sosa, Barry Bonds and Vladimir Guerrero are way ahead in the voting, so here are the top reserve candidates: Player AB HR RBI AVG OPS Berkman 257 22 62 .280 988 Burrell 241 17 48 .303 982 Dunn 226 14 45 .314 1018 Edmonds 179 13 37 .330 1087 Giles 225 17 40 .314 1060 Gonzalez 255 15 51 .294 940 Green 255 21 56 .290 995 A. Jones 269 18 51 .294 953 Klesko 228 13 39 .307 949 Walker 222 15 54 .333 1032 How can you leave any of those guys off the team? Unfortunately, they can't all make it. Berkman and Giles are legit candidates and the best candidates from their teams. For all the humidor talk at Coors Field, Walker has still hit 12 of his 15 homers at home. Plus, the Rockies are four games under .500. There may not be enough room. Prediction: Helton
Florida Marlins Lowell is having the best year of any NL third sacker. Castillo hasn't matched the overall hitting production of Spivey or Jose Vidro, but may edge his way onto the team ... especially if that hitting streak is still alive come June 30. Prediction: Lowell, Castillo
Houston Astros What's up with the current weak group of NL first basemen? Bagwell is a candidate only because he's Jeff Bagwell, not because he's have a typical Bagwell year (11 HR, 35 RBI, .268). Oswalt has a chance if he can reel off two or three wins before the break. Prediction: Berkman
Los Angeles Dodgers Where would the Dodgers be without Perez and Gagne, two guys who certainly weren't expected to do this. Perez ranks second in the NL with a 2.52 ERA and is 8-3. Gagne has been absolutely lights out as the closer. He leads the majors with 25 saves, but his other numbers are even better: .143 opponents' average 52/4 K/BB ratio, just one blown save. Ishii hasn't really pitched as well as his 11-2 record indicates and he's averaged just 6.0 innings per start, but he'll make the team with those 11 (or 12) wins. Prediction: Green, Perez, Gagne, Ishii
Milwaukee Brewers And now the Brewers, a franchise that has had more than one All-Star just once since 1988 (that was 1999, when Jeromy Burnitz and Dave Nilsson made it) and whose recent All-Stars have included such luminaries as Bob Wickman, Ricky Bones, Kevin Seitzer and Dave Parker (12 years past his prime). However, this year will be different. Sexson ranks third in the NL in RBI and has lifted his average (.294) as he's cut down on his strikeouts. Hernandez hasn't cut back on his whiffs (major-league leading 87) but his all-around numbers mean he'll make the team. With Rich Aurilia's injury, Edgar Renteria is the only other NL shortstop having a good year at the plate: Player AB HR RBI AVG OPS Hernandez 236 13 37 .288 873 Renteria 231 3 31 .290 780 Renteria plays on the better team, but Hernandez has been a little more productive. And don't you think Bud would love to have two Brewers for the home fans? Prediction: Sexson, Hernandez
Montreal Expos Vidro trails Roberto Alomar by less than 9,000 votes, so it's possible he may end up starting; he should make it either way. Prediction: Guerrero, Vidro
New York Mets Piazza will be elected to start his ninth consecutive All-Star Game (he missed the 2000 game with an injury). Alomar presents an interesting dilemma if he's not chosen to start: Does Brenly pick him, especially with other second basemen having better years? Astacio is currently 7-2 with a 2.71 ERA; if he's 9-2, 2.50 in nine days, it will be hard to leave him off. Prediction: Piazza, Alomar
Philadelphia Phillies Rolen doesn't deserve to start over Lowell, but he's really the only "big-name" third baseman in the league, so will probably win the fan vote. Surprisingly, Rolen has never made the All-Star team (kind of makes you wonder what all the fuss is over). Rollins will be going to his second game in his two years in the majors. Burrell and Padilla, regrettably, face roster crunches at their positions, and Philadelphia's terrible record won't help their cause; it's hard to pick four All-Stars from a 30-39 team. Prediction: Rolen, Rollins
Pittsburgh Pirates "Mike Williams" doesn't exactly ring All-Star, does it? Prediction: Giles
St. Louis Cardinals Edmonds might have been a lock, but he missed 15 games on the DL. Isringhausen has been dominant (15/16 saves, 1.08 ERA), but a lot of NL closers are having terrific seasons, and he's missed some time with an injury. Pujols might make it as the backup third baseman if Lowell edges Rolen in the voting. The Cardinals are in first place, but may get just one All-Star. Prediction: Morris
San Diego Padres Hoffman isn't a token representative, as he's 19 for 19 in saves with a 1.37 ERA. Prediction: Hoffman
San Francisco Giants Aurilia and Kent were the NL's All-Star double-play combo a year ago, but are longshots to make it this year. Nen is having another great year (3-0, 17 saves, 2.10 ERA) but will Brenly risk the wrath of his division rival by picking no Giants as reserves? Prediction: Bonds, Nen Wrapping it up, here are your National League All-Stars, keeping in mind that things can change in nine days:
C: Piazza, Miller The last cuts? Junior Spivey, Larry Walker, Pat Burrell and Vicente Padilla. David Schoenfield is baseball editor at ESPN.com. |
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