Ken Griffey Jr. is expected to return to the Reds' lineup Friday night, leaving the Reds with an overabundance of outfielders, as Griffey joins Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Juan Encarnacion. The Reds have indicated five players (including first baseman Sean Casey) will split time among four positions, with Dunn sliding to first base if necessary.
Of course, you won't be sitting Griffey or Dunn at any time, other than the occasional day off (and assuming Griffey is healthy). It's also pretty ridiculous to consider benching Kearns, the red-hot rookie who sports an OPS of 1.044 entering the weekend.
So that means it really comes down to Casey vs. Encarnacion for playing time. Let's look at the numbers for 2002:
OBP SLG OPS OPS/LH OPS/RH
Casey .380 .383 763 739 775
Encarnacion .327 .505 832 669 880
And their career numbers prior to this season:
OBP SLG OPS OPS/LH OPS/RH
Casey .382 .490 872 739 915
Encarnacion .310 .444 754 789 743
Based on career numbers, it would seem wise to play Casey vs. right-handers and Encarnacion vs. left-handers. Encarnacion provides better defense in the outfield than Dunn, although Casey is probably better than Dunn at first base.
The major question for the Reds is determining if Encarnacion has improved and if Casey is on the slide. Casey's slugging percentages since 1999: .539, .517, .458, .383. That's a bad trend. And while it surely won't hurt to have the depth and versatility of all five players, the Reds would also like to improve their rotation, and it's likely Encarnacion and Casey would be used as the prime trade bait. Encarnacion's value may never be higher than it is right now, although the Reds like that he makes $1.5 million compared to Casey's $4 million.
Reds GM Jim Bowden has never been shy in pulling the trigger. Look for the Reds to keep both players through June 12 (when they finish up six interleague games at Anaheim and Texas) and then trade for a pitcher.
All about the Astros
Houston's 1-2 punch of Roy Oswalt and Carlos Hernandez is starting to assert itself as one of the best duos in the league. Oswalt is 5-2 with a 2.22 ERA while Hernandez is 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA. In 11 career starts, Hernandez has never allowed more than three runs. Oswalt's record would be even better except his bullpen has blown two games for him: on April 17, he pitched seven shutout innings against the Reds and left with a 2-0, but the Reds rallied to win 5-4 in 10 innings; and on Wednesday he left with a 2-1 lead after seven innings, but St. Louis rallied to win 3-2.
The Astros have lost four straight to drop back to four games under .500 (21-25). However, they have outscored their opponents 217 to 194, so their expected record is 26-20. Teams with the largest difference between actual and expected record (based on runs scored and allowed):
Padres +4
Pirates +3
Brewers -3
Rockies -3
Astros -5
No other team has a difference of more than two games.
Houston's bullpen has struggled, with a 4-9 record and 4.96 ERA. Billy Wagner has had just seven chances all year, so most of his 18.1 innings have come in non-critical situations (and all for $8 million). Only the Phillies (5.01) and Cubs (5.06) have worse bullpen ERAs in the NL. The Cardinals (2.64), Braves (2.71) and Reds (2.85) rank 1-2-3.
One through nine
A stroll through each spot in the batting order:
No. 1: Brewers leadoff hitters have a .269 on-base percentage and have scored just 18 runs (compared to 44 for White Sox leadoff hitters). Two contending teams with leadoff issues: Cincinnati (.283 OBP) and Atlanta (.286 OBP). Barry Larkin is hitting .196 in 97 at-bats for the Reds and Rafael Furcal continues to struggle for the Braves.
No. 2: The D-Backs ranked third in the NL with 818 runs last year. Many predicted a severe decline in their offense, with their roster another year older and Luis Gonzalez unlikely to match his monster campaign. Instead, Arizona leads the NL in scoring and is on pace for 842 runs. Junior Spivey has keyed Arizona to the best No. 2 production in baseball (944 OPS). Spivey is hitting .323 overall with a 965 OPS and 33 runs scored.
No. 3: The Mets are the only team in the majors with an OPS under 700 from the three-hole -- and they're under 600 at 575! Mo Vaughn (671 in 88 at-bats) and Roberto Alomar (556 in 64 at-bats) have done most of the damage.
No. 4: The Mariners are tied for AL lead in runs, but surprisingly are doing it despite subpar production from the cleanup spot. Seattle' collective 656 OPS is third-worst in the majors (Baltimore and Tampa Bay are worse). John Olerud, Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez have most of the ABs, but have combined for just three home runs and a .224 average.
No. 5: Last year, San Francisco's No. 5 hitters were terrible, hitting just .244 with a 714 OPS (thus, leaving Barry Bonds stranded on base way too often. They've been even more abysmal this year, hitting .219 with just two home runs and a 619 OPS. J.T. Snow (.222, 625 OPS) and Reggie Sanders (.177, 562) have combined for little production. Both have hit much better in the six-hole for some reason (Snow, 790 OPS; Sanders, 853 OPS).
No. 6: Corey Koskie returns to the Minnesota lineup this weekend. For some reason, he was hitting sixth before getting hurt. His 917 OPS in the spot has helped the Twins' No. 6 hitters score 32 runs, most in the majors. Manager Ron Gardenhire would be wise to move Koskie up in the order.
No. 7: We don't even want to mention Pittsburgh's combined .163 average from this spot ..
No. 8: Four teams have an 800 OPS here: Reds (843, Jason LaRue and Corky Miller), Red Sox (838, Trot Nixon and Jason Varitek), Expos (823, mostly Brad Wilkerson) and Phillies (801, five guys with more than 10 ABs).
No. 9: Seattle No. 9 hitters have 30 RBI, but our favorite stat is the .298 average from Colorado's ninth-place hitters ... fourth-best in the majors (and fifth-best is .261). Rockies pitchers are hitting .301 with two homers, 12 RBI and a 750 OPS!
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
