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| Friday, June 7 Should Ichiro hit third? By David Schoenfield ESPN.com |
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Ichiro is playing even better than last season. His OPS (on-base + slugging) is up nearly 100 points, from 838 to 932. After ranking 26th in the AL in OPS in his 2001 MVP year, he ranks sixth in the AL heading into the weekend. He's also repeating his amazing ability to hit with runners in scoring position -- .521, following upon his .449 MLB-leading mark last season. With that in mind, and with Seattle's recent struggles scoring runs, Lou Piniella dropped Ichiro from his customary leadoff spot to the No. 3 slot in the order last Sunday. Ichiro was back hitting leadoff after just three games, so it may have been just a temporary experiment. But is it worth considering keeping Ichiro hitting third? There are two issues worth examining here:
1) The lost value of replacing Ichiro in the leadoff spot with a lesser hitter; Let's look at the first issue. Through Thursday, Seattle's leadoff hitters had combined for an 863 OPS, third in the AL behind the Yankees (929) and Twins (898). Ichiro has a 921 OPS while hitting leadoff. If Ichiro isn't hitting leadoff, Mark McLemore would get most of the at-bats there (although he is mainly a platoon player, starting against right-handers only). Anyway, here is a comparison between Ichiro to the league average OPS totals from the leadoff and No. 3, as well as Mark McLemore to the No. 1 spot and Seattle's team totals from its No. 3 hitters (mostly Bret Boone). Leadoff OPS Rank Diff. AL average 753 Ichiro 932 1st +23.8% McLemore 844 3rd +12.1% When looking at the above numbers, it's easy to see what Piniella was thinking: he had another capable leadoff hitter in McLemore and his No. 3 hitters were struggling (Boone, for instance, is hitting just .222 from the three-hole). Plus, in order to maximize Ichiro's .521 average with runners in scoring position, it makes sense to try and bat him behind hitters with good on-base percentages such as McLemore (.390) and Carlos Guillen (.371). Ahh, but one thing to remember ... Ichiro's lack of power means his .521 average with RISP is not equal to other hitters, since many of his singles are infield singles or bunts that won't score a runner from second base. As an example, Ichiro has 25 hits with runners in scoring position, but only 23 RBI. Breaking it down further, he is 8-for-14 with a runner on second base -- but with only one RBI. He is 8-for-15 with runners on 1st and 2nd -- but only four RBI. (All these numbers are available of the splits section of each player page.) For comparison's sakes, Guillen has 19 hits with RISP and 24 RBI. Bret Boone has 19 hits with RISP and 31 RBI. Johnny Damon has 19 hits and 25 RBI. Nomar Garciaparra has 27 hits and 42 RBI. Todd Helton has 20 hits and 38 RBI. Of course, none of those guys are hitting .521 and thus don't always keep the rally going like Ichiro does. What does this all mean? What should Sweet Lou do? I'm not sure. Studies have proven that batting order doesn't make as big a difference as we'd like to believe, so I don't really know if it makes more sense for Ichiro to hit leadoff or third (or even second, for that matter). One thing does seem logical, however, and that's if you have to guys who don't have power but can get on base like Ichiro and McLemore, it's nice to have a big bopper coming up behind them. You know, sort of like Bret Boone, 2001. David Schoenfield is baseball editor at ESPN.com. You can email him about this column at askespn@espn.com. |
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